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Everything posted by dirtybirds233

  1. Trading Ryan in 2020 would result in an additional $43M cap hit, putting us at $68M over the cap for 2021. I'm fine with trading Ryan, but it can't be done until post 6/1 2021
  2. I think both are safe for 2021, but I do I think 2021 is the last time we see Ryan in a Falcons uniform. However, if we somehow get the #1 pick in the draft and take Lawrence, we can save a ton of money by trading or releasing Ryan post 6/1. If you release or trade Ryan post 6/1 in 2021 you save $17.5M and $23M respectively. Even then, the new regime might want to keep Ryan around as a mentor to hand the reigns over. There's no benefit to releasing or trading Julio until 2022, and even then you aren't saving much.
  3. I've only ever known the Falcons with Ryan at QB, and I don't own a single Falcons jersey that isn't one of Matt Ryan. This 0-5 start is not his fault, though given his age and contract along with our cap situation in 2021, we have to look towards the future at some point. Now that the preface is out of the way, let's take in mind that we are currently projected to be $26M over the cap in 2021 with only 32 players on the roster. Sure we can cut 8 certain players to get back to even, but now we're down to only 24 players on a 53 man roster and no money to spend. Here's what happens with Ryan's contract in the 2021 offseason: Pre 6/1 Release: (9M) cap savings Pre 6/1 Trade: (3.5M) cap savings Post 6/1 Release: 17.5M in cap savings Post 6/1 Trade: 23M in cap savings It doesn't HAVE to happen in 2021 nor do I expect it to. But 2021 was going to be a 'rebuild' season regardless, given the cap situation.
  4. I initially misread your comment as next year being a 12+ win season and thought 'are you f'ing kidding me, have you seen our cap space?' But yes you are right. We have outs on both Julio and Ryan's contracts in 2022, and are at a projected $150M under the cap in 2023. We make the right hire and bring in the right QB, and this team could compete for years to come 2022+
  5. Thank you. Ryan and Julio cannot be moved until 2023, and even then you're taking on some dead cap.
  6. I don't know how many times it needs to be said. We cannot trade or cut Ryan or Julio until 2023 unless they agreed to be restructured just for the sake of trading them.
  7. We're down both starting safeties, and our CB corp might be the worst in the league. Rodgers is playing like a man possessed right now. Yes it helps that Lazard and Adams are out, but I genuinely think our defense is 'that' bad that it won't matter.
  8. Won't even be a shock really. We have all the pieces on offense and Morris did a great job with the defense in the 2nd half of the season. Anything less than 10 wins would be a major disappointment.
  9. Koetter is who he is, his offensive scheme hasn't changed since he was the OC in 2012. He's the Mike Smith of OC's....refuses to change with the times.
  10. Barring injuries, there's no reason to think we won't be a playoff team. My only area of concern is at the CB position. We are incredibly young there and even if AJT turns out to be great, rookie CBs historically struggle. Oliver is average on his best day, and we won't know until the season starts if Sheff can make a jump from his rookie year. However, if the additions of Fowler and Davidson increase our QB pressures and sack numbers, that will help our young CB group tremendously. I'm also very high on Morris having full control of the defense. I think 8 wins is our floor, and I can see us going as high as 12.
  11. People can dislike them just as much as others like them. People can still love the Falcons and dislike their uniforms. My thoughts on them haven't changed. The helmet is awesome, but the 3D number shading screams high school, and the gigantic ATL is just corny. Rather than looking into an echo chamber of Falcon fans, that either hate them or love them, look at what other fans think. Everyone loved the new Bucs and Chargers uniforms, and the Pats new uniforms were more of a lukewarm reaction. When the Falcons uniform dropped, the majority of reactions from non-Falcon fans were summed up to 'terrible'. A few months ago, r/NFL did a poll that about 5k people participated in on ranking current uniforms from worst to first. The Falcons new uniform was voted 3rd worst in the NFL.
  12. I certainly hope so! Would love for him and Terrell to be bookends at the position.
  13. Not trying to argue, but I'm genuinely curious how you can say he played smarter and stopped making mistakes when he was allowing completions at a higher rate, more yards, and higher passer ratings to opposing QBs.....all while being targeted at nearly the exact same rate. If that target % goes up in the 2nd half of the season, then it makes sense that opposing QB numbers would go up against him. But it didn't, it stayed the same and his coverage numbers got worse. I get that stats don't tell the whole story, but that works more for a QB with a lot of incompletions yet his WRs are dropping a high number of passes, or a defensive lineman with low sacks but is great in QB pressures. But in the case of a CB, unless every other completion Sheff allowed were Madden style aggressive catches, or QBs are constantly threading the needle on him, his stats are telling most of the story.
  14. I can give you that. He only played 10 defensive snaps in the first 3 games, so he didn't truly have playing time until week 4. I'll start his stats from there. Games 4-10 (53 snaps per game) Completion % Allowed: 73.91% Passer Rating Allowed: 87.9 Yards Per Target: 7.73 Targets per snap: 45.3% Games 11-16 (54 snaps per game) Completion % Allowed: 82.85% Passer Rating Allowed: 109.43 Yards Per Target: 9.17 Targets per snap: 46.2% He actually had WORSE stats in the second half than in the first half of the season, while being targeted at almost the exact same rate.
  15. Slightly disagree with the first, agree with the second. Our defensive line is improved over last year, even if it's only slightly. Fowler may have been a product of Donald, but I'd take just about any starting DE in the league over Beasley. I think releasing Campbell was addition by subtraction (also note his loss of snaps to Foye during our 6-2 run). The only issues on offense were at RB and G, and regardless of potential injury, Gurley is an immediate improvement over Freeman. As for the secondary, I'm with you there. Our front 7 better come to play. Oliver is average on a good day, Sheff was one of the worst starting CBs in the league last year (though he improved game after game), and AJ is a rookie at a position with one of the steepest learning curves in the NFL. We have no idea how Neal will return from injury, and Rico is coming off of his worst season, thought that can be attributed to not playing in position.
  16. 7-9 is a pretty safe bet. Given our division history, I always just start with a base 3-3 record. Seattle - W Dallas - L Chicago - W Green Bay - L Minnesota - L Detroit - W Denver - W Las Vegas - W LA Chargers - W Kansas City - L So 9-7 is where I think we end up. But its the NFL, none of us have a clue what could happen.
  17. If anything, this should be to our advantage. We won't be playing in front of majority opposing fans 16 games out of the year like usual.
  18. My reply before that was to someone who said he was the best CB on the team last year, which would imply that they believed he was good.
  19. The large ATL and number font were my only complaints, so this is an automatic upgrade for me. Any gradient is bad though.
  20. I'll level that statistics can be misleading, but PFF (who ignores statistics for the most part in favor of watching film for every player on every snap) had him graded as the lowest rated starter on defense in 2019. So if his film is showing him as bad, and his statistics are showing him as bad.....I'm not sure how one could argue that he was good.
  21. He was one of the worst starting CBs in the NFL last year. He allowed a 75% completion rating, 110.0 passer rating, and 8.1 yards per target (not per completion, per target). He was a rookie and CB has one of the steepest learning curves from college to the pros, so I expect him to make a big jump in 2020. But as for 2019, he was downright bad.
  22. Yep, I have a Ryan authentic black throwback and don't plan on buying or wearing any other. Don't mean to beat a dead horse, but I had the money ready to go to buy one of the new ones until I saw them. Went on a nice date instead.
  23. Yep. Has as sure of hands as Hooper, while being faster and more agile. Hurst will have more TDs and yards than Hooper did in 2019, I'd bet the house on it.
  24. The subreddit r/NFL did a poll of 4,700 users to rank every current NFL jersey. The average was taken and all teams were ranked 1-32. The Falcons came in 2nd to last at 31st. Top 5: 1. LA Chargers 2. San Francisco 49ers 3. LV Raiders 4. New Orleans Saints 5. Pittsburgh Steelers Bottom 5: 32. Los Angeles Rams 31. Atlanta Falcons 30. New York Jets 29. Tennessee Titans 28. New England Patriots https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/gp78wo/uniform_survey_results/
  25. Because it's impossible to predict anything in the NFL. In 2015, we went 8-8 then to a Super Bowl the next year. In 2017 we were 5 yards away from another NFCCG, then went 7-9 the next year. In 2016, the Eagles went 7-9 then won the Super Bowl the following season. On paper the Falcons have a better front 7 then last year, and at worst the offense is the exact same as it was a year ago.
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