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Leon Troutsky

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Everything posted by Leon Troutsky

  1. Easy bet. Only about 10 of them could bring themselves to remove her from committees for advocating murdering the Speaker of the House, the President of the United States, and a former candidate for President of the United States.
  2. Yeah, there’s a lot that they can do in the Senate that they can’t do in a courtroom. They could subpoena Trump to force him to appear, for example. (It would get tied up in court for years, but they could try it.) So they could argue adverse presumption in the Senate trial and it would be up to the senators whether they accept it or not.
  3. Absolutely, and I was just talking about the 11th being closer than the 14th. Trump only won the 11th with around 54% of the vote. Still solid, but closer than the 73% he got in the 14th. It won’t flip the 11th, but it will hurt Reps in statewide races.
  4. It’s also likely to cost them in places like the 11th, which leans GOP but has been shifting towards Dems, especially in Cobb. I would be very interested in seeing some polling about MTG’s popularity in the 14th district. It wouldn’t surprise me if she was rather unpopular and it wouldn’t surprise me if she was very popular. It’s such a weird, sprawling district spanning so many different areas — both lower income rural and middle class suburbs — that I”m not really sure how this is playing among her constituents. Remember that her Democratic opponent dropped out of the race, so
  5. Oh hey, about that vacay to Mexico... WASHINGTON, D.C. (KOSA) – Capitol rioter Jenny Cudd has been hit with five new criminal charges. In a newly unsealed grand jury indictment, prosecutors charged the Midlander with corruptly obstructing an official proceeding of Congress; entering and remaining in a restricted building; committing disorderly or disruptive conduct in a restricted building; committing disorderly conduct in a Capitol building; and parading, demonstrating, or picketing in a Capitol building.
  6. Voting technology company Smartmatic files $2.7 billion lawsuit against Fox News, Rudy Giuliani and Sidney Powell over 'disinformation campaign' The lawsuit, filed in New York state court, accused Fox, Giuliani, Powell and hosts Lou Dobbs, Maria Bartiromo, and Jeanine Pirro of intentionally lying about Smartmatic in an effort to mislead the public into the false belief that the 2020 presidential election was stolen from former President Donald Trump.
  7. Yeah, they can’t really compel him to testify. While the Congress isn’t an actual judicial procedure, typically the defense cannot force the defendant to testify. So I doubt the Senate would violate that norm and try to force him. So all the impeachment managers can do is ask him to testify.
  8. House impeachment team is going to ask Trump to testify under oath at the impeachment. I seriously doubt that happens.
  9. Which is why Dems should do what they think is right and do things that are popular with the public. And with the committee thing, highlight the death threats against Pelosi (and also Obama and Hillary) that MTG liked on social media as the bright line.
  10. I’ve been conflicted on the committee thing itself and I think it’s a terrible precedent, as you mentioned. However, she talked about murdering the Speaker of the House. And the only thing Dems are doing is removing her from committees. The Dems have been out front making the point that if any of their members did that then they would be okay removing them from committees. So if they’re clear that the standard is “members don’t advocate for murdering each other or they lose committees”, then it’s likely not going to be that big of a deal. And as much as I don’t like the majority par
  11. That messaging is definitely part of it. But I pointed out last year that Democrats are going to have to understand just how culturally and religiously conservative these areas are, and they’re going to have to make a tradeoff between economic policies and social policies. Those voters are open to economic populist messages, but Dems are going to lose those voters the second they start talking about trans rights, gun control, and other social issues.
  12. The GOP base isn’t the target anyway. The target are independent voters and leaning Republicans, especially suburban women Republicans. Those are the ones who have been swinging to Dems in elections recently, in part because of the conspiracy mongering and pandering to the likes of Qanon.
  13. The cowards in the GOP gave her a plum committee assignment and won’t take it away as this stuff continues coming out... Before she was elected to the House of Representatives as a member from Georgia, Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Trumpy, QAnon-friendly, conspiracy-toting, gun-lovin’, mass-shooting-denying, assassination-promoting lightning-rod Republican, was a top official of the Family America Project, a right-wing outfit. In that capacity, she served as one of a handful of moderators of the group’s Facebook page, which has provided a forum for death threats against Democrats, bigoted a
  14. The data clearly showed that only a small minority believed Obamacare didn’t go far enough. A much larger minority felt it went too far. That pretty clearly refutes your claim in the previous post suggesting that the opposition to Obamacare was that it was too little or not far enough. As for how the public reacts, it’s very well established that the majority of the public is moderate, neither leftwing nor rightwing. And it’s very well established that the public as a whole shifts to opposing more government spending and programs when Democrats are in power. So I think it’s a p
  15. You don’t need a large number of events if they are predictable. We don’t have a large number of playoffs with the Atlanta Falcons, but we can predict pretty accurately how they’ll end up.
  16. They’re putting Liz Cheney through the ringer and giving a standing ovation to MTG. Tells you everything you need to know about the Republican Party.
  17. I honestly don’t think he’s that smart and frankly he’s in way over his head.
  18. Some of it was lower Democratic turnout. But Independents also voted for Republicans 56-37%... https://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/election-results-2010/exit-poll/ They went for Democrats by almost the same margin in 2006. And while turnout is big, those swings among independents are as big or bigger in terms of the outcome. Those independents didn’t shift to vote GOP in 2010 because they wished Obama had passed M4A or had even liberal/progressive policies than what he passed.
  19. Of course midterms are driven by more than the public mood. The point is that the public shifts away from the party in power once that party begins enacting its agenda. There’s also the “surge and decline” theory related to turnout, which is what you’re getting at. Just like the economy also drives presidential elections. But what the data does show very clearly is that the public begins wanting more conservative policies when Democrats pass their agenda and they want more liberal policies when Republicans are in charge and pass their agenda. And that absolutely influences elections
  20. Except the data isn’t just about elections and it’s not just about midterms. Stimson’s data includes thousands of surveys asking about government spending across numerous issues on a quarterly basis. That’s not “assumptions about the electorate”...it’s literally facts about what the public wants regarding liberal/conservative policies over time and across numerous presidencies. So it transcends specific elections or even presidencies. It’s as close to a universal dynamic as we’ll find. Again, look at the data. You’re arguing against the facts. Also, polling wasn’t available before W
  21. It wasn’t “massive right-wing response to extremely left-wing policies”. It was the general public shifting away from more liberal economic policies and supporting Republicans who promised to reign in those policies. And once again, you can look at Jim Stimson’s data which shows that support for liberal policies began diving right after Obama took office and continued declining during his eight years. Then miraculously support for liberal policies increased shortly after Trump took office. Call it “fantasy” and whatever else you like. You’re arguing against the facts here.
  22. Out of touch indeed... https://www.huffpost.com/entry/obamacare-not-liberal-enough_n_5106981?1396985846=&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067 Just look at how many thought it wasn’t liberal enough compared to those who said it was too liberal! Just look at all those people clambering for single payer/public option! Edit: Also this... https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/there-isnt-a-secret-majority-supporting-obamacare/
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