Falconsin2012

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About Falconsin2012

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  1. It sounds like Ryan is the teacher and Sark the student in the last part of the quote...lol. Much better gameplan and execution this week
  2. Our best defensive player (D Jones) & top 4 defensive player (Neal) are out. I don’t see a shutout.
  3. I see what you did there...lol
  4. Interesting analysis on how we use our tools inside the redzone The Falcons offense has looked bad this season, we attempt to break down the Falcons red zone woes. Football is a game of physicality and strategy similar to chess in an attempt to score touchdowns. No part of the field is more challenging than inside of the red zone which is the area between the goal line and the opponents 20-yard line. The reason why it is so difficult is due to the limitations in space which allows defenders to play closer together, making it a challenge for the offense. Using http://www.pro-football-reference.com as a reference, I have broken down the red zone numbers. The 2017 Falcon’s offense struggled in the red zone, well by their standards. Part of the issue was a natural regression. In 2016 the Falcon’s offense scored 33.8 points per game which was 7th all time, that number regressed to a solid 22.1 points per game. Part of the issue stemmed from a lack of production which in and of itself came from a lack of an identity inside of the red zone. A lack of an identity? Absolutely! MORE FROM BLOGGING DIRTY Falcons must trade Devonta Freeman, resign Tevin Coleman Atlanta Falcons: 3 Things We Learned After Week 1 Atlanta Falcons: three moves to make after the Keanu Neal injury A look at how Dan Quinn has quietly dominated the NFC Atlanta Falcons vs Philadelphia Eagles: Final injury report When teams get inside of the red zone, each team has a preferred method of getting the ball to break the plain. Teams who have dominate offensive lines tend to run the ball straight up the middle of the defense, while teams with a light offensive line tend to want to use misdirection and more passing in order to scheme players open. In 2016 under offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan the Falcons tended to want to use their running backs as the primary option to score inside of the red zone. This was done by either running the ball or using them in space as receivers. The below spreadsheet demonstrates exactly what I mean: 2016 Atlanta Falcons Redzone Offense Passing Player Tgt Rec Ctch% Yds TD %Tgt Devonta Freeman 17 12 70.59% 74 2 17.50% Mohamed Sanu 13 9 69.23% 68 4 13.40% Tevin Coleman 12 8 66.67% 29 2 12.40% Jacob Tamme 11 7 63.64% 53 3 11.30% Justin Hardy 10 5 50.00% 22 4 10.30% Julio Jones 10 5 50.00% 30 2 10.30% Taylor Gabriel 6 6 100.00% 42 1 6.20% Austin Hooper 5 3 60.00% 14 2 5.20% Aldrick Robinson 3 2 66.67% 9 1 3.10% Joshua Perkins 2 1 50.00% 8 0 2.10% Nick Williams 2 2 100.00% 20 0 2.10% Patrick DiMarco 1 1 100.00% 1 1 1.00% D.J. Tialavea 1 1 100.00% 1 1 1.00% Levine Toilolo 1 0 0.00% 0 0 1.00% Terron Ward 1 1 100.00% 11 0 1.00% Totals 95 63 23 Rushing Player Att Yds TD %Rush Devonta Freeman 53 127 9 60.20% Tevin Coleman 22 72 6 25.00% Matt Ryan 6 16 0 6.80% Terron Ward 5 17 0 5.70% Taylor Gabriel 1 9 1 1.10% Mohamed Sanu 1 5 0 1.10% Totals 88 246 16 Notice how all-pro wide receiver Julio Jones is essentially the sixth and if you include the run, seventh option inside of the red zone. This strategy was effective because Jones dictates coverage so he opens up things for everyone else. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw touchdown passes to 11 different receivers inside of the red zone, and a huge part of that was the ability to not only run the ball but dictate coverage using Jones. In 2017 under new offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, the offensive philosophy changed which resulted in less production in the red zone. Below are the numbers for 2017: RELATED PRODUCT Calvin Ridley Atlanta Falcons Nike 2018 NFL Draft First Round Pick Game Jersey – Red Buy Now! 2017 Atlanta Falcons Redzone Offense Passing Player Tgt Rec Ctch% Yds TD %Tgt Julio Jones 19 5 26.32% 33 1 25.00% Mohamed Sanu 12 7 58.33% 40 5 15.80% Austin Hooper 9 7 77.78% 39 2 11.80% Devonta Freeman 8 5 62.50% 60 1 10.50% Justin Hardy 7 4 57.14% 23 3 9.20% Taylor Gabriel 6 2 33.33% 18 0 7.90% Tevin Coleman 4 4 100.00% 46 3 5.30% Marvin Hall 2 0 0.00% 0 0 2.60% Levine Toilolo 2 2 100.00% 11 0 2.60% Derrick Coleman 1 0 0.00% 0 0 1.30% Andre Roberts 1 0 0.00% 0 0 1.30% Ty Sambrailo 1 0 0.00% 0 0 1.30% Totals 72 36 15 Rushing Player Att Yds TD %Rush Devonta Freeman 34 70 7 48.60% Tevin Coleman 23 59 5 32.90% Matt Ryan 5 16 0 7.10% Terron Ward 5 9 0 7.10% Taylor Gabriel 2 2 0 2.90% Mohamed Sanu 1 4 0 1.40% Totals 70 160 12 The first stat that stands out is the amount of not rushing attempts but rushing touchdowns which went down from 88 and 16 respectively to 70 and 12. That means the Falcons had 18 less rushing attempts and four fewer touchdowns in the red zone from 2016 to 2017. This can be attributed to so many things, to include having fewer plays, as well as bad play at key positions on the offense such as the right guard position. In short, the team didn’t have the same level of production running the ball and that creates a snowball effect that makes throwing the ball harder inside a small space. As I mentioned above in 2016 Ryan hit 11 receivers for touchdowns inside of the red zone, in 2017 that number dropped to six. You will also notice the amount of targets to Jones almost doubled from his 10 in 2016 to 19 in 2017. Why is this a bad thing you may ask? Because targeting Jones who doesn’t have a long history of great production inside of the red zone, bogs down the offense and makes play calling more predictable because players know who’s going to get the targets. Do you see the change in philosophy now? The Falcons went from feeding all pieces to feeding a few and the one who got targeted the most turned 19 targets into only 1 touchdown inside of the red zone, that is unacceptable. Now part of the issue is offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian is learning not only how to best feature his players but he is still using Shanahan’s scheme which isn’t his own. Below are the numbers from Shanahan’s first year 2015. 2015 Atlanta Falcons Redzone Offense Passing Player Tgt Rec Ctch% Yds TD %Tgt Julio Jones 22 13 59.09% 93 5 28.60% Devonta Freeman 14 9 64.29% 69 3 18.20% Leonard Hankerson 9 6 66.67% 46 3 11.70% Jacob Tamme 8 5 62.50% 49 1 10.40% Roddy White 8 3 37.50% 18 1 10.40% Justin Hardy 6 4 66.67% 26 0 7.80% Nick Williams 3 3 100.00% 12 2 3.90% Tevin Coleman 2 0 0.00% 0 0 2.60% Patrick DiMarco 2 2 100.00% 16 2 2.60% Terron Ward 2 1 50.00% 8 0 2.60% Totals 76 46 17 Rushing Player Att Yds TD %Rush Devonta Freeman 49 116 10 62.00% Tevin Coleman 14 39 1 17.70% Terron Ward 10 24 1 12.70% Matt Ryan 5 9 0 6.30% Patrick DiMarco 1 0 0 1.30% Totals 79 188 12 Amazingly the numbers look almost identical between 2015 and 2017. Even the attempts and actual touchdowns are similar. To me, this means Shanahan had the same philosophy that is hurting Sarkisian, and that features their best player in the red zone and use that to open other things up. Again the issue here is Jones had never been very production in the red zone in recent years, that’s just not his game. Sarkisian and Ryan admitted during training camp that they were looking at every scheme Ryan had been in to help build the playbook. Outside of 2016, the Falcon’s most productive offense came in 2012. Here’s the numbers for that offense: 2012 Atlanta Falcons Redzone Offense Passing Player Tgt Rec Ctch% Yds TD %Tgt Roddy White 20 9 45.00% 79 4 21.70% Julio Jones 20 11 55.00% 108 7 21.70% Tony Gonzalez 17 12 70.59% 85 8 18.50% Jason Snelling 9 7 77.78% 20 1 9.80% Harry Douglas 8 6 75.00% 37 1 8.70% Jacquizz Rodgers 6 6 100.00% 22 1 6.50% Michael Turner 3 3 100.00% 0 0 3.30% Michael Palmer 3 3 100.00% 12 1 3.30% Lousaka Polite 2 0 0.00% 0 0 2.20% Mike Johnson 1 1 100.00% 1 1 1.10% Drew Davis 1 1 100.00% 15 1 1.10% Kevin Cone 1 0 0.00% 0 0 1.10% Totals 91 59 379 25 Rushing Player Tm Att Yds TD %Rush Michael Turner ATL 52 105 10 61.90% Jacquizz Rodgers ATL 17 36 1 20.20% Jason Snelling ATL 6 16 0 7.10% Matt Ryan ATL 5 35 1 6.00% Luke McCown ATL 2 -3 0 2.40% Harry Douglas ATL 1 -1 0 1.20% Totals 83 188 12 It is important to remember Julio was a second-year veteran and had Roddy White and Tony Gonzales to take some of the weight off of him. Those three players performed great that year as they went on to account for 25 of Ryan’s 32 passing touchdowns. NEXT: Atlanta Falcons: three moves to make after the Keanu Neal injury It is clear the Falcons lack an identity in the red zone. They want to feature their best player more but that hasn’t worked out thus far. In order for the Falcons to be successful as currently constructed, they must get back to spreading the football around. Jones will get his, but other players must also contribute and that won’t happen if plays aren’t drawn up for them. Balance is the key and Sarkisian must understand this if this offense is to take the next step forward
  5. To your point about an abundance of weapons, perhaps it’s time to rethink. Heading into 2016 we were considered an above average offensive unit. Certainly not the juggernaut most consider us now...and we have mostly the same players.
  6. Usually before the snap is even made
  7. Great point. Matt and Kyle were very much in sync that year which led to Ryan being very confident, even under duress. Does not appear to be the case now, but we will know more a month from now. Do you feel Sark’s plays take as long to develop as KS’s?
  8. Julio will have a big year regardless, but hopefully he isn’t targeted 19 times very often. Only 16 rushes (I think) and 19 Julio targets means we are one domensional. I’d prefer a balanced attack with 6-7 people catching the ball and Julio breaking their spirit with massive YAC
  9. The Warner video from the original post is interesting. Doesn’t shed light on the particular plays, though. It must be the final drive he is referencing
  10. I am not calling out PMF. He knows more football than I do… Only thing we disagree on is Sark. I was a chip Kelly or DeFilippo guy as a Shanahan replacement… But I’m curious what PMF thinks about Kurt Warner’s analysis
  11. @PeytonMannings Forehead Is Warner right or wrong?
  12. Shanahan knew this which is why he try to score from the third. Ryan needs a tight end to be successful in the red zone ala TG. He just doesn’t have a great arm for the RZ. Not sure why...it’s strong enough.
  13. I sure wish Matt trained in Cali this off-season with his throwing guru. It looks to have impacted the zip on his throws
  14. Matt’s accuracy isn’t a concern. A career 66% thrower doesn’t lose accuracy over an off-season. I am, however, concerned about how much less zip his throws had. Seemed to lose arm strength which could be an issue. Did he train with the same group in Cali this off-season? I’m sure he did...just can’t remember hearing about it