Psychic Gibbon

Pure Football
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Posts posted by Psychic Gibbon


  1. 9 minutes ago, The Great American said:

    Apparently, Trump thinks he is doing a good job!

     
    • Created almost 4 million jobs created since election.
    • More Americans are now employed than ever recorded before in our history.
    • We have created more than 400,000 manufacturing jobs since my election.
    • Manufacturing jobs growing at the fastest rate in more than THREE DECADES.
    • Economic growth last quarter hit 4.2 percent.
    • New unemployment claims recently hit a 49-year low.
    • Median household income has hit highest level ever recorded.
    • African-American unemployment has recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
    • Hispanic-American unemployment is at the lowest rate ever recorded.
    • Asian-American unemployment recently achieved the lowest rate ever recorded.
    • Women’s unemployment recently reached the lowest rate in 65 years.
    • Youth unemployment has recently hit the lowest rate in nearly half a century.
    • Lowest unemployment rate ever recorded for Americans without a high school diploma.
    • Under my Administration, veterans’ unemployment recently reached its lowest rate in nearly 20 years.
    • Almost 3.9 million Americans have been lifted off food stamps since the election.
    • The Pledge to America’s Workers has resulted in employers committing to train more than 4 million Americans. We are committed to VOCATIONAL education.
    • 95 percent of U.S. manufacturers are optimistic about the future—the highest ever.
    • Retail sales surged last month, up another 6 percent over last year.
    • Signed the biggest package of tax cuts and reforms in history. After tax cuts, over $300 billion poured back in to the U.S. in the first quarter alone.
    • As a result of our tax bill, small businesses will have the lowest top marginal tax rate in more than 80 years.
    • Helped win U.S. bid for the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles.
    • Helped win U.S.-Mexico-Canada’s united bid for 2026 World Cup.
    • Opened ANWR and approved Keystone XL and Dakota Access Pipelines.
    • Record number of regulations eliminated.
    • Enacted regulatory relief for community banks and credit unions.
    • Obamacare individual mandate penalty GONE.
    • My Administration is providing more affordable healthcare options for Americans through association health plans and short-term duration plans.
    • Last month, the FDA approved more affordable generic drugs than ever before in history. And thanks to our efforts, many drug companies are freezing or reversing planned price increases.
    • We reformed the Medicare program to stop hospitals from overcharging low-income seniors on their drugs—saving seniors hundreds of millions of dollars this year alone.
    • Signed Right-To-Try legislation.
    • Secured $6 billion in NEW funding to fight the opioid epidemic.
    • We have reduced high-dose opioid prescriptions by 16 percent during my first year in office.
    • Signed VA Choice Act and VA Accountability Act, expanded VA telehealth services, walk-in-clinics, and same-day urgent primary and mental health care.
    • Increased our coal exports by 60 percent; U.S. oil production recently reached all-time high.
    • United States is a net natural gas exporter for the first time since 1957.
    • Withdrew the United States from the job-killing Paris Climate Accord.
    • Cancelled the illegal, anti-coal, so-called Clean Power Plan.
    • Secured record $700 billion in military funding; $716 billion next year.
    • NATO allies are spending $69 billion more on defense since 2016.
    • Process has begun to make the Space Force the 6th branch of the Armed Forces.
    • Confirmed more circuit court judges than any other new administration.
    • Confirmed Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch and nominated Judge Brett Kavanaugh.
    • Withdrew from the horrible, one-sided Iran Deal.
    • Moved U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem.
    • Protecting Americans from terrorists with the Travel Ban, upheld by Supreme Court.
    • Issued Executive Order to keep open Guantanamo Bay.
    • Concluded a historic U.S.-Mexico Trade Deal to replace NAFTA. And negotiations with Canada are underway as we speak.
    • Reached a breakthrough agreement with the E.U. to increase U.S. exports.
    • Imposed tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum to protect our national security.
    • Imposed tariffs on China in response to China’s forced technology transfer, intellectual property theft, and their chronically abusive trade practices.
    • Net exports are on track to increase by $59 billion this year.
    • Improved vetting and screening for refugees, and switched focus to overseas resettlement.
    • We have begun BUILDING THE WALL. Republicans want STRONG BORDERS and NO CRIME. Democrats want OPEN BORDERS which equals MASSIVE CRIME.

    Wow. Most of this sucks ***.

    Sn4tteRBoxXeR likes this

  2. 24 minutes ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

    Incorrect on both points. I'm simply stating the factual record as a segue into my comment on the 2020 race. If you felt personally attacked, please accept my apology.

     

    https://boards.atlantafalcons.com/topic/4070622-not-the-new-donald-trump-presidency-thread/?do=findComment&comment=11475315

     

    I thought that was one of the times @Leon Troutsky and I were arguing about impeachment/me ****ting on Pelosi for not wanting to. Gave me a chuckle that it was because you thought they should only start impeachment deep into the nomination process lol


  3. 20 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

    They were running against Republicans during a time of economic boom.  That’s why they lost.  The economy is also why McGovern lost.

    That is a big reason as to why they lost. It doesn't, however, explain the blowouts. We've both gone over McGovern enough to explain his blowout loss, but Mondale and Dukakis were particularly weak candidates going against very strong ones, one of which ushered in a realignment of the party systems.


  4. 10 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

    Yeah, I was surprised that Mondale and Dukakis scores weren’t more extreme, but that’s what the newest measures show so I accept that.

    I have to go to work so I’ll try to respond to the rest later IF there’s not more important news coming out.  I would also note that the study I cited by Cohen and colleagues also showed a small and not very significant effect of ideology on vote share.  The main point is that other things — especially the economy — influence elections, not ideology.  Which fits with what most political science studies have shown over the years.

    It's because those two weren't left-wing, let alone extremists, and that line of thinking needs to die. They were bad candidates with negative charisma. Simple as that.

    Material conditions definitely plays the most significant role in elections. That's why I think having a candidate like Sanders or Warren would give the Dems their best shot: They do the best job of recognizing and addressing those needs. The rest of the field, imo, falls woefully short there.


  5. 3 minutes ago, Sn4tteRBoxXeR said:

    On the off chance that @Psychic Gibbon is incorrect and Trump DOES get impeached by the House, and Trump subsequently resigns or is removed, Dem's need to look at the field with the POSSIBILITY that they will not be running against Trump. Framing, matchups, etc. It's something to be PREPARED for, not something that's an inevitability.

    When have I said that he won't get impeached by the House?


  6. 17 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

    I’ve never said that either candidate lost because of their ideology.  I’ve only said that ideological extremity makes it more difficult to win, and the evidence bears that out although newer evidence suggests the effect is smaller than previous studies showed.

    As for the bolded part, that’s not even remotely true.  McGovern’s positions were not at all with his own party’s base supporters, let alone the general public.  This is from a recent study...

    10-1177-0002716216660571-fig1.gif

    The authors also create a measure of these positions relative to the party base and to the general public.  They test around five different ways of measuring candidate ideology and relative ideology, and all of them produce the same results.  (Note that in this measure McGovern is slightly more extreme than Goldwater.)  For the relative measure, they also found that Goldwater and McGovern were the two most extreme candidates, but they also found that Reagan in 80 was far more extreme than the Republican base.  

    So yet again, even the most recent studies confirm what the data I presented before showed — McGovern was ideologically extreme, both in absolute terms and relative to their party’s bases.  

    And I’ve already spent too much time rehashing this whole thing.  As I said, there are far more important things going on than this.

    giphy.gif

    The bold was referring to Mondale and Dukakis, not McGovern. I haven't denied that McGovern was left-wing. My contention with the original argument regarding him was that he didn't lose because he was left-wing but because his actions prior to winning the nomination alienated unions, who made up the voting base and mobilization network of the Dem Party at the time, and pissed them off enough to turn on him. It'd be like if a contemporary Dem nominee, left, center, whatever, spent a good chunk of their career undercutting non-white communities and then expected them to turn out to vote for them. That is a recipe for disaster, one which befell McGovern.

    As for the graph: If it's judging the perceived extremism of the candidates based on their parties and electorates, and not overall, then that makes way more sense than basically a direct comparison between McGovern and Goldwater, which is how it originally came across. Also lines up with my argument since his record and positions in some very key areas were, indeed, way off base with the Dem electorate.


  7. 2 minutes ago, mdrake34 said:

     

    Pretty sure what caused it to fall apart was because of the speculation went to ridiculous levels and that it would be the magic bullet that would take him down... then it didn't turn out to be the case.

    Now I'm seeing the ridiculous ******** coming from the GOP to defend this stuff.


  8. 21 minutes ago, Serge said:

    The crazy thing to me is people thinking any Democrat has a good chance against Trump despite this obvious split in the base, essentially because the people who respond to political polls have a basic opinion about every candidate.

    One of the reasons Dems were spiking the football in 2016 was because they thought the GOP was hopelessly divided after their primary.

    I don't know where the idea where primaries need to be smooth sailing or else you're doomed came from.


  9. 11 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

    The posts are almost certainly there but when a thread gets locked for some reason you can’t search it on the boards.  

    The data measures Goldwater’s policy positions.  Other data measures citizens’ perceptions about his policy positions.  Both of them show that he was ideologically extreme.  

    As I said, with so many more important things going on right now, it’s useless to rehash this whole thing just because you want to try to prop up a losing candidate.  

    Not really. It's common propaganda among centrists to blame those three blowouts on those candidates being too left-wing even though the platforms of two of them are aligned with the centrist consensus and there were much more significant reasons for McGovern's loss than his platform, namely the alienation between him and the unions that the Dems relied extremely heavily on for voter mobilization. It's a bad, lazy argument to fearmonger the base.

    As for McGovern/Goldwater thing specifically, it's simply difficult to take data points at face value seriously when they say that someone was more of an extremist than someone who wanted to repeal the CRA, destroy the New Deal, wanted to nuke Vietnam, and so on. It's more difficult to take it seriously when I'm compared to climate change deniers for wanting an explanation or examples as to why that'd be the case.


  10. 7 minutes ago, Billy Ocean said:

    I remember the time Trout cited data showing that Trump was the most moderate candidate and the time Trout cited data showing that the Democrats have been moving way to the left over the past 40 years, but I must've missed the McGovern data.

    I assume the thread was deleted since I can't find any of it on searches.

    IIRC, HM ranted about how McGovern, Mondale, and Dukakis were all left-wing extremists and evidence of why we should never nominate left-wing candidates. I pointed out that Mondale was more aligned with the current Democratic platform (eg. austerity, identity politics) than the left, Dukakis was objectively not the left-wing candidate of that cycle, and that McGovern lost due to his shenanigans while heading the party that greatly weakened the clout of unions, which obviously pissed them off, at the same time Nixon was actively courting them with his silent majority stuff.

    Trout then posted some graph that showed that McGovern was more of an extremist than Goldwater. That made no sense to me, given their platforms, so I asked for an explanation of what exactly made McGovern more extreme than Goldwater. Months later the only answer I get is:

    6 minutes ago, Leon Troutsky said:

    I’m not saying “just accept it”.  I’m saying that I’ve shown the data and you keep coming up with these silly reasons to reject the conclusions from scientific studies.  It reminds me of the climate change deniers, if I’m being honest.

    Such good faith.

    Billy Ocean likes this

  11. Just now, Leon Troutsky said:

    I’m not interested in rehashing this stupid “debate” because the evidence is clear.  In that period of time, McGovern was too far left for the public.  Try to spin and deflect all you like, but the evidence is clear on that.

    There’s a lot more important stuff happening right now, especially regarding the Ukraine scandal.  This desperate attempt to revise history and promote Bernie by s***ing on everyone else has grown tired.  Time to move on to actually important things.

    If the data shows that someone is more of an extremist than Goldwater, the guy who wanted to nuke Vietnam and set into motion the far-right shift of the present GOP, then I'd like to know how exactly that's the case. Constantly saying, "Just accept it," is a **** argument, especially given how ridiculous it is and how other similar arguments about how Mondale and Dukakis were too left wing have fallen apart when we've actually dissected their platforms.


  12. Just now, Leon Troutsky said:

    I’ve already the McGovern stuff several times, including citing several data sources.  Go back and read those posts if you want to rehash the debate.

    Your data showed that McGovern was more of an extremist than someone who wanted to nuke a country.

    All I've wanted are policy positions of McGovern's that were too extreme for electorate to swallow. You have never answered that.


  13. 1 minute ago, Leon Troutsky said:

    They don’t have a point.  Trump’s the product of a lot of things.  Centrists are not one of them.

    I don't know how you can look at the past four or so decades of bipartisan consensus regarding things like welfare "reform," privatization of social services, capital friendly monetary policy, draconian law and order, etc. and come away thinking that the center is blameless.

    Billy Ocean and Gritzblitz 2.0 like this