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Sven

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  1. Thanks
    Sven reacted to JD dirtybird21 in if ELITE QB available at #4, tell me how that's not the best pick - I don't think you can convince me   
    I don’t think anyone disagrees with you on if “an ELITE qb is available at 4...then take him.” 
     
    The difference is you seem to be convinced all the QB’s are elite. Others are not 
  2. Like
    Sven reacted to Xfactor in From NFLN - Ryan and Julio Aint Going Anywhere This Year   
    Old noodle arm will throw for 4500 yards and 39 TD's next year /sigh
  3. Haha
    Sven got a reaction from JohnnyFranchise in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    Imagine someone says, "You can draft Ja'Marr Chase and have an All-Pro WR for two contract cycles, but I'm warning you, it comes with a tough decision."
    "What's the decision?" you ask.
    "If you draft Ja'Marr Chase.... you have to cut... *gulp*.. Christian Blake." 
    I'd laugh at that person.
  4. Like
    Sven got a reaction from JohnnyFranchise in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    This sort of posting is totally obnoxious. You've probably "wasted" the most words on this board of any poster of all time, with 52K posts, countless mocks and only the rare bit of accuracy to show for it (not that anyone's draft predictions on here are particularly accurate). You're here pounding the table for another UGA guy like that's god's gift to posting, great. I don't see Fields being that great in the NFL, but he has the arm and the athleticism, and I wanted him to start over Fromm before he transferred; I wouldn't be upset if we took him.
    That said, to say we're essentially set at WR (in your other posts) because Gage is "good enough to be a starter" is pretty hilarious. Some of you really aren't prepared to draft BPA. Drafting Chase would create a logjam at WR for one year; thereafter we would trade Julio and have control of both Ridley (extend him) and Chase (rookie contract) for ~5 years, and the preferred one of the two for ~10 years (or both if we love both and want to pay both, I guess). Best case scenario, that's Julio and Roddy in their prime-tier, and perhaps more realistically it could be Boldin and Fitzgerald ca. 2005, which is great, but not world-beating or "set" or whatever tier of overpowered that would preclude you from drafting Chase because our WR position is too stacked with talent. We had Julio/Roddy/Douglas (who is similar to Gage)/Gonzalez at one point and I still wish we had more talent; the Bucs have Evans/Godwin/Brown/Howard/Gronkowski/Fournette. ****, with the logjam, it'd probably make it easier to re-sign Gage after next season since he'll be fighting Chase for targets.
    Drafting Chase would ensure (assuming he pans out) that we have at least one elite WR for two contract cycles (rookie contract, first extension), possibly two elite WRs if we re-sign both Ridley and Chase in ~2024-25, a decision which is mostly under our control. If we don't want to pay Calvin after his 2nd contract (presumably because Chase is too expensive), we can trade him with a year left on his contract to a team that wants an All-Pro WR, netting us a 1st or a 2nd from a team that wants to go all-in and/or re-sign Ridley with cap space we don't have. That's how you pick BPA, get value for guys before they walk for nothing, and plan for the long term future at a position. Even though WR isn't a weakness on our team, that's how you prevent WR from ever becoming a weakness on our team; it gives us the flexibility to trade Julio and/or not re-sign Ridley to a third contract (what if he holds out eventually?) without our WR room going from pretty good to catastrophic, which means we'll maintain the ability to work on other areas of the team in future drafts/free agency. 
    As our new GM says, "It's never a bad thing to add to a strength." Ensuring we have great to elite WRs into the future is not ensuring we have the same strengths and weaknesses as the last regime; if one pick at #4 defines the strengths, weaknesses, culture, whatever, of the new regime, I can't wait for the FFS1970 "FONT'D" and "state line" posts, because it won't be pretty. 
    I'll clarify, though; there are about four other scenarios I find generally acceptable, I'm not pounding on the table for Chase, I just don't like the aversion to it.
    1. Any QB the FO believes in completely is fine. If Arthur Smith thinks Fields or Wilson is the guy, he's the guy. Don't trade up, though. 
    2. Sewell + 3rd/4th rd RB + rest of the picks are defense
    3. Parsons because I think the LB blitzes with Parsons, Deion, and Foye would be insane with our speed at LB. 
    4. Surtain. If he's all he's cracked up to be, AJ and him will give our defense flexibility up front with their ability to cover.

    I really wish there was a stud DE at the top of the draft this year, because Dimitroff couldn't hit on one to save his life and I'd like to pick the best one in the draft, but any of them at #4 would be a reach.
    (Small aside because I didn't know where to put this in my post; perhaps I'm spoiled with Julio/Roddy and Julio/Calvin, but I never want to see Calvin/Gage as our #1 and #2 WR unless our TE is Kyle Pitts or something. Gage isn't good enough to be the #2 targeted guy in an offense unless your offense is subpar.)
    EDIT - Changed "Thomas" to "Howard" in my list of Bucs players.
  5. Like
    Sven got a reaction from Summerhill in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    Imagine someone says, "You can draft Ja'Marr Chase and have an All-Pro WR for two contract cycles, but I'm warning you, it comes with a tough decision."
    "What's the decision?" you ask.
    "If you draft Ja'Marr Chase.... you have to cut... *gulp*.. Christian Blake." 
    I'd laugh at that person.
  6. Haha
    Sven got a reaction from gtech1 in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    Imagine someone says, "You can draft Ja'Marr Chase and have an All-Pro WR for two contract cycles, but I'm warning you, it comes with a tough decision."
    "What's the decision?" you ask.
    "If you draft Ja'Marr Chase.... you have to cut... *gulp*.. Christian Blake." 
    I'd laugh at that person.
  7. Like
    Sven got a reaction from Mister pudding in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    Thankfully, I think he's going to the AFC if he's not going to us. If Miami doesn't trade out of the pick, I think they grab him and we're left with a decision on the #3 QB or the best non-QB that isn't Chase. If he falls to us and we don't take him, how is the Cincinnati front office going to pass up on reuniting Chase and Burrow?
  8. Haha
    Sven got a reaction from Mister pudding in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    Imagine someone says, "You can draft Ja'Marr Chase and have an All-Pro WR for two contract cycles, but I'm warning you, it comes with a tough decision."
    "What's the decision?" you ask.
    "If you draft Ja'Marr Chase.... you have to cut... *gulp*.. Christian Blake." 
    I'd laugh at that person.
  9. Haha
    Sven reacted to ramonezy in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    ****... Christian Blake would cut Christian Blake to make space for Chase... 
  10. Haha
    Sven got a reaction from ramonezy in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    Imagine someone says, "You can draft Ja'Marr Chase and have an All-Pro WR for two contract cycles, but I'm warning you, it comes with a tough decision."
    "What's the decision?" you ask.
    "If you draft Ja'Marr Chase.... you have to cut... *gulp*.. Christian Blake." 
    I'd laugh at that person.
  11. Haha
    Sven got a reaction from Run 'n' Shoot in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    Imagine someone says, "You can draft Ja'Marr Chase and have an All-Pro WR for two contract cycles, but I'm warning you, it comes with a tough decision."
    "What's the decision?" you ask.
    "If you draft Ja'Marr Chase.... you have to cut... *gulp*.. Christian Blake." 
    I'd laugh at that person.
  12. Like
    Sven reacted to ramonezy in Why not Ja'Marr Chase?   
    Far too often we tend to overvalue our players and not be realistic... If what you're saying is that we don't need a Chase-caliber WR because we already got OZ, Gage and Blake and you're comfortable with that, then I need some of what you smoke cuz my stash ain't strong enough to think that corps can take us to the promised land. 
  13. Like
    Sven got a reaction from Mr.11 in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    I agree with this; maybe he won't be a top 5 QB, but I think the offense will be miles better. I've been begging for a competent OC and/or an offensive head coach for Matt's whole career. I prefer the Sean Payton route, where your head coach calls the plays and, if he's good, the offense is stable for your QB their whole career. We at least got a good OC for two years, but when you have a good young OC, they get hired away, so we began to suck again.
    If we improve in the red zone and become average on defense, we're a wildcard. That's not undoable, and I think we can do more than that. 
  14. Like
    Sven got a reaction from FalconBlood23 in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  15. Like
    Sven got a reaction from Thiccolas Cage in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  16. Thanks
    Sven got a reaction from Ergo Proxy in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  17. Thanks
    Sven got a reaction from RetroRoq in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  18. Thanks
    Sven got a reaction from wnyfalconfan in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  19. Like
    Sven reacted to jidady in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    This is one of the best posts I've ever read here. Congratulations on an excellent demonstration of logic and high football IQ!
  20. Thanks
    Sven got a reaction from jidady in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  21. Like
    Sven got a reaction from KRUNKuno in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  22. Like
    Sven got a reaction from Skin doc in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  23. Like
    Sven got a reaction from Mr.11 in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  24. Thanks
    Sven got a reaction from athell in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
  25. Like
    Sven got a reaction from JDaveG in A TDWII Observation: A QB at #4 is only move if you’re Terry Fontenot...   
    Big Ben, Rivers, and Brees were completely beaten up and broken, all having major injuries recently or at some point in their career. Matt Ryan has never had a serious injury in his entire career. If you were genuinely trying to compare Matt Ryan vs. Brady vs. Roethlisberger you would easily see Matt Ryan is much closer to Brady in terms of health and potential longevity than Roethlisberger. This is mostly due to the fact that both Brady and Ryan don't fight their way out of sacks, they just fall over, and neither of them run. In this new era of football, unless Matt tears the rotator cuff on his throwing arm, I really wouldn't be surprised if he could play starter-level football until he's 40. To be clear, that's not to say I want to hang onto him until he's 40. 
    I'd compare Ryan's situation to Rodgers. The year Ryan won MVP and we met that Packers team in the NFC Championship game, Rodgers threw for 40 TDs and 7 INTs. The next three years, he threw for 16 & 6 (7 games), 25 & 2, and 26 & 4. He'd had a few injuries, namely the collar bone (I think), and his FO probably thought he was washed so they drafted Love. This year, after a year with LaFleur, he throws for 48 TDs and 5 INTs and the FO look like idiots. Now, I'm not saying Ryan is Rodgers, and I'm not saying Ryan is about to score 48 TDs next year or the year after, but that's not the point. The point is that Rodgers wasn't washed, and it was apparent that he wasn't washed if you just watched him throw the ball, it was just that his situation led to him doing worse and having worse stats. Ryan went from Shanahan to Sarkesian to Koetter and people want to pretend like they don't know why the offense isn't good anymore. In those same years that Aaron Rodgers threw for 25 & 2 and 26 & 4, Matt threw for 35 & 7 and 26 & 14. Matt Ryan completed the most passes in the entire league this year, threw for 4600 yards, 26 TD and 11 INT with Dirk Koetter calling the plays. 

    These are Matt Ryan's stats with Dirk as OC, by the way.

    2012: 422 / 615, 4719 yds, 68.6%, 32 TD 14 INT
    2013: 439 / 651, 4515 yds, 67.4%, 26 TD 17 INT (4-12 record)
    2014: 415 / 628, 4694 yds, 66.1%, 28 TD 14 INT

    2019: 408 / 616, 4466 yds, 66.2%, 26 TD 14 INT
    2020: 407 / 626, 4581 yds, 65.0%, 26 TD 11 INT (4-12 record)
    It's... the same year. Over and over. There's no decline (or incline, really), this is Dirk's offense. We know it's a failure. We've moved on from him. Matt Ryan no longer needs to throw the most passes in the league in one of the most predictable offenses in the league. We're back to the WCO, where he had the two best years of his career. (QBR 117.1, MVP in 2016 and QBR 108.1 under Sark in 2018). 

    Which leads me to the actual point, I suppose. "Whichever QB is there" does not look better than Matt Ryan; that's pretty laughable, actually. You don't just stumble upon and fall into throwing for 4500+ yards every year, or winning an MVP. There's absolutely no guarantee a QB, especially the third one off the board, works out as well as Matt Ryan did. Perhaps you disagree, but Fields and Wilson look underwhelming to me. Regardless, even if they pan out, Matt Ryan will be a better player than them for at least three years (while they're going through their benched year, rookie year, sophomore slump year, etc., Ryan will be a veteran throwing for 4500 yds) unless you think the player is going to be Mahomes (benched year, MVP). Neither Wilson or Fields look like Mahomes to me. 
    If you want this team to win as many games as possible over the course of the next three to four years and maybe have a Superbowl window in the 2022-24 seasons, you don't draft a QB at #4, you probably draft Sewell (maybe Chase or Pitts), defense, and a run game over the course of this draft and the next, and you give Ryan 100 less attempts per game (he threw 534 in 2016). If you want to punt the franchise down the road for a couple years or you actually think Fields/Wilson is the next big thing, draft a QB at #4. 

    Since we don't know how long Matt Ryan will last, but we aren't a QB needy team, we should draft high upside players like Jalen Hurts (Round 2: Pick 53) or Jimmy Garoppolo (Round 2: Pick 62) to be our backup and prepare to take over for Matt. That way we're preparing for the future while also investing our high draft picks in BPA studs that can help us win now and in the future. 

    I'll reiterate, though: If Fontenot and Arthur are totally sold on one of the QBs and thinks they'll be a total stud in the league, similar to reports of Arthur Smith wanting UNC to offer Russell Wilson, by all means draft the QB. 
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