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Beef

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Posts posted by Beef

  1. 34 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

    Eventually they won’t have a choice if he’s convinced he wants out. But for now, I agree. As much as I can dream about him being here, the Pels aren’t trading him to anybody. 

    I guess I have to go back to buying lotto tickets, and wishing that we snag one of those sleeper guys in the back of r1 who turns out to be a superstar.😄

    The current league MVP was the 40th overall pick 5 years ago.  Clearly it’s possible.

  2. 10 minutes ago, fuego said:

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    biggrin.gif.edfe95fb4daa4925df12f64e4aac02c2.gif

    Sorry, man.  I know you are all just spitballin and dreamcasting, but there are some hard and obvious realities we’re facing soon.

    The good news is they aren’t bad at all.  Literally this roster as is has incredible potential to be a multiple championship team.

    Aside from Lou and Gallo, none of our regulars have come close to hitting their ceiling and look at what we’ve done already.

    Trae is only freaking 22 years old!  22!!

    He!!, we all watched Bogi even improve as the season went on. That dude can go 6/10 from 3 pt on any average night, and he might even improve that.

    Now just imagine Hunter and Reddish both turning into 20-25 a night wings and 1st/2nd team All NBA Defenders. And that’s not hyperbole. They are both 100% capable, AND, probable of this.

    Imagine all at their ceiling… Trae at 1, Reddish at 2, Hunter at 3, Collins at 4, Capela at 5, with Bogi, Huerter, Gallo, and OO coming off the bench?  All in their prime at the top of their potential.

    Do we really even need to break this up just to bring in a max superstar?

  3. Are we even going to have money to sign anyone of significance at this point?

    Collins is going to want a near max contract to stay here immediately after these playoffs.

    Then, won’t it be time to give Trae one after 2022 season?

    And then after that season don’t we have to pay Hunter and Reddish? And also Bogi is done then, too, I think.

    Huerter has to fit in there somewhere too, no?  Do 6’7 SG’s with handles grow on trees, too?  Not really. And all he’s done is greatly improve his defense and then drop 18 points in a few post-season games. Dude is good and only getting better.

    Collins hasn’t been putting up his usual 20/10 this post-season, but that’s pretty much what he is all regular season, which is great. And this post-season he’s hit some incredibly big 3’s. Him developing a solid 3 is only going to improve, too. 6’10 bigs who average 20/10 and drop regular 3’s on top of a great rim game and above average defense don’t grow on trees.

    In other words, if there’s nobody on the FA market that can replace all he brings, we’re very likely going to max him out.  And then maxing Trae, too?  And then saving for probably a big Hunter deal?  And quite possibly also a Reddish deal? Both right after 2023, right? Which is also when Gallo’s contract is up.

    You all might want to face the likelihood that what’s on our roster right now is all we’re going to see for the next 3-4 years.

    The good news is, not a single one of these guys has hit, or even come close to their ceiling.  All of them, even Collins and Huerter, will improve in virtually every aspect of the game.

    And incredibly, OO looks like a Capela 2.0.  With maybe even better offense when it’s all done.

    Honestly, I think the only… ONLY… possible change is swapping out Collins for someone like Giannis. But aside from that, I don’t see us doing anything that potentially jacks up the chemistry of this team.  That’s not who Travis Schlenk is.  He built Golden State through the draft.  He isn’t about buying superstars.

    I just suggest you all temper expectations on all that.  If what we have now can get and stay healthy, it’s going to be vying for the ECF and league championship for the next 3-4 years as is.

  4. 57 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

    I mentioned this in the game thread. We actually are facing our toughest matchup problem in this series. Philly is long at every spot, and it has hurt our ability to run our offense the way we like. 

    Trae has had it really bad with his height vs a guy like Simmons. He’s gotten his, but it has been a struggle, and his shooting percentage has taken a hit.

    With BKN, we definitely have to make shots all night, every night, but they have nobody who’ll stop us from running our offense the way we want. 

    I want to play the Bucks. We have advantages against them shooting, and they aren’t going to bother us at all physically. But, I think we have a solid chance against either one. 

    Trae is facing a first team all-nba defender who is 6’11 for most of the game, and when Simmons isnt in, he’s facing a third team all-nba defender in Thybule.

    And yet, he just put up 39 points.

    Nobody left after the Sixers is a threat to contain him.

    We already played the best and second best defenses in all the NBA and proven we can still win.

    I’d rather not play an offensive juggernaut. We can beat defense. What we don’t know yet is if we can outscore an unstoppable offense.

    I’d rather play the Bucks I think.

  5. 25 minutes ago, thanat0s said:

    But none of that has anything to do with general revenue as it relates to ratings for these finals, which was your original post. That money is already in the bank, no matter who is playing in the games. 
    The ratings simply don’t matter to the bottom line at this point.
     

    It’s like being paid to act in a movie, and it bombing at the box office later. The actor has already been paid. The worst that can happen is a bruised ego.

    That’s just not true.

    Again, when ratings are down, less advertisers are advertising, as well as paying less for those that do advertise. And, less syndicates are paying for games to be televised on their networks.

    ESPN/TNT/Disney aren’t universal tv sources. The games aren’t automatically televised everywhere around the world or even around the country, and many cable/satellite companies don’t televise games that don’t meet ratings standards, and many providers and networks don’t syndicate games if they aren’t getting enough advertising dollars to make it worth it, or they simply pay less depending on the ratings.

    You're being myopic in thinking that only ESPN/TNT/Disney (and their set contract with the league) are the only source of tv revenue.

    Think about it, those networks only account for about $3B/year of a league that makes around $5B/year in tv revenue (and around $9B/year in total revenue).

    Most big time movie actors don’t just get paid a set figure. They get a guaranteed amount AND a percentage of the box-office sales after a certain amount.

    The NBA works similarly.

  6. 1 hour ago, thanat0s said:

    Ya know, I’ve heard this a lot over my many years, but it really doesn’t add up. The tv revenue for the Finals is already in the bank, and I’m almost positive the network has already sold all of their national ad time. 
     

    It’s not like the ECFs end, and the sales department runs out and sells all the space in a few days. That takes a lot of planning, especially for the ad buyers. They have to get any new commercials filmed and ready to go. 
     

    Ratings will be what they are, but that won’t impact the bottom line.

    Dude it’s way more complicated than that.

    First, understand that NBA “Team” revenue (also called BRI - basketball related income) comes from many more sources than just national tv advertising contracts. On top of this, each team makes very different amounts of revenue based on all their assorted income sources, including tv ads.

    ESPN/Time Warner paid the league $24B for a 9-year deal from 2019-2028. But in that breakdown, the Knicks get significantly more money than the Hawks, for instance.  And when the playoffs come, each team gets “playoff” money from that deal based on the size of their market. The Knicks also make around $4m per game from just arena ticket sales/attendance while the Hawks make around $1.4m a game.  Local advertisers, stadium naming rights, shoe deals, jersey patch deals, arena specific advertising, international tv network advertising, etc. etc… all go to each team on an individual basis.

    And yes, some of these things do happen on a game by game, or playoff series by playoff series, basis. That‘s how “Syndication” works, especially with foreign countries and their tv networks (which usually pay to televise teams their foreign nationals play on).

    And the big market teams make significantly more than the small market teams. And a metric ton of additional revenue comes to teams on a per-game basis as a result.  So if you’re in the playoffs it equates to more money, of course.

    Now all that explained, you need to then understand when anyone mentions “The League” (ie, the official NBA), what they’re really indirectly referring to, with regards to revenue, is “profit sharing”.

    The League is nothing more than 30 owners all together running a conglomerate business.  And for the most profitable team to ultimately survive, they have to subsidize the least profitable team.

    This is done by profit sharing.  All 30 teams must compile ALL their revenue (from EVERY source), and then each team must pay the same percentage of that revenue to a league pool. Then that league pool is divided equally between all 30 teams.

    As a result, the big market teams pay in more than they get returned and the smaller teams receive more than they pay in.

    Needless to say, just using simple logic and math, when big market teams are not playing games, that league pool is smaller than when small teams are playing games.

  7. 1 hour ago, tl;dr said:

    Agreed. I’m not even sure calling him a killer is enough. The dude is an assassin. He isn’t afraid of any moment. It’s honestly awesome. We are becoming a disruptor in the East. It was supposed to be the Nets or Sixers. Maybe the Bucks. Instead we are jumping in and messing up the balance of power. 

    You LOVE to see it. 

    You all know darn well the league office is freaking out and praying there’s not going to be a Hawks-Suns championship series.

    They are already losing tens of millions with no Lakers/Golden State/Heat/Celtics/Knicks/Mavs currently playing, on top of it being a shortened season, and a bunch of stars being injured.

    If we win this series and play the Nets in the ECF, we think the officiating has been bad… it’ll be over-the-top egregiously biased. And I don’t even think they’ll care how obvious it’ll be because of how desperate they are not to have a probable 50%+ drop in viewer ratings.

  8. 3 minutes ago, Ezekiel 25:17 said:

    One thing that could be interesting the rest of the way and play a MAJOR factor is has the league accepted that the Hawks are a “popular” team and start officiating them that way. 

    Meaning, what happens if they start giving the Hawks calls like they do the better teams making this series even.

    Trae has the personality the league CAN use and you know how leagues take care of their cash cows.

    When we start seeing crap like this get called properly, then we know it’s finally sunk into their heads.  Until then, we can only assume they see us as a hinderance/nuisance.

    No flagrant call here. Not even foul shots.

     

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