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Smiler11

Pure Football
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  1. Thanks
    Smiler11 got a reaction from Pacific_Falcon in 3 HC candidates   
    Saleh is another Dan Quinn, but dare I say it less successful. The 49ers defense was awful running his version of the Seattle defense. Kris Kocurek and Joe Woods installed the defense they've had success with the last 2 years. 
    Eric Bieniemy I think would be a huge risk and anyone expecting him to lead a similar offensive away from Andy Reid and Mahomes is in for a massive shock. 
    Riley again is a huge unknown in the NFL ranks. 
    I wouldn't be overly enamoured with any of the 3. Mike McDaniel or Joe Brady would be my choices, even then both would represent risks as neither has extensive play calling experience in the NFL. I think we should have pulled the plug on DQ a year ago and hired Kevin Stefanski. 
  2. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to 408Falcon in Y’all still want a scrambling mobile qb?   
    Whatever you all consider Tom Brady... I'd take one of those. 
  3. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to *TMo* in Matt LaFleur   
    We had Matt LaFleur on our coaching staff. Yep, right here in Flowery Branch. Our owner, front office, other coaches were not capable of recognizing a winner. How would you expect them to select one from the outside?
  4. Like
    Smiler11 got a reaction from JohnnyFranchise in Y’all still want a scrambling mobile qb?   
    Big difference between mobile QB's and run first QB's. Mahomes, Rodgers, Wilson etc. use their mobility to extend the pocket and make throws. Newton, Jackson, Taysom Hill etc are all looking to take off the first chance they get. 
  5. Like
    Smiler11 got a reaction from NCFalconfan in Blank + TD = No Lombardi, EVER   
    I don't think this roster lacks talent, it's just poorly coached. 
  6. Thanks
    Smiler11 got a reaction from matty72780 in Blank + TD = No Lombardi, EVER   
    I don't think this roster lacks talent, it's just poorly coached. 
  7. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to JD dirtybird21 in Y’all still want a scrambling mobile qb?   
    Lamar Jackson is definitely overrated. But, this league is for sure still a mobile QB league 
  8. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to LouDog in Y’all still want a scrambling mobile qb?   
    Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson are very good to great passing QBs that can also run. I'd love that type of QB. I dont want a run first QB though.
  9. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to Jesus in Reasons to be optimistic...   
    The team has done a lot of good things and should be able to close out games. It's a mental thing that they need to deal with but it isn't happening.
  10. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to Ergo Proxy in Mykal Walker   
    Could use more guys stepping up. Small bright spot of individual play yesterday.
  11. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to marvinthemartian in My absolute top requirement in a new HC and coaching staff   
    I could care less about rah rah, brotherhood, players coach, disciplinarian etc.
    What I want first and foremost is someone who can look across the field at Sean Payton, Andy Reid, Bill Belichik and the other great coaches in the league and not flinch. Someone who  can regularly OUTCOACH them. Better at Xs and Os and better at making adjustments. Team should always be prepared, play smarter, play harder and have a better game plan than the opposition. I want a smarter, better coach than any other coach we line up against. 
  12. Like
    Smiler11 got a reaction from Beast-N-Da-Sheetz in Somebody sell me on Jim Harbaugh as our next HC   
    His personality and coaching style is much better suited to the college ranks - he apparently rubbed a lot of players up the wrong way in San Fran. As a coach who's background is on the offensive side of the ball, his offensive system has become very stale and outdated and leaves a lot to be desired. I personally don't want anything to do with him.
  13. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to FalconsIn2012 in Falcons Conservative Offense: 2nd Down   
    Falcons are 5th-worst offense at generating 1st downs on 2nd down
    While the Falcons offense certainly hasn’t been the biggest issue through the first two weeks, a troubling trend has emerged. Atlanta is currently among the league’s worst offenses at generating 1st downs on 2nd down—a sign of an overly-conservative scheme.
     
    By Kevin Knight  on September 23, 2020 2:00 pm Even with the addition of Todd Gurley and an improved offensive line, the rushing attack is anemic at best. Atlanta is currently 15th in rushing attempts, but just 28th in rushing yardage—that’s totally unacceptable, but unfortunately quite familiar.
    The other aspect of the offense that I have a big issue with is the overly conservative playcalling, particularly on 2nd down. This has been an issue that has plagued Koetter’s offenses for most of his tenure, due to what I believe is a faulty overall offensive mindset. In general, there seem to be two schools of thought when it comes to offense: the more aggressive strategy of trying for 1st downs on every down, or the conservative strategy of trying to put yourself in favorable 3rd down situations (i.e. 3rd-and-short).
      Analytics is clear on which of these strategies is better, overall, for offenses. It should be obvious to most that trying to avoid 3rd downs altogether is the best strategy, as 3rd downs are inherently risky. Even 3rd-and-1 is a play you’d rather avoid, particularly if you’re the Falcons, because a failure means a punt more often than not. An aggressive strategy, particularly on 2nd down, is generally correlated with better overall offensive success. Hence the current backlash to coordinators who love to run on 2nd-and-long.
    Speaking of coordinators who love to run on 2nd-and-long, enter Dirk Koetter and a Falcons offense that is among the league’s worst at generating 1st downs on 2nd down.
       
    According to the chart, the Falcons are currently 5th-worst at generating 1st downs on 2nd down. The reason for this is actually twofold: a high percentage of rushing attempts coming on 2nd-and-long (7+ yards), and calling pass plays short of the sticks on those same downs. 
      For reference, the Falcons ran the ball on 41% (!!) of 2nd and 7-9 plays for a putrid 2.9 YPC. On 2nd and 10+, the Falcons ran on 29% of plays for an actually-good 7.8 YPC—though the sample size here is very small. Meanwhile, when passing on 2nd and 7+, the Falcons managed just 5.79 YPA—generally several yards short of the 1st down. This shows a scheme purposefully designed to put the team in 3rd-and-short situations, instead of a scheme looking to pick up 1st down yardage on 2nd down.
    There are good reasons why you shouldn’t run the ball on 2nd and 7+. If you don’t have an elite RB or rushing offense, you’re probably averaging close to 4.0 YPC—or if you’re the Falcons, more like 3.5 YPC. That means that an “average” result on a rushing play would not result in a first down, and even a well above-average play (say, a 7-yard run for the Falcons, double the average) would be unlikely to get you there either. So you’re essentially playing for 3rd down instead of actually expecting to get a 1st down.
    Meanwhile, a pass on 2nd and 7+ offers far more upside for a passing offense as talented as Atlanta’s. To use a similar example, an “average” play for the passing attack is currently 8.0 yards. So Matt Ryan and the passing attack would be expected to generate a 1st down on 2nd and 7-8 on an “average” play, which should occur about 50% of the time. On an above-average play (double the YPA, so 16.0 yards), the Falcons would convert easily. This strategy actually presents an opportunity to avoid the risk of a 3rd down altogether, and is also more likely to produce a third-and-short than a 2nd down run! However, you need to actually call downfield routes in these situations or it all falls apart, as you can see by the Falcons’ anemic 5.79 YPA on 2nd-and-long.
      Interestingly, the Falcons don’t take this conservative approach on 1st down—and it’s led to a lot of success. On 1st-and-10, the most run-heavy down in the NFL, Atlanta actually tends to pass more often than run (55% pass, 45% run). They’ve also been very aggressive on this down when throwing the ball, averaging 10.4 YPA on 33 attempts, and have generated more 1st downs on 1st-and-10 than they have on 2nd down period (14 1D on 1st-and-10, 9 1D on 2nd downs). This 1st down passing success hasn’t translated to the run game, unfortunately, as Atlanta’s rushing attack has generated a very mediocre 3.3 YPC in these same situations.
    What we’re seeing here is a weird mismatch of aggressiveness and conservative playcalling that...well, don’t make much sense. Clearly, this Falcons team is adept at passing the ball downfield in long down-and-distance situations. ****, they’re actually significantly better when facing longer situations: the Falcons worst down-and-distance is currently 3rd and 1-3, where they’ve averaged a putrid 0.66 yards per play. So why do they turn into a conservative, “play for a 3rd-and-manageable” offense when 2nd down hits?
    It has to be a philosophical decision on the part of Dirk Koetter, because the stats clearly show that this offense is best when it’s attacking downfield. We know Atlanta came into the season wanting to lean on the run game and deliver a more balanced attack, but with perhaps the league’s worst defense that isn’t really a viable strategy anymore. Not to mention that Koetter really doesn’t have a good feel for calling the running game and hasn’t done so successfully since his days in Jacksonville with Maurice Jones-Drew.
      Obviously, we’re still very early in the season and these stats are drawn from a sample of less than 200 plays. Numbers could change quite significantly over the coming weeks, and we should have a stronger overall picture in time. But the fact that the Falcons are playing so conservatively on 2nd down is a bad omen for a team that is going to depend on the offense to put up 30+ points a week to have any chance of victory.
    It’s time to embrace the truth: the Falcons should be a pass-first, aggressive downfield attack. Dirk Koetter and Dan Quinn should stop trying to make them into something they’re not. Let Matt Ryan, an excellent WR trio in Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Russell Gage, an ascending TE in Hayden Hurst, and an improving offensive line go out there and take over games.
    https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2020/9/23/21452514/falcons-are-5th-worst-offense-at-generating-1st-downs-on-2nd-down-nfl-2020-dirk-koetter-why
     
     
  14. Haha
    Smiler11 reacted to Lornoth in “We definitely can play better.”   
    Can't play much worse.
  15. Like
    Smiler11 got a reaction from opensource001 in NOTES: Ulbrich Still Primary Playcaller   
    Passing the buck
  16. Haha
  17. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to marvinthemartian in This is a great article and video about Mike McDaniel of the 49ers. It is well worth the time to check it out   
    https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/why-the-49ers-probably-will-lose-mike-lafleur-and-mike-mcdaniel-in-2021
    This guy is a 49ers writer/insider and he makes it clear that McDaniels, and not LaFleur, is the brains behind the 49ers offense/run game and that it would be a huge blow to the 49ers if he left. Well worth the time it takes to read it/watch the video. This guy would be worth a serious look. 
  18. Like
    Smiler11 got a reaction from BUBBASBEANS in Eric bienemy   
    I would go this route. Yes he's unproven as a head coach, heck he's unproven as an OC, but we need a consistent identity on offense and the only way to do that is have an offensive minded head coach. McDaniel as HC and Mike LeFleur at OC know the Kyle Shanahan offense, an offense we are still allegedly running, as well as anyone not named Shanahan. Pair them with someone like Morris at DC, a former HC, and give him complete autonomy on that side of the ball.
  19. Like
    Smiler11 got a reaction from Domed Outter in Eric bienemy   
    I would go this route. Yes he's unproven as a head coach, heck he's unproven as an OC, but we need a consistent identity on offense and the only way to do that is have an offensive minded head coach. McDaniel as HC and Mike LeFleur at OC know the Kyle Shanahan offense, an offense we are still allegedly running, as well as anyone not named Shanahan. Pair them with someone like Morris at DC, a former HC, and give him complete autonomy on that side of the ball.
  20. Like
    Smiler11 got a reaction from Tim Mazetti in I am very disappointed, today is my birthday   
    I would say happy birthday and have a great day buddy, but it feels a bit contrived now. 🤣
  21. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to UnrealfalcoN in Stop with the Lamar Jackson would be better than Matt Ryan nonsense   
    QBs who are supposedly better than Ryan have come and gone from the league since He's been drafted. Only Russell Wilson has surpassed Matt with Maholmes on the way. 
    Lamar COULD be a better QB than Matt, but he's not yet. A better athlete? Sure.
  22. Haha
    Smiler11 reacted to 1989Fan in Howie Roseman stole Duke Riley from the Falcons   
    No, no, no...we were Trfoffed when we took him because he sucks, and we were Troffed when we traded him because he doesn’t suck...make sense?
  23. Thanks
    Smiler11 got a reaction from Falcons Fan MVP in Time To Move On From Cover 3   
    It seemed like there was conscious decision to move away from cover 3 in the back half of last year, which makes a ton of sense given Morris' background with Tampa 2 and the personnel we have. It's mind boggling that we ran so much of it in week 1. I hope this isn't a sign of DQ meddling in the defense again. 
  24. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to FalconsIn2012 in Time To Move On From Cover 3   
    Once Morris took over mid season we started utilizing a lot more Tampa 2 variations to great success.  For some reason we went away from it Sunday.  Hopefully that  trend does not continue moving forward.  We suck in single high and Cover 3...lol
     
     
  25. Like
    Smiler11 reacted to Cole World in AJ Terrell: Surrendered 100 Yards and Perfect 158.3 Passer Rating   
    @g-dawg @caponine @Smiler11 and I all liked CJ Henderson but not in a trade up.
    AJ will be fine.
     
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