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Leon Troutsky

Pure Football
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Everything posted by Leon Troutsky

  1. Oh, I rarely use it and I’ve been watching The Social Dilemma and The Facebook Dilemma (PBS Frontline from 2018). It’s beyond poison. I’m coming to the belief that it’s legitimately dangerous for society. It was a fluke that I happened to scroll down more than a few posts this time.
  2. Okay, the Biden campaign needs to stop with the histrionic Facebook ads. I’m scrolling down the feed and see their ad saying their internal campaign polls have it at a 1-point race each in MI, WI, and PA and asking for a $25 donation. I know it’s BS. and those polls aren’t real. But still. Now I have to use that $25 for some blood pressure medication instead of a donation.
  3. One thing to watch regarding the election is the GDP report that gets released on Thursday morning. Most forecasts have GDP growth in 3rd quarter in the 25-35% range, which is hugely positive news. So unless Trump steps on his message (very possible), he could have several days of very positive economic news at the end of the campaign. It’s likely that just under half of all voters will have already voted by then, and its impact probably won’t be as effective at convincing undecided voters, but it could make a small difference in the race if Trump and his campaign can just focus on that goo
  4. Because of course it’s Florida... https://www.chron.com/news/article/A-Florida-man-stole-a-bulldozer-knocked-down-a-15674800.php
  5. Two separate things here — the overall trend and the implication of a tight race in these states. To the first, the race has tightened in the polls nationally, though not as much as I thought it would. But “tightening” doesn’t mean “tight” — Biden still has a national lead of around 9.5%. That’s down from about 10.5% a few weeks ago, not enough to change the race overall. You’re right that the implication of tight races in GA and TX mean Biden has much safer leads in other states, and the state polling shows that to be true. His lead in PA is about 6% and it’s 7-9% in WI and MI, if my
  6. No, if you look at the polling errors over the past 40-50 years, they tend to be off in one direction about half the time and off in the other direction the other half. It’s more legitimate to criticize Silver on the probability that the race tightens vs. widens than it is on polling errors.
  7. On the race tightening, that’s just because my forecasting model predicts an 8% Biden lead and he’s above that in the polls, so I expect the race to tighten. If Biden had a 5% lead in the polls, I’d expect the race to widen some. Nate Silver calling that a 50/50 chance is a bit deceptive, though. I think you’re right about that. His model expects the race to tighten, also, though for different reasons. So he puts the probability of the race tightening as higher than it widening. So I think you’re right about that one.
  8. They were off in Trump’s direction. The year before, they were off in Obama’s direction. Polling errors tend to bounce around randomly, meaning there’s almost exactly a 50/50 chance they will be off in one direction or the other.
  9. Both of those are actually around 50/50 chances, especially polling error. Polling error is randomly distributed, meaning that any given year it’s as likely to be in a Dem direction as a Rep direction.
  10. From the article... And when he was arrested later that month in North Carolina, police searching his van found four rifles, a 9mm handgun, explosive materials, books on bomb making, and $509,000 in cash that’s believed to be his inheritance. ^^^Got dam, he’s got half a mil in the bank and this is how he spends his free time?
  11. That absolutely could be what they were doing. It also could be a targeted poll of only women or African Americans or LatinX or some other demographic group. There are a lot of reasons why a legitimate polling firm would do that.
  12. Not quite that explicit, but he did say “I take full responsibility” and immediately blamed China and everyone else.
  13. Trump didn’t have any kind of knock out type moment, so yeah that’s a win for Biden. At this point, every day that goes by without Trump making a dent in Biden’s lead is a win for Biden. And there are only a few days left in the race.
  14. There’s actually a name for it. They call it a “Gish Gallop”.
  15. Trump: I ran because of you, Joe. I ran because of you. I ran because of you. Biden’s answer should have been...
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