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Beef

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Posts posted by Beef

  1. Oliver needs to drastically improve or we'll be drafting another CB next draft.

    65 completions on 98 targets (66%), 527 air yards and 381 yards after catch given up, and 5 TD's and 7 missed tackles on those 65 comps, overall 113 QBR allowed.

    That's bad.  Real bad.

    And Sheffield wasn't any better.

    41 completions on 55 targets (75% YIKES!), 213 air yards and 232 yards after catch given up, and 2 TD's and 5 missed tackles on those 41 comps, overall 110 QBR allowed.

    No wonder we were bottom in the league in pass coverage.

     

    ETA:  And here's Trufant for reference.  He wasn't any better either.

    25 completions on 38 targets (66%), 299 air yards and 143 yards after catch given up, and 4 TD's and 4 missed tackles on those 25 comps, overall 101 QBR.

    All terrible.

  2. Oh, and to add Todd Gurley to this...

    In 2018, Gurley was 3.0 average yards after contact for 774, with a BT rate of 9.4% and YAC rate of 61.9%.

    In 2019, Gurley was 2.5 average yards after contact for 562, with a BT rate of 14.3% and YAC rate of 65.6%.

    So looks like he had a slump in average YAC, but he still had a stellar broken tackle rate and still got YAC on the majority of times he was touched.  One of the things I noticed is they ran him inside a lot more last year than in previous years, so maybe that made a difference.  He does his best work when going outside the tackles.

  3. Here it is:

    On 1/3/2020 at 4:46 PM, Beef said:

    It wasn't all just the playcalling or the OL.  Freeman was not good in the facets that don't have anything to do with the OL blocking or the play design.

     

    Freeman was 2.0 average yards after contact for 360 yards this season, and had a Broken Tackle rate of 8.2%, and a yards after contact rate of 54.9%.

    Meaning he only broke tackles on 8.2% of tackle attempts on him, and he only got yards after contact on about 55% of the times he was touched by a defender.

    And 2.0 average yards after contact is simply awful.

     

    For some perspective, here's a few other guys in the league on those same stats:

    Barkley was 3.2 average yards after contact for 835 yards in 2018, and 3.1 for 680 this season. BT rate 11.1%. YAC rate 67.8%.

    Josh Jacobs was 3.0 average yards after contact for 717 this season. BT rate 17.4%. YAC rate 62.3%.

    Zeke was 3.0 average yards after contact for 905 in 2018, and 2.9 for 786 this season. BT rate 10.6%. YAC rate 57.9%.

    Nick Chubb was 4.3 average yards after contact for 829 in 2018, and 3.5 for 1053 this season. BT rate 13.8%. YAC rate 70.5%.

    Leonard Fournette was 2.9 average yards after contact for 756 this season. BT rate 7.9%. YAC rate 65.6%.

    Mark Ingram was 2.9 average yards after contact for 545 this season. BT rate 18.8%. YAC rate 53.5%.

    Derrick Henry was 3.6 average yards after contact for 764 in 2018, and 3.2 for 967 this season. BT rate 15.8%. YAC rate 62.8%.

     

    We have good reason to let Freeman go and try to find someone to replace him.

    Brian Hill and Ito Smith were only a bit better than Freeman, but still well below the league averages in all these stats, too. So I hope we don't settle for just trying to turn one of them into our #1.

    I just don't think Koetter is capable of scheming a good run game, but I do think a really good RB can do well in spite of Koetter.

    I'm crossing my fingers for Etienne or Dobbins in the 2nd round.

     

  4. 3 hours ago, FalconFan13 said:

    If thats honestly all we get out of him then thats even less than Freeman was giving us per game as Freeman was giving us 17 touches a game at  76 ypg  between receiving and running.   Over 16 games Freeman would have a total of 1218 yards to gurleys 1195.  Gurley would have about 3 more TD's though.    To make that total worth it i would need to see those numbers on about 13 total touches a game.  That would be around 11 runs at 4.5 ypc  and 2 catches around 10 to 11 ypc.   Those would be legit improvements per touch over Freeman if it's taking him 17 to 20 touches to get those numbers then were gonna be stuck with about the same thing we were last year from our lead back.  If he is indeed putting up 4.5 and 10  on 19 touches although i think most of those would be running as even in his best year he has never had more than 4 catches per game i say he does 3 here and 16 running.  that 70 ypg running and 30 ypg receiving  totaling 1600 yards all purpose yards on the season.   Which would put him around 8th to 10th in last years all purpose yards category which isn't to bad or to much to ask for i don't think.  All the top 10 RB's had around a 4.5 to a 5.0 ypc as well so i put him at the lower end of that.   Which actually lines up quite well with his money as well as he is the 9th highest paid RB in 2020 at 6 mil from us so giving us 9th best RB play at 1600 all purpose yards would be right on point as far as value.

    I did an analysis of advanced stats on our RB's, and a few other RB's in the league, some months back.  I'll see if I can find it and show why Freeman was absolute trash last year and why he got cut.  If I remember correctly, he had the lowest yards after contact of any RB in the league, or close to it, plus a couple other things that were ugly.

  5. 2 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

    You've taken data from one place and tried to paint a picture for the entire country from it. There's nothing 'odd' about questioning that.

    This isn't NYC.

    It's the entire state of New York, which has nearly 19.5 million people in it, is the 4th most populated state in the country, and was the hardest hit state in the country by CV-19.

    And you somehow don't think it's relevant?

    Well that's pretty obtuse and silly.

  6. Just now, gazoo said:

    Indeed. I’m being very careful about how I present my argument and will not engage anyone who runs off the rails on something I say

    Yep.  I'm just trying to give people hope that there will be a football season, and supporting why I think that with real data.

    I don't understand why anyone would shoot that down without even looking at that data and making their own conclusions.

    Do they really not want a football season?

  7. 5 minutes ago, Geneaut said:

    Y'all really need to quit offering non-substantiated theories on Covid19. 

    I've merely supplied real substantiated factual data, and then gave analysis and deductive conclusions based on that data.

    It shouldn't bother anyone that it contradicts the "official" narratives on Covid19.  In fact, I'd become suspect of people's motivations for choosing to ignore this data and turn defensive of the bureaucratic narrative.

    I mean, if it turns out that this illness was here much earlier than thought, then that means there is almost assuredly widespread herd immunity already in place, and therefore much greater likelihood of us having a sports/football season.

    Which should be the hope of everyone here.

    Ignoring relevant data and arguing against that seems odd.

  8. 1 minute ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

    Unless we are offering conspiracy theories, novel coronavirus has traced the genesis of the strand to December, 2019.

    Yes, to some lab in Wuhan, China.  Patient zero in December, 2019.  We all know that's the "official" report from "honest government officials and the so honest WHO".

     

    But again, I just supplied real data that suggests New York had the worst flu season in 100 years, and that flu season seemingly came to a screeching halt the instant COVID test kits rolled out.

    I mean if you want to ignore the very strange data and just trust bureaucrats, I guess that's your prerogative.

     

  9. 14 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

    Is this simply an aggregate of all coronavirus strains?  MERS, SARS etc?

    No, this is flu cases in New York State per their health department.  Link

    Go back one page and read my analysis of what you're looking at.

    Just be open-minded and apply some quite simple logical deduction.

    Understand that 2017-18 was supposedly the worst flu season in 50 years, and this year we blew it away by +34% margin.

    Which is completely unreasonable.  This means that we just had THE WORST flu season since the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic.

    From October 1 to Feb. 28th, the state of New York had 157,000 reported flu cases.  2017-18 was 117,000 during that period.  The normal flu season in NYS is around 70,000-85,000.

    So that's a +34% increase over the worst flu season in 50 years, and a +85% increase over the typical flu season.

    It just seems absurdly improbable that we SUPPOSEDLY just had the worst flu season since the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918, and then that flu season came to a screeching halt the instant CV-19 test kits were rolled out at the beginning of March.

    Don't ya think?

  10. 3 minutes ago, FalconsIn2012 said:

    This isn’t the media, it’s the Director of the CDC:

    ”There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” CDC Director Robert Redfield said in an interview with The Washington Post. “And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean.”

    “We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said.

    Having two simultaneous respiratory outbreaks would put unimaginable strain on the health-care system, he said.
     

     

    Again, we already had both at the same time.  There's no other explanation for this:

     

    SNrySRS.jpg

  11. 7 minutes ago, athell said:

    This is good **** Beef

    Yeah I was kind of floored when I looked into flu numbers and saw that year over year comparison chart for New York.

    Also, I'm 1000% sure my wife had CV-19 from late November to late January.  She's a nurse at Kennestone Hospital, and her, and about two-dozen other nurses, PA's, and doctors she works with, coughed for nearly 10 straight weeks during that period.

    Like violently coughing, to the point it was making her puke and dry-heave constantly.  All day, every day for ~10 weeks.

    I got it for about a week and my kids got it for about 2 weeks around Christmas.  But my wife has nasty asthma, so it hit her harder.

    We all thought it was the flu.  Minor random fevers for a day or two, but nothing serious.  Just a bad cough for a week or so.  But my wife's cough was insane.  She tried everything to fight it.  Humidifier, Abreo inhaler (this chalky white crap, she still takes this now, trying to ween off it though), steroids, antibiotics, multiple different inhalers, nothing worked.  Finally, after about 9 weeks, it just slowed down and eventually went away.

    But I'm certain she has damaged her lungs and larynx.  Her voice is noticeably scratchy still and she has to constantly run a humidifier at night or she wakes up with her throat dry and burning.

    We had no idea what she had until suddenly CV-19 became a thing.  It all made sense after that, except for the fact they were trying to say it was new in January.

     

    This thing was definitely here before January, and I suspect tens of millions of people had it and recovered from it already.  And that data I found from NYS regarding flu tracking solidified it for me.

  12. Well, considering most of this country probably already has herd immunity and antibodies, since what we had in March was likely already the second wave of this virus, I think we'll figure out that re-opening things in phases, and just being smart about doing it slower in bigger cities like NYC, is going to workout fine.

     

    Here is the flu tracker for NY State from October through first couple weeks of March.  NYS Heath Dept. official Flu Tracker

    SNrySRS.jpg

     

    The 2017-18 flu season was credited as the worst flu season in 50 years, but supposedly 2019-20 just blew it away by a +34% margin, making this flu season the worst since the 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic.

    Think about that and look at those numbers.

    Weeks 40-46, there were nearly double the normal flu cases.  Weeks 47-2 there were nearly triple the normal amount of flu cases.  Weeks 3-6 it's back to double with a slow curtailing off.

    And then suddenly, almost the instant that CV-19 test kits get rolled out at the beginning of March, the number of flu cases plummets to around 5% of their normal weekly amount... in supposedly the worst flu season since 1918.

     

    Conclusion?

    CV-19 was here already as far back as October 2019, and people were going to the hospital with both the flu AND CV-19.  But they weren't getting tested for CV-19 because it wasn't a thing back then.

    The CDC estimates that 60+ million people a year get the flu, but the VAST majority of them are asymptomatic and don't get sick.  Most of us could go to the hospital right now and very likely test positive for one or more flu strains currently in our body.  But we have antibodies to them so they don't make us sick.

    But, droves of people, WAY above the norm, were going to the hospital between November and February and testing positive for the flu.  More so than any time in the last 100 years.

    Again, think about that.

    In the year where we end up with a new virus pandemic, we also have the worst flu season in 100 years?  And then almost the instant we begin testing for that new virus, the worst flu season in 100 years nearly vanishes?

    How is that reasonable?

     

    Is this not a huge indicator that people who would normally have been asymptomatic with the flu were going to the hospital with symptomatic CV-19, but being diagnosed with the flu because they weren't aware of or testing for CV-19?

     

     

    So, IF this is actually true, and CV-19 already hit this country hard, and when we thought we were having a bad flu season we were really just having both a mild flu season and the introduction of CV-19 at the same time, then this would mean what happened in March was already the "second wave" of CV-19, and it's quite possible much of the country already has herd immunity and antibodies.

    And if that turns out to be true, then this means re-opening things back up, especially in slow and coordinated phases, might result in a much smaller "spike" than is expected.

    And if that's the case, then it's very likely we would have a football season.

    I'm hoping this is the case.

  13. 1 hour ago, jetpac said:

    I’m not trying to hate on the pick, I hate the pick. Just like I hated the Oliver pick two years ago and the Collins pick before that, getting the theme here? These guys aren’t playmakers, they just fit the mold of taller and fast CBs. Terrell is a project, you don’t go project in the first round. Can’t wait to see y’all’s reactions in here when you realize what most of us are telling you. 

    A project??  WTF??

    The kid has arguably the best overall technique of any CB in the draft. Even Deion Sanders acknowledges this.  Silky-smooth feet and hips, turns his head, superb mirror speed and closing speed, body control, size, exceptional length, and a great fearless tackler.

    The #2 overall college defense and defensive coordinator put this kid on an island against every #1 receiver of every team they faced, and in 426 coverage snaps in 15 games, he only gave up 23 receptions and 3 TD’s, 2 of which were in one game against J’Marr Chase.

    And you think this guy is a “project”??

    LOL, dude you are really bad at this and should stop posting.

  14. Actually, Marlon covers all of this at his Senior Bowl presser.

    They asked him what he played at during the season and he said 295.  He weighed in at 303 for the combine because he wanted to get over 300, because so many teams are talking about playing him mostly inside at the 3T.  He said his normal game weight was about "8 lbs lighter", though.

    He says he would like to get to around 290 and stick there so he can move inside and out, but he'll play at whatever the team wants him at.

    He even said he'd most like to play the 4iT if he had his choice, which is precisely what he'd play for us on passing downs.

     

     

  15. There's no way Davidson played at 275.  He was every bit of 295+.

    The dude is a freak athlete at 300 and should stick around there, give/take 5-10 lbs either way, and he'll still be a legit beast.

    He's going to line up and go against OG's primarily in our scheme either way.   On run downs, he'll be a DE facing a Guard and covering a B and C gap from a 5 or 6 technique.  On passing downs, he'll be a DT opposite Grady, across from a Guard, and trying to penetrate a B or A gap probably from a 4i technique.  But he's so quick, I also suspect he'll have stunt packages designed specifically for him on 3rd and longs.

    He's going to be a force.  It's astounding Brown got all the hype when Davidson is probably just as good, but might also have more drive/desire and a bigger motor.

  16. We only have 3 picks left, right?

    I hope we don’t have to move up for an OLB, which is surely our most serious need at this moment.

    We kinda have to go LB and S today, don’t you all think?  Or are we saying we’re good with Neal, Rico, and Kazee?

    Our TE room is barren, too.

    And I really hope Gurley can stay healthy.  As much as I’d love getting McFarland, we don’t really have any luxury 4th round picks to get him.

    And what about edge?  Takk, Fowler, and Larkin are it??

    Yikes.

  17. 56 minutes ago, etherdome said:

    Man, you ain't kidd'n!

    I love the pick, but I have one question.  Is he a DE or DT?  From the highlights I saw, he played DE......and did a great job.  

    Is he a better fit in the interior or as a DE?  At DT, he will be required to stay low and attack a shoulder, while lookin for the play.  At DE, he gets a better view of things.  I like the idea of a guy like this seeing the action.  He is a go-getter!     

    People need to remember we run a 4-3 Under on run downs and a typical 4-2-5 on pass downs.

    In the Under, our lineup is something like 6/7/8t—1/2t—4/5t—7/8/9t with Grady or Davison essentially playing NT.  Marlon would very likely play the 5t in this formation with maybe Bailey or Comminsky outside Grady and Takk or Fowler on the edge.

    However, there’s a chance Marlon plays outside the NT and we stack Grady and Davison/Senat inside, because he’s flexible enough to do that too.

    On pass downs, we’re typically 7/8/9t—3/4it—3/4it—7/8/9t, and I very much suspect Marlon will be inside at one of the 4it positions next to Grady, with Takk and Fowler on the edges.

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