Leon Troutsky

Remember when the left twitter people were running around saying that Pelosi and Schumer weren't going to provide covid relief for Americans and they were just going to bail out corporations? It's a wonder why people continue to take those narratives or the people who spouted them seriously.

The reason the GOP couldn't repeal Obamacare was because it wasn't unpopular. It was actually moderately popular with the public. Unpopular laws and policies would result in even bigger Dem losses and almost instant repeal when the GOP gets power. The "shove it down their throats and they'll like it eventually" assumes (without any real evidence) that the policies the left are pushing will become popular once enacted. I could see some of them becoming more popular, but not as many as you seem to think.

I think the size of the congressional losses will determine how seriously they move away from Trump. If Dems pick up 5-6 senate seats, I'm not sure the GOP can regain the majority until 2024.

There will always be a swing in the opposite direction as long as the two parties are polarized. It's baked into the system. The majority party should only expect to have two years to pass its agenda, and the more of their agenda they pass in those two years, the stronger the swing in the opposite direction will be. One of the problems with rooting for Dems to lose this year is that there's zero reason to believe that the public is clambering for a far left policy agenda. The majority of the public is fairly moderate and doesn't like extreme policies from either side. The GOP ran face first into this political reality with their "repeal Obamacare" stuff. There's a reason why they couldn't do it legislatively even though they had Congress and the WH. This idea that the public is rejecting centrist Dems BECAUSE they are centrist, and that if only the Dems would put the Squad and Bernie in charge, that the public would rally behind their agenda has always been yet another false Left Twitter narrative. Here's the political reality of where things are heading. There will be a vaccine in the next year or so and the economy will start to improve. Whoever is in charge will get credit for that recovery, whether they deserve it or not. That means that if Trump wins this year, he and the GOP are going to be in a MUCH stronger position electorally in 2024 because they can take credit for the recovery, even if it's slow. That doesn't mean they're a lock in 2024, but if covid is under control and the economy is better than it is now, the argument for wholesale economic changes like what the Bernie people want becomes very, very weak. "Yeah, things are better under Republican policies, but we want POLITICAL REVOLUTION NOW!!!" It just falls flat. Edit: It's also obviously possible that the economic recovery is slow and drags on a few years. The likelihood of double digit unemployment for the next four years doesn't seem very likely to me, but we could be above 5% unemployment for several years. A big reason that the GOP won Congress was because Obama got tagged with the slow recovery, and the same could happen to Dems if Biden wins. The point is that looking ahead four years from now, the party in the WH will have a stronger case to make based on the recovery and getting covid under control.

JFC, are they actually sending out tweets from Herman Cain’s official twitter after he died? Who are these f’ing monsters?

Her district includes Paulding County...y’know, where the pics of students packed into halls got the two who posted the pics suspended. Of course she’s going to win.

Morons... On Tuesday, as Florida set a daily record for covid-19 deaths, Marion County Sheriff Billy Woods prohibited his deputies from wearing masks at work. His order, which also applies to visitors to the sheriff’s office, carves out an exception for officers in some locations, including hospitals, and when dealing with people who are high-risk or suspected of having the novel coronavirus.

See the second paragraph of the post you quoted.

There are other long-term consequences for players than death. And your comment was much more general than players. It was about media coverage. Hard to say it's been overblown when 160,000 people have died in the past 4-5 months.

People need to stop saying stuff like this because it gives a dangerously false impression. Everybody is at risk of dying and death isn't the only consequence of being infected. There are people with long-term respiratory problems following infection and people who have other very serious health problems, including cognitive and neurological issues. It's this kind of "well I'm this age so I'm not at risk" mentality that is also helping spread the disease as people engage in risky behaviors (bars, crowds, etc). And somebody under 40 might not show any symptoms, but they are absolutely a risk to the entire rest of the population. So simply catching it, even if (especially if) you suffer no symptoms at all, is putting everybody else at risk and keeping us from getting this under control.

Actually... The outcome of this one race will not impact the House majority, but Democrats have already signaled that they will invoke Greene in their campaign messaging. Rep. Cheri Bustos (D-Ill.), chairwoman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a statement that “Republican candidates running across the country, will have to answer for her hateful views in their own campaigns.” “Marjorie Taylor Greene is a next-generation Steve King who is now the Republican nominee for Congress because Minority Leader McCarthy refused to meaningfully oppose her racist candidacy,” Bustos said.

Yeah, what's a 160,000 dead Americans in four months? People overreacting indeed!

They don't and that adds a level of uncertainty to the models beyond what's already there. That said, 538's model along with some others are based on polls which, in a few weeks, should start incorporating likely voter models that would pick up some of that effect, especially during early voting. It won't account for all of it, but it at least mitigates some of it.

538 up with it’s election forecast: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ Currently gives Trump a 29% chance of winning, however that’s because there’s a lot more time left in the election. I thought this was interesting: The uncertainty in our current 2020 forecast, conversely, stems mostly from the fact that there’s still a long way to go until the election. Take what happens if we lie to our model and tell it that the election is going to be held today. It spits out that Biden has a 93 percent chance of winning. In other words, a Trump victory would require a much bigger polling error than what we saw in 2016.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/08/11/kamala-harris-vp-background-bio-biden-running-mate-2020-393885 While attending law school in San Francisco, Harris lived with her sister, Maya, and helped potty-train Maya’s daughter. “I’m dealing with this brutal stuff, dog-eat-dog in school, and then I would come home and we would all stand by the toilet and wave bye to a piece of s***,” Harris recalled in 2018. “It will put this place in perspective.”