Macintez

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Posts posted by Macintez


  1. 1 hour ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

    This is a very odd article.  There are parts I agree with but can’t stand the race card being used here....regardless, it’s an interesting read

     

     
     
     
    Chuck Modiano
     

    Only five quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown for more than 5,100 yards in a single season. They are: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees (four times), Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger and Jameis Winston.

    Winston, despite all you hear to the contrary, is keeping some pretty elite company

     

    What kind of numbers would he put up if given a running game or a defense? What if he had coaching stability?

    How good could he be if he cuts down on his interceptions like so many previous risk-taking QBs that eventually ended up in the Hall of Fame?

    What, these questions aren’t being bandied about on the cable sports talk shows or in the endless column inches dedicated to NFL coverage across the country?

    Nope. Everywhere you go, sports media is fixated on Winston’s interceptions instead of his 5,109 yards. If Winston were a young prolific whitegunslinger, what kind of analysis would we get from an NFL media who will yell “FitzMagic” if a below-average white QB can string together just two exciting wins in a row?

     
     
     

    Thankfully, Monday’s episode of the Dan Patrick Show, former Buccaneers and Colts head coach Tony Dungy tried to bring some attention to this. “You look at Jameis’ numbers and Peyton Manning’s numbers in those first five years, there’s not a lot of difference other than Peyton’s team won more,” Dungy said.

    Is Peyton’s former Super Bowl coach right? Let’s take a look:

    Peyton vs. Jameis Stats first 5 years:

    Peyton: 20,618 passing yards; 138 TDs, 100 INTs, 62.1 Completion percentage.; 85.9 QB rating; 4.9 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate

     
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    Jameis: 19,737 passing yards; 121 TDs, 88 INTs, 61.3 Completion percentage 86.9 QB rating; 4.7 TD rate; 3.5 INT rate

    Dungy is spot on. The two sets of numbers are almost identical.

    Manning is Winston’s greatest NFL statistical comparison after five years. Young Peyton’s superior win-loss record has more to do with his superior support, notably Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison and Edgerrin James. Winston (6-10 record) had a far superior rookie year, but Manning’s 3-13 rookie record helped land James with the No. 4 overall pick. Now consider this stat on Peyton’s first five seasons.

    35-17 with Edgerrin James

    · 7—21 without Edgerrin James

    We will come back soon to “The Edgerrin Effect” on young Peyton, and “The Bruce Arians Effect” on Jameis, but first, can we have an honest conversation about Winston’s interceptions?

    Interceptions Over Five-Year period

    100 Peyton Manning– Years 1-5

    102 Dan Marino — 1985-1989

    101 Brett Favre — 2004-2008

    93 Brett Favre — 1998-2002

    97 Joe Namath — Years 1-5

    88 Jameis Winston — Years 1-5

    Okay, now that we know Winston didn’t invent “The Interception,” let’s discuss “30.”

     
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    Peyton Manning was given all the time he needed to correct his early career INT problem. Photo: Getty

    1.  STOP SAYING “30-30 CLUB” or “30 FOR 30” OR “PICK SIX.” IT’S STUPID

    Winston’s final pass this past season was his 30th interception, and media had a field day with it as the first “30-30” TD-INT guy in NFL history. The constant “30-30” framing punishes Winston for his 33 touchdowns, second most in the NFL last season.

     
     

    Ten NFL players threw 30 interceptions before Winston, but none could hit the 30 TD mark. George Blanda once threw 42 INTs, but fell three TDs short. Ken Stabler (16-30) and Bucs record-holder Vinny Testeverde (13-35) couldn’t even reach half of Winston’s TDs.

    Peyton once threw 28 TDs. Eli threw 27 TDs. Brett Favre? 29 TDs. But none hit 30. Why? None had 626 pass attempts like Winston did in 2019. But what if they did? Let’s adjust:

    TD/INT Ratio Adjusted for 626 Pass Attempts(like Winston in 2019)

    33-30 Jameis, (2019)

    28-30 Peyton (1998)

    21-30 Brett Favre (2005)

    20-31 Eli Manning (2013)

    24-31 Ben Roethlisberger (2006)

    20-34 John Elway (1992)

    17-33 Warren Moon (1986)

    That’s right, all these great QBs matched or exceeded Winston’s 4.8 Interception rate in 2019, but not his TDs. Also, none threw for 5,000 yards in these seasons. Or even 4,000 yards.

     
     

    Others argue Winston’s 30 interceptions are “going in the wrong direction.” Nonsense. Big Ben’s INT spike came in his third season after his Steelers won a Super Bowl. Marino in his seventh year, Elway and Eli in their 10th season and Favre in his 15th. At age 40, Favre’s best season and INT rate (1.3) came with 33TDs.

    Others mention stats like “pick sixes,” otherwise known as interceptions returned for TDs. Let’s start here.

     
     

    Favre, Marino, Namath, Brees. Peyton.

    These are the NFL career leaders in “pick-sixes.” Not a bad list. When Winston set a new record with his seventh pick-six, less attention was paid to the previous co-record-holder Peyton Manning, who had six in 2001.

    Prior to 2019, Winston averaged only one pick-six per year. Why? Because it is pretty arbitrary when and if any INT is returned for a TD. That’s why there is a different pick-six leader every year. Citing this stat as if it means anything is just statistical trolling.

    Worst of all is when the media discusses interceptions like a permanent mark, not the fixable flaw that they are.

     
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    2.  INTERCEPTIONS ARE A QB’s MOST FIXABLE FLAW

    Sports Illustrated’s Andy Benoit echoed a media-wide sentiment when he said: “History says a risk-taking QB like Winston won’t change”

    Long read...click link to continue

    https://deadspin.com/you-know-who-jameis-winston-looks-like-after-five-seaso-1842526841

    I don’t think it’s the race card being played. The highlighted difference is...

     

    Peyton had a running game, while Winston did not have a running game. Expectations were too high for him, hard to meet if you’re not honest with yourself about what is needed to succeed. You need a running game!


  2. 40 minutes ago, LightningDawg58 said:

    I dont mind LB in the first. The CB most people would take at 16 is Henderson who is supposedly amazing but hates contact. Florida  connection aside, I dont see Quinn having a player with a tackling liability high on his board.

    That being said, if Chaisson is gone and Henderson is or isn't there, we could go either direction as any LB or CB would be a slight reach there. 

    Reach, however, is subjective, considering we have a tendency to "reach" for the guys we are high on, even if the Message Board GMs think we could have waited it out or traded back and still got them later.

    All that being said. I wouldnt be surprised or mad if we got Murray at 16 if that's who they decided was the best player available who  fit our need and scheme the best.

    Im prepared for us to take any of the top remaining DBs or top remaining backers with our first pick. 

    Henderson

    McKinney

    Fulton

    Diggs

    Terrell

    -

    Chaisson

    Murray

    Queen

    Those are the names we are likely to hear at with our 1st round pick. Regardless of grade, regardless of position ranking. Whoever we like the most out of this bunch (if available) is who we are taking


     

    The analysis of Henderson is what made me create this thread. Dude have cover skills but won’t tackle. Maybe it was to protect himself and draft stock but I don’t know. If he had Deion Sanders cover ability I would allow it. He does have blazing athleticism and cover skills but I just don’t know. Mental makeup and scheme fit would matter tremendously in his evaluation. If he ain’t it, we can jump on an amazing Will-LB in Murray.


  3. They will definitely be there at our pick and having two explosive elite LB’s would do wonders for our 2nd Level. We already resigned Allen Bailey and I feel like we have a good bit of money invested on the first level and I think we have a good bit of young talent on the 2nd so how about Kenneth Murray? I know he’ll be there at 16...

    Sipifalcon likes this

  4. 2 hours ago, 1989Fan said:

    Nope. TD never took a RB higher than 3rd, and even commented that’s were he sees good value in this draft. I am expecting Dobbins or Taylor if there at 47 or Akers, Edwards-Helaire, Vaughn, McFarland, etc. in rounds 3-4.

    We haven’t had a consistent run game since Turner. I don’t even count the Super Bowl season. We need a 1,200 yard rusher. Forget that total yards from scrimmage crap get a back that can can run between the tackles.


  5. 17 minutes ago, Ovie_Lover said:

    Its misleading a little bit 

    Ertz had 916

    Godert had 600 something

    And Sanders was 509ish

    It's impressive because his receivers did suck but he had guys over 500. 

    Even Jefferys corpse was 490

    Thank you for clearing that up. I’m like hold up wat?!?!

    Ovie_Lover likes this

  6. 6 hours ago, ya_boi_j said:

    Honestly, I hope they make it happen and draft Burrows. Several here said he’s overrated so I’d love the Falcons to face him twice a year and be in the same division

    Uhhh I don’t know if he’s underrated. If Panthers get him he’ll probably beast they already got LSU’s Offensive Coordinator.


  7. 20 hours ago, ya_boi_j said:

    So if it causes a great football player to fall, how does it not mean crap? It must mean something if it causes a great player to fall

    People put too much stock into combine performance and it pushes up a great athlete’s stock while the sometimes a better football player will fall to us. I feel like the evaluators who don’t put much stock into combines will do better when it comes to the draft. 
     

    In other words, the tape don’t lie. I wish Khalil Mack would’ve ran a 4.80 40... I swear he would’ve feel right to the Falcons if he did lol.

    Osiruz likes this

  8. 2 hours ago, ya_boi_j said:

    He just murdered his stock. He better kill it at pro days. This is why I constantly remind people not to put much stock into player projections when making mocks, especially before the combine

     

    then again I might be overblowing it by saying murdered. 

    Combine doesn’t mean crap when it comes to prospects but I love it because ppl put too much stock into it and it’ll cause a great FOOTBALL PLAYER to fall due to a GREAT ATHLETE being picked.


  9. 6 hours ago, ya_boi_j said:

     Sold. 

    You’re a fan of the DE from LSU? I really don’t know about these underweight speed rushers anymore. I mean he has the length and height but we need full-time starter potential not a situational pass rusher. All we have on our squad is situational players. Drives me crazy.