Leon Troutsky

Ahhh...I got the terms mixed up. You’re right.

Here’s a great website that doesn’t just have a day-by-day record of Trump’s comments on covid, but also includes statements by his administration and agencies about the virus on those same days. https://www.npr.org/2020/04/21/837348551/timeline-what-trump-has-said-and-done-about-the-coronavirus ^^^The difference in tone and messages between Trump and the health experts is striking.

Not to nitpick, but I’d say it’s more like the words and actions of a sociopath.

It’s literally on tape. Trump told Bob Woodward that he knew it was deadlier than the flu and downplayed the severity of it. Literally. On. Tape.

I mean, imagine the number of deaths if Cuomo had done nothing! NY would have like 18 million deaths by now! Good job Cuomo!

Ever notice how you react to a factual criticism by lurching to the most extreme other side of things? Me: Trump lied to the public and intentionally downplayed a virus he knew was more deadly than he let on. You: Well we don’t need the president telling everyone they’re going to die and there’s no hope!! Like, there’s a whole range of options in between those two scenarios. FDR didn’t lie about the threat of WWII. He also didn’t panic the public. Because a good leader can be truthful and reassuring at the same time. That’s what leadership looks like. Leadership is

He’s literally on tape saying he likes to down play the seriousness of it.

No blame for Trump, who is on tape admitting he knew it was more serious than he was telling the public. But all the blame for Cuomo. I don’t think Cuomo was having rallies with thousands of people packed indoors without masks or social distancing. I don’t think Cuomo was having state legislators crowd surfing at those rallies. Trump right now is still holding those rallies and they are tracing outbreaks in several states back to them. That’s not Cuomo. That’s the guy who you said did everything “perfectly”.

Trump admitted on tape that he knew it was deadlier than the flu and yet went around for months saying the opposite in public. He admitted on tape that he played down the seriousness of it. That’s the equivalent of negligent homicide, at best. (And no, I’m not saying Trump could be charged with that crime.)

Wait...we have exactly the same numbers we would have if we did everything perfect but Cuomo effed up and cost more lives than we otherwise would have. It can’t be one or the other...if our response was “perfect” then Cuomo’s response was likewise “perfect”.

I’m as fine as a lumpy barney going on a waffle stomp, thanks for asking! But seriously, things are fine here. I can’t complain because I’ve been very lucky to have gotten through everything unscathed so far. How you doing?

Hey, don’t come in here saddelbacking the boards!

Bah gawd, it’s SILENTBOB!!! He showed up on the boards like a Kentucky Klondike Bar!

“Yeah, but look at how bad it would have been if we had done nothing” is a very low bar when it comes to hundreds of thousands of dead Americans. We’re America. I’d like to think we’re capable of doing better than worst in the world in deaths. And sorry but humor tends to fall flat when a thousand people are dying every day and the President’s son is out there saying it’s “nothing”.

Joe Biden certainly can trip over his own tongue. That’s a funny video. This one, on the other hand, is less funny and more in the realm of disgusting and deadly...

I could also see a scenario like this. Part of the problem is that the swing states tend to all swing in the same direction, so if Biden wins NC he’s also very likely to win FL and AZ. They all move the same way most elections.

By the way, here’s a website from political scientist Michael McDonald who collects data on turnout: https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html Every Sunday he puts out a weekly evaluation. In the past, it was mostly about percent turnout and number of people who voted already. But this Sunday he said that he might include some predictives or analysis of partisan lean. It’s not like a forecast, but it should have some interesting insight.

If I have time — which is to say I probably won’t do it — I’m going to look at county-level turnout compared to partisan lean in 2016. It won’t be perfect, but it might give some insight into whether turnout is up more in Dem areas versus Rep areas.

Sorry, that was vague. What I mean is that Texas turnout has already surpassed 2016 turnout. In 2016, about 8.5 million people voted. Over 9 million people have already voted with several more days left to go. In Harris County, where Clinton beat Trump 56-43%, turnout is already over 1.3 million compared to 2016 turnout of 1.25 million. The increase in turnout this year appears to be record-setting. One expert on turnout expected over 150 million people will vote, representing about 65% of eligible voters. And they’re shattering records everywhere, but especially in places

Take a look at Texas right now.

Also, I don’t think “but covid” would be a convincing response to the polls being that wrong.

Yeah, that’s where I’m at right now, too. What I would say is that Arizona is awfully close (2.8%) and PA is trending Trump, but not yet at a rate fast enough to flip the numbers. Trump can win if he takes all of the close states (FL, NC, IA, OH) plus AZ and PA. That still seems within the realm of possibility to me. But if we get to election day and the numbers look like this, and Trump pulls off a win, then we’re going to have to consider whether polling has any actual value in this new era. IOW, a polling error of this magnitude would make us start asking if polls are completely

About the GDP news....it’s obviously great that the economy is making its way back. But something to keep in mind is that if you have $100 and lose 50%, you have $50. If you gain 50% back, you only have $75. As someone noted in another post, we’re not even close to being back to where we were before. And now we have a spike in covid threatening to upend everything yet again.

Remember when I called out Glenn Greenwald's hyperventilating bull**** about Russia when he first started this crap and people thought it was some kind of dunk on me that I incorrectly thought he was conservative? Fact is, I was right about his hyperventilating bull**** then and his actions since has just reinforced that he's a hack with a glaring bias.