left is falcons opponents with who they are playing week 17, right is houston's opponents. I didn't include common opponents for atl/hou as they cancel out. several of a the teams in each list play each other, so there are guaranteed wins to add to both columns. looks like there is no way for houston opponent wins to catch atlanta wins, closest they can get is within 1. if both atlanta and houston win, we get 4th pick no matter what atlhou.xlsx
looks like the only way for us to jump houston is for them to win. there is no scenario where our strength of schedule will be worse than theirs. then again, we all know the falcons will falcon and likely beat tb to jump down >5 spots, smdh.