MD-FalconFan13

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Everything posted by MD-FalconFan13

  1. Vic is not a 7-10 sack guy no matter who is coaching. It's been proven. We don't get high picks usually because we're usually a playoff team. A #14, a mid-20s pick and Vic for a dominant DT or DE prospect.
  2. Then next years 1st will need to come out the deal. The combined value of Vic, our 1st and 2nd is more than the #3 overall
  3. That's an immediate non starter. You (and them if they'd ask for that) would be completely over valuing a #3 pick in a draft. No way is a pick just 11 spots higher worth our 14 pick, a 2nd this year, a 1st next year and a starting OLB with elite speed that was once a league sack leader. That's just too much.
  4. If the deal is Vic, our #14 and a 1st next season I'd do it no question. Bring in Quinnen and have ths money to pay Grady long term. Would have a devastating DT combo for years and the rest of the draft untouched. If they ask for more picks this year I'm leaning towards not doing it. Nothing before the 4th.
  5. Zach Allen is one of my favorite DE prospects. He's not a speed guy, which is what so many look for. He sets a great edge and can Flex inside on passing downs. He gets to the passer using power and technique rather than speed which is needed on our line.
  6. In his scenario, he traded back in the 1st netting us a later 1st round pick a 3rd rounder and a extra 5th. Actually I misquoted our pick. We'd have 2 3rds, 2 4ths and 3 5ths.
  7. I don't see the wisdom in acquiring great draft capital then trading it back for an extra 1st, even for a player I really like in Dexter Lawrence. There are a few guys that will be awesome additions if we just use the draft capital we can get a very good haul. 2 3rds, 2 4ths, 2 5ths......That's 6 chances to draft guys in the areas of the draft with the lion's share the talent. If anything I'd use some of the later picks in the 5th or 6th to move up in the 3rd or 4th for guys I like. But it would be too costly to jump back into the 1st in my opinion.
  8. I like him. Sign me up. What round is he projected to go?
  9. Yeah, he's a curious case. So many varying opinions on him its really hard to nail down where he's going to go. I've seen people ranking him as high as the #2 OT prospect to fringe top 10.
  10. Yodny Cajuste, Tytus Howard, Andre Dilliard, Chuma Edoga, Kaleb McGary, Trey Pipkins and Max Scharping are all good RT prospects that might be available in or after the 2nd round. It's not necessary to get a RT in the first. Plus we have starter caliber RTs on the roster. It's just not a big enough need to use our 1st on unless the player is one you think can be a probowler.
  11. So our 1st pick and 3rd picks wouldn't even start this year and our 2nd pick would be competing with incumbent starters for time. Meaning none of them would be full time starters. Not a fan of of that at all. I love Savage and Joseph but we have to get at least 2 impact starters out of this draft.
  12. I thought folks wanted depth? Now when we sign guys for exactly that we're unhappy? Maybe some of these guys get a starting gig but the majority are to provide quality depth. Something we sorely lacked last year. I think it's a good thing.
  13. Yeah, this argument seems pretty silly. I get that folks see Wilson's team in the playoffs more and since he doesn't have really well-known weapons and is honestly a good QB in his own right, it seems like the easy answer to give him the lion share of the credit for his team's success. But I'd argue that the Seahawks offense hasn't really had much success and certainly not success in passing. Consider for a moment that the Seattle offense has only finished in the top 10 twice in Wilson's entire career and in both years the rushing attack was top 3 in the league. Here is Seattle's offense since Wilson's arrival Total Pass Run 2012 17th 27th 3rd 2013 18th 26th 4th 2014 9th 27th 1st 2015 4th 20th 3rd 2016 12th 10th 25th 2017 15th 14th 23rd 2018 18th 27th 1st As you can clearly see, the running game has been the backbone of Seattle's offense throughout Wilson's tenure. I do get that Wilson contributes to the run game, but everyone know that the rushing attack was primarily Beast Mode. The Seahawks were a perennial contender when they had a suffocating defense and ran the ball constantly to control the clock. Since Lynch's departure in 2016, they've remained a good team but largely flawed and prone to loses against teams that have good offenses. Their passing game fluctuates wildly and the offense is extremely inconsistent. The case is the exact opposite with Matt Ryan who has been the focal point of the offense since 2011. You pretty much know that when you play the Falcons you'll need to put up points. Matt Ryan has consistently lead the passing offense to be 6th or higher 5 of the last 7 years. That's in spite of the run game being in the bottom half of the league all but 2 of those 7 years. Total Pass Run 2008 6th 14th 2nd 2009 16th 13th 15th 2010 16th 15th 12th 2011 10th 8th 17th 2012 8th 6th 29th 2013 14th 7th 32nd 2014 8th 5th 24th 2015 7th 6th 18th 2016 2nd 3rd 5th 2017 8th 8th 13th 2018 6th 4th 27th So clearly one QB is the driver of the team's offensive success and the other is the passenger for it. It should be clear which is both. As for the "Russ hasn't had the weapons" argument, that is absolutely true. Not many QBs have the weaponry that Matt has been blessed to have and Matt has taken full advantage of it. I think people assume that because a QB has weapons, he knows how to use them. Golden Tate had monster years when removed from Wilson. Jimmy Graham had monster years before playing with him. Zach MIller virtually disappeared when he came to Seattle. Even now he has some good options in Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett. Now I'm not saying Wilson is a bad QB at all, I think he's definitely in the top 8 QBs in the league. He's one of the best QBs when the pocket breaks down. He's near the top of the league at making something out of nothing. But in more ideal circumstances, there are quite a few guys that are just better read, diagnose and deliver passers. I do have the utmost respect for Wilson and think he's one of the best out there. Matt is not as good under pressure. That's not to say Matt is bad, just an acknowledgement of how good Russell is. However the same is true of Russell when it comes to scanning and breaking down defenses. He's good, but Matt is one of the best. When Matt has time, he's probably top 3-4 in the league. They are different QBs for sure. I can't say one is better than the other. They are even to me. Depends on what you value more from a QB and how your team is built. If you're starting from scratch, I'd probably take Russ. If you need a guy to come in and lead a team of vets, gimme Matty Ice.
  14. Half these folks showing up for off-season workouts won't show up in crunch time when the game's on the line. I know Julio will. That's what I care about .
  15. I don't know if using draft capital to simply motivate other current players is the best use of a draft pick. Would be more beneficial to go after the guys you're really in love with. Think of the guys we've moved up to get or guys we've specifically targeted in the 1st. Which one has been a bust?
  16. Here's the thing, if you have that feeling maybe the process of doing your own research on him will help alleviate your concerns. I'll even make it more simplistic by leaving some links here: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ed-oliver-2.html https://www.nfl.com/prospects/ed-oliver?id=32194f4c-4929-0385-df1c-0f8e40559b5a https://thedraftnetwork.com/player/ed-oliver If you still don't want to read, here are some highlights: If you're still uninterested and just want cliff notes, he's an outstanding, penetrating DT (albeit undersized) that was unreal vs the run and played out of positions at Nose Tackle for a 6'2 280 D-Lineman. He finished his 3 year career with an outstanding 53 Tackels for Loss and 13.5 sacks. He's got sub 4.8 40 time and absolutely ridiculous split times that rival some of the top WRs in the league. He's got elite get off and is one of the best mix of speed, power and consistent production in the draft.
  17. Jarrett isna good player but he ain't no top 5 DT...
  18. Mecole sitting there is very tempting. I love his speed and explosion he'd add to the offense and special teams, but I just can't pass on on Isaiah Johnson.
  19. I was asked to create a Poll based Mock that we can all participate in to select players we'd like to draft each round. This was a fun exercise for me, but I want to acknowledge @Falconsin2012 as it wasn't my idea. Thanks for the inspiration! The goal is to leave the poll open for everyone to give their opinions and then tally up the votes. Based on the feedback we'll record what TATF's consensus is and go to round 2. Let's start with my steps and philosophy: Step 1 - Assessing the Assessments: I started this off by compiling a list of players at our biggest positions of need from DT to CB to LB and OT. The prospects I began with were Q. Williams, Devin White, Montez Sweat, Jawaan Taylor, Ed Oliver, Rashan Gary, Jonah Williams Brian Burns, Cleilin Ferrel, Christian Wilkins, Devin Bush Jr, Cody Ford, Greedy Williams and Dexter Lawrence. I then began reviewing various Mock Drafts from "experts" like Reuter, McShay, Kiper, WalterFootball, PFF, Peter Schager, Ryan Wilson and Don Banks to see where these prospects were drafted. I went about the task of recording where each player was drafted in the mock drafts. This was my starting player pool and data set. Step 2 - Normalization and Valuation: Now that I've got my pool of players I calculated their average draft slot and got an idea for where they were taken. This varied greatly! Some mockers (especially PFF) had wildly different values assigned to players. When this happens, it necessitates a data normalization process to remove the drastic spikes in variability. So I removed the highest and lowest draft position for each player and used the remaining to get a final average. Step 3 - Assigning Draft Value: I used the Draft pick Value Chart to assign value. From this value I made 5 categories: red, light red, white, light green and green. Red players would represent players with that were drafted higher more often, have the highest perceived value and would cost the most to draft. These players were highly unlikely to be on the board for our pick and would require a substantially costly trade up (4-6 range). Light Red were 2nd highest in average draft position and cost greater than our 1st rounder (7-11). White players most likely to be on the board at #14 and would only cost our 1st round pick. Light Green would be available with our pick or a slight trade back (18-22 range). Dark Green were players that could be drafted in the late 1st round. These players could be drafted with big trade back and earn nice picks in return (23-27 range). Here's my chart: DARK RED -700 1st, 2nd & both 4th Trade to 4-6 LIGHT RED -250 1st, 3rd and 5th Trade to 7-11 LIGHT GREEN 225 Extra 3rd Trade to 18-22 DARK GREEN 400 Extra 2nd Trade to 23-27 Step 4 - Our Draft Currency: This is simply showing what draft capital we have to work with. Our draft capital will update with each round: 1st 1100 2nd 450 3rd 195 4th 60 4th 37 5th 30 5th 22 6th 17 7th 1 Step 5 - Finalizing the Mock Poll draft pool: The last step was to narrow the selection pool for this draft to 10 players. I looked for players that were linked to us. I quickly noticed that there weren't many links to 1st round CBs. Then noticed that there weren't many people considering moving up in range for Quinnen. The only player that graded out to be Dark Red based on the average draft position was Quinnen Williams. I haven't heard much about us moving up for him, so I didn't include him in the draft pool. Sweat, Taylor and Oliver all graded out as Light Red meaning they are unlikely to be on the board when we draft and would require a trade up to 7-11 range to draft. This would cost a bit but would be manageable for the right talent. Gary, Williams, Burns, Ferrell and Wilkins were all White so they'd likely be available with our current #14 1st round pick without trades. Cody Ford was the only Light Green and Dexter Lawrence was the only Dark Green. Let know your thoughts and if I should improve going forward
  20. ***********UPDATE *************** Heading into the final 24 hours before we advance this scenario, the Ed Oliver train is moving full steam ahead. It seems that the "trade down" crowd actually has more votes, but due to a lack of consensus on what that trade down should be for, the Oliver trade up is leading the way. If reports are correct, the Bucs are interested in Oliver now. That has no bearing on this mock as we've got him at the 8-12 range based on the mock data I used. Here are the current standings: Current vote leader standings - Ed Oliver trade up: 27 - Dexter Lawrence trade down: 19 - Cody Ford trade down: 17 Voting will stay open until tomorrow so be sure to place your votes. I'l try and have round 2 up by next Thursday Thanks for participating!! *************************************
  21. He's got more sacks the last two seasons than Vic Beasley..... 13 sacks in 2 years isn't bad. It's not as good as we'd have liked, but he's a steady contributor. I don't think we reached at all. Look at the other rushers in that draft that were available at 26. Who is better? If anything, we reached for Duke Riley....
  22. There are 4 players on this list that offer unique things that no one else offers. - Ed Oliver: Is the best mix of Athleticism, Production and upside in the draft, yes even more so than Quinnen Williams. He's a monster against the run and has untapped pass rushing abilities. 53 tackles for loss in 3 years is dominant and though I'm not sure he'll be quite the pass rusher Aaron Donald is he'll be a difference maker in his own right. - Montez Sweat: Vic Beasley ran a 4.53 and folks lost their minds. This guy ran a 4.41.... Let that sink in a bit. I think they both will have sort of the same problem in that they struggle at the point of attack and teams will make them run the arch if they don't show the ability to convert speed to power. But he offers elite speed on the outside even more than Vic does. He's got the ability to pack more muscle onto that frame and refine his counters. If he does, he can be a terror off the edge and a consistent 10+ sack guy. No other DE prospect offers his speed, strength, rush moves and upside. - Jawaan Taylor: If he's on the board by some miracle at #14 we should select him over any remaining prospect other than Ed Oliver. This guy is a near perfect RT prospect for the new direction of the O-Line. He's going to step in and be a starter from Day 1 if he can keep his weight under control and limit his false starts. This guy and our new additions will radically change our run offense and give us balance we desperately need on offense. No other OL prospect is as has the mix of size, speed and polish he does. - Dexter Lawrence: Complete unicorn in this draft. There is no 345 pound lineman running a 5.0 40. You simply wont find it. His mix of athleticism and power is truly unique. He has the ability to collapse the pocket and force doubles any time he lines up over center. He relies on his size and strength a little too much right now which causes him to get overwhelmed at times, but the potential is there. If he can get coached up he offers the upside that no other DT can offer at his size. Others than Quinnen Williams and Oliver, both of whom will be long gone by our pick unless we trade up, Lawrence is the best pocket collapsing DT in the draft.
  23. He'd be on a short list depending on who we took 1st round and who's left. Im not sure if Quinn sees RT as a big hole or not...
  24. I was on the fence between McGary and Savage and actually leaning towards the latter. Then I saw this video: Now I'm fully in the McGary corner.
  25. I've seen several mocks with Cody not even taken in the 1st round if you would believe it. The average place he tends to fall is between 18-22. I agree he's probably the pick at 14 if the team wants him but that's just the ranking based on data from what I've seen. Of course these are only based on the mock drafts I reviewed and not GMs around the league. My hands were sort of tied as I couldn't inject subjectivity into the data because then I don't think it'd be fair. I think Oliver might take more than a slight trade up but based on the data I had to give him a Light Green designation. That's what represented where he was taken most often.