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NFL Draft Fan 07

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  1. I posted all these stats in my article: https://tommeltonscouting.wordpress.com/2011/10/10/matt-ryan-is-he-overrated/ Not sure where Pat got that stat, but ESPN listed him as 10/38 on all throws that were 21+ yards or further. Definitely not 40+%. However, his best season was his rookie year when he was 21/55 on 21+ throws for 755 yards, 5 TD's and 2 INT's. So it's been a steady regression ever since.
  2. I mentioned this in my article that was posted yesterday. Ryan had his best season in this department as a rookie and has steadily become less efficient on downfield throws. It's pretty perplexing, but it has a lot to do with his arm strength.
  3. That's the thing though, Ryan has been being discussed as a potentially elite QB since he was a rookie. Every year the excuse is "well it's only his 2nd year, wait for year three" then it's "well it's year three, just wait for year four." Now it's year four and now QB's can't be judged until after five years. I'm just saying, every year he doesn't take significant steps forward then it is explained that he needs another year before he can be fairly judged. At some point you have to take stock of what he is and what he realistically might become. And I think it's fair to say that he isn't going to develop into an elite quarterback after watching him play for over three years. That's all this was about.
  4. Yes it requires more arm strength than Ryan has because it's a raw arm strength kind of throw without his feet set. I can't say that it was that great of a decision even though it worked out well, because it was a bit of a 50/50 ball that Smith just went up and made a play on in my opinion. Still a great throw from a physical standpoint, but I'm not sure it was the best decision. I agree he was bailing prematurely, but if his eyes were upfield the whole time you'd think he would have found Smith sooner than he did. Regardless, I agree it was a play made my a playmaker from Newton's perspective but also from Smith's perspective. If he doesn't go up and make a play on that then this is just another forced pass into coverage when Cam was off balance, but instead Smith made a great play, stayed up after the contact and scored. I'd have to think about it, especially since I haven't seen every rookie QB who has played since Marino. I would agree that he has more pocket awareness than Vick did. Cam is a special player because he has had success at every level he's played at even in spite of a lack of experience. He's a special player that I'm learning from evaluating.
  5. The reason he doesn't have his feet set is that he was getting ready to take off and run before he pulled up before he cross the LOS after he saw Smith downfield. Can't tell if he drops his eyes or not, but he was not just "calmly stepping up into the pocket" he was getting ready to scramble for the first down before he made a very impressive throw without setting his feet.
  6. In the couple of games that I have seen of him this year that wasn't always the case. But there will be plenty of time to see if he plays like you say he does. I would disagree with you about him having the best pocket awareness of any rookie QB since Marino, but that's just my opinion.
  7. You are mistaking pocket awareness and pocket mobility for Cam consistently looking to leave the pocket rather than side step and make throws within the pocket. Cam is an impressive QB for a rookie, but let's not act like he is a perfect, mechanically sound QB that everyone knew was going to be a stud. He vastly outperformed my expectations but he still misses throws, holds onto the ball too long at times and will force passes into coverage. He's a rookie and he's playing well, but let's try to keep this in perspective.
  8. Trig I was never a "huge home and ryan lover" in fact when he came into the league I questioned whether he could be a good QB at all due to a lack of arm strength. After I watched him play and he played well I admitted that I was wrong and that he had the arm strength to be a quality QB in the NFL and had optimism like the rest of the fan base that he could be a really good QB based off of his rookie season. The last two years I patiently waited and supported him waiting for him to make his mistakes and ultimately progress from them. Last year I thought he was getting ready to put it together and get us a playoff win, but it didn't happen. But even before that I was questioning whether he was a franchise QB and a potentially elite QB as you can see by my post a year ago that I linked that article to. I refuse to get into an argument with you about this, but I had to respond to this pretty blatant exaggeration of what was actually true.
  9. I'm just not convinced that he has that potential to be like Brady even in that offense. Brady makes the guys around him better in that scheme and has played very well without much of a running game for a number of years without the same playmakers that Ryan has had. Look what happened when Brady had Moss, he broke a TD record. Then he left and the Patriots didn't skip much of a beat, and Brady started the season this year like a man on fire. There's nothing wrong with admitting that Ryan is a good QB but that he isn't great. It just means that we need to have a better defense to win a Superbowl with him, and that if our running game gets slowed down he won't be able to put on a cape and save the day like some of the best QB's are able to. Knowing that and moving forward with that in mind so we can adjust would be better for us than just making excuses for why he hasn't become elite yet.
  10. Just because people are acknowledging the fact that Ryan isn't an elite QB and, in my opinion, probably never will be doesn't mean that they are blaming him exclusively for our 2-3 record. Our pass defense is bad and needs to be upgraded (both our secondary and our pass rush) and we need a LT and a RG unless Mike Johnson can step up at RG. Later in the season if we aren't in the playoff hunt I would like to see him get his shot at that spot. Ryan isn't the reason we are 2-3, but he has contributed to it just like everyone else.
  11. I think Ryan has good/great positional players. LT and RG are serious issues on our OL, and Hawley is unproven at Center. I saw some things last night that made me a little optimistic, but it's a small sample size. Having a LT like Baker is a serious issue that needs to be addressed. Only problem is we don't have a shot at a quality OT because we dealt away so many picks for Julio. And it's pretty clear that Turner has lot a step or two. He's not the same player he was before we wore him down with so many carries. In a year or two we are going to regret not picking up another every down back to replace Turner imo. Our defense definitely needs to be upgraded though. RE, CB and potentially both safeties. I'm comfortable with our DT's right now, though I've never loved our scheme relying on undersized defensive tackles.
  12. The fact that we got to Rodgers as much as we did says a lot considering they were playing without Bulaga and Clifton for almost the entire game says a lot about our pass rush: It needs to be upgraded.
  13. You make some good points, some similar ones that I made in my article, but to insinuate that Vince Young, David Garrard and Ryan Fitzpatrick would be preferable to Matt Ryan in our scheme with our current personnel is pretty ridiculous in my opinion. There are some debatable guys on there, but obviously you would prefer a guy like Rodgers, Brady, etc. They're elite QB's who are proven Super Bowl champions. We can win with Ryan, we just need to surround him with more talent than we anticipated. We need to bolster our offensive line (LT and RG, we aren't as far away as I thought. Hawley has upside imo, still young, Blalock and Clabo have been reliable), find a replacement for Abe ASAP, and upgrade our secondary (CB opposite Grimes plus nickel, and I'm not sold on either of our safeties in coverage). We aren't as good as people thought we were after our season last year, we still have holes, but we have to draft better.
  14. In the three losses last year Turner had 19 carries for 42 yards (L to Pitt), 15 carries for 45 yards (L to Eagles), 17 carries for 48 yards (L to Saints). It's arguable we should have lost to the 49ers if not for Roddy's miracle forced fumble, and that game was close as Turner had 16 carries for only 50 yards. In our wins: AZ- 9 carries, 75 yards NO- 30 carries, 114 yards and 1 TD CLE- 19 carries, 140 yards CIN- 23 carries, 121 yards, 2 TD's TB- 24 carries, 107 yards, 2 TD's BAL- 17 carries, 39 yards (close game, 26-21 but we won despite Turner) STL- 28 carries, 131 yards, 1 TD GB- 23 carries, 110 yards, 1 TD TB- 24 carries, 88 yards, 1 TD CAR- 28 carries, 112 yards, 3 TD's SEA- 25 carries, 82 yards (bad game for Turner) CAR- 17 carries, 67 yards, 1 TD There are probably two or three (perhaps four) games on this list where Turner wasn't much of a factor. But overall Turner had effective games in the majority of our wins. Then, against GB, he was a non-factor with only 10 carries for 39 yards and 1 TD. More times than not, when Turner doesn't have a quality YPC or over 75 yards we lose. Not one time last year did Turner his 75 yards and we lost. But when he's bottled up we struggle.
  15. I wrote an article last year at about this same time suggesting that Ryan was not an elite quarterback, rather that he was a good quarterback that we could win a Superbowl with if we had a good team around him. He's not a guy that makes everyone around him better necessarily. After watching Ryan for the first five games of this season, I'm still not convinced that he's ever going to be an elite quarterback. So here is my post that I put up earlier today explaining why I think that way. http://tommeltonscouting.wordpress.com/2011/10/10/matt-ryan-is-he-overrated/ Looking forward to seeing what some of you think about this.
  16. Interesting stuff dude. Kind of hard to believe that the Eagles are so low, they are usually regarded as one of the better drafting teams. The Ravens are lower than I expected them to be as well. Just imagine how good the Raiders % would be if they didn't waste picks on one or two guys every year just because of their 40 yard dash time.
  17. lol I know for a fact stuff on here has been paused even if intentional. **** was too gay to not get paused.
  18. Thanks for the thread. I'm excited to see how everyone looks tonight. Particularly Franks and any of our rookies (obviously Julio).
  19. Fantastic news. Really thought we were going to lose him. Now lock up Clabo, Grimes and grab a quality LE and I will be pleased as punch.
  20. Noel Devine is not a Falcon as it was reported earlier. Just wanted to give yall a heads up. Would be surprised if Charles Johnson left CAR. Tarvaris is apparently signing with the Seahawks. Gotta wonder what they are doing letting Hasselbeck go but signing Tarvaris. :wacko: :wacko:
  21. Check out my Twitter @TMeltonScouting I'm dropping as many as I can!
  22. Especially because even at 31... he hasn't been worn down like Abe would have been for example at that age. He just hasn't started a lot of games or gotten a lot of playing time... hopefully that means he has three or four more years of 8-10 sacks.
  23. I sure hope so... I am going to watch a couple games from the beginning of the year and the end of the year to see how he progressed over the course of the season. If he got better then there is reason to be optimistic, but I never noticed a ton of progress to be perfectly honest.
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