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Everything posted by schwarzenegger321

  1. Mike Vick was our most expensive player on the Field. He had an outstanding Oline the whole time he was here and a very good defense. He still never had back to back winning seasons and never made it to a Super Bowl. Cam Newton made it to one Super Bowl and other than that did nothing and that year he had the best defense in the league, a top ten Oline and a very good supporting running game. Mahomes has one of the best Olines in football. Wilson had a top three defense, top 10 running attack and very good Oline when Seattle was regularly going to the playoffs. Your logic is flawed. A mobile QB, no matter how good, will fail miserably without a defense and Oline. To think otherwise is just stupid.
  2. I use to think the OP was just obnoxious. Now, pretty sure he is just an idiot that tries to have smart prose. Not only is his post not factual, there are some down right incorrect statements.
  3. I lol'ed at this because it's true. How many times does Chuck Smith get brought up as some type of magician with fixing a D lineman. Dude has got zero results. I don't recall a single player that Chuck Smith has worked with that was anything but hot trash.
  4. I would actually be okay with Bill Cowher. I don't think he wants to coach, but if he did why not? I lived in Pittsburgh for a few years when he coached. He kept that team disciplined, didn't put up with any BS and took a team to the Super Bowl that wasn't very good. Plus he likes the 3 - 4 and can evaluate talent, especially defensive talent, really well.
  5. I'm not sure why people think Takk had any value at all. The fact that he was picked up and maybe the Raiders wanted him means nothing. Actually, it means that he had less value. The Bengals are in desperation mode. This is a blind shot to see if they can get anything out of the scrap heap. The Falcon's have done this for years. Takk only has value, IF he signs a contract next year. He won't. The dude is a bum.
  6. Ehh, disagree. The equation takes performance, post season awards and playing time into the formula for assigning compensatory picks. Takk has no post season awards and his performance was below average. The only thing that would have brought up his value is playing time, but guess how many snaps out of possible snaps he has taken? It's well under 50%. Benching him would have lowered that number. Takk was worthless for a trade or compensatory pick. He has no value. Cutting him was the best thing we could have done.
  7. This is just a stupid statement. Comp pick?? Really, does this dude even understand that you don't just get a pick because we trade him. To even be considered for a comp pick you have to 1. Lose more value than you gain from FA. So, trading players does squat for Comp picks. You have to lose them from free agency. 2. Compensatory picks are determined by the value of the contract signed minus the free agents playing time and post season awards. Let's see, Takk has no awards and was mostly injured. Really think we are getting anything? 3. If say Takk was to eek out a 7th round pick, if we take any free agents of equal value to the round we pick him up, we loose that pick. Compensatory free agents gained cancel a Compensatory free agent lost. Bottom line, there is about a 99.9999% chance we would have gotten anything for Takk if we kept him and let him walk at the end of the year. And you don't get compensatory picks for traded players, so really the question is, is he worth being on the team for a "possible pick". And, if we benched him, his value drops since playing time goes into the equation.
  8. Yeah agreed. There is no way in the world we would have gotten any compensatory pick for him. He may be lucky to sign a one year, low value deal, but that won't be worth anything. Maybe, and that is a big Maybe, we would have gotten a 7th for him, but do you really want that azzhat on the team for a 7th.
  9. No, this is a realistic football fan. The typical falcons fan is what you are being. Get all excited about beating a really bad team, when you have more talent, and then watch as the team gets embarrassed against a good team the following week and saying, "gee, we could have won if...". No, the coaching on this team is bad, the owner who wants to win badly is not considering what it takes to win and there are some players that shouldn't be on the field, much less starting, but they do on the Falcons. Let me know when we beat a team with a winning record, then maybe you have a point. Until then, blow!
  10. Yeah, the Broncos were a much better team. We should have beaten the Patriots, but we were lucky to squeak by the Vikings.
  11. Why was he coach of the week? For almost letting a really bad team, with no NFL talent on offense, almost come back by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter?
  12. Agreed. Not trying to pizz on a good thing, but how many times have we seen this. The Bronco's aren't very good, so in a way a good measuring stick. We should have the talent to win two games in a row against bad teams. The following two weeks will be interesting against New Orleans then Oakland, I mean Vegas.
  13. It was Carolina, who are in full rebuilding mode. They didn't have their best and only good offensive player in the game. Our defense did nothing special, they just didn't suck as much as the other team. Next week we will see the real falcons defense.
  14. We disagree then. Our corners are hot trash. A.J. might be good, but he is a rookie so really can't say much about him his first year. Maybe the corners are being coached to be in the wrong position almost every play, but I think they are overcompensating for the fact they are just not that talented. The draft line with A.J. coming out of clemson was that he was a good athlete and physical, but lacked technique. That has show this year and his coaches are not helping him. My god, the CB's even sit in the incorrect zone when in zone coverage much less play man. Half of the TD's thrown on us this year is because the CB is in the wrong position. That is not the safeties fault but they suck too. I think Gurley's problems are the fact that there is a Dlinemen two yards deep in the backfield on 50% of the running plays. A lot of that is the coaching, but we have the wrong Oline to hold up to the type of running game Gurley is suited for.
  15. Yes, some QB's call the plays and others do it more scripted than others. Peyton Manning is a prime example of someone who would call the play and here is an article that talks about it. https://www.denverpost.com/2007/01/30/manning-the-master-of-changing-plays/ I'm not talking about coming up to the line and changing to some random play, there are plenty of QB's that come to the line, see the D and then "adjust" the play. Mario use to do it all the time too.
  16. I dunno man. I am not an expert but I have never seen over the cap wrong. I've know people who buy the premium service and they say the data you get is incredible. If there is contrary info, I hope someone posts it, but until they do, I am going to believe over the cap numbers.
  17. I don't disagree we have talent, especially in the skill positions, but here is my opinion and this is where the debate should be had. We have no feasible secondary. I don't see it. Pretty sure Neal is done and he is in the last year of his contract. Again, in my opinion we don't have a starting caliber secondary player on the team. Our DE situation is bad. I don't think Takk will be back, nor should he. Fowler is not utilized properly, but not worth the money we are paying him. Maybe he stays, but we need three reliable DE's and hopefully one is a stud. Fowler is the only one I would call reliable. I like the individual pieces to the Oline, but we do not use them effectively and the right side has some problems. Plus Mack is undersized and probably done this year. We need at least two new Olinemen to really be effective again IMO. With a trade, I am purely looking at draft capital and Cap savings in two years. Starting over sucks, but I really think it is the best way for the Falcons to win it all.
  18. I thought so too, but according to over the cap, only if a trade occurs during the season (or a player is cut) (pre June 1st) does the entirety of the guaranteed money get accelerated. If they trade post June first and before the start of the next season, the money is amortized over the life of the contract with the trading team responsible for the guaranteed money and the new team for the base salary. Ryan also has two 7.5 million roster bonuses for the last two years. If he is traded prior to the third day of the following season, he loses that money.
  19. A player has to follow the rules. I get that. Every player is doing a specific task, a specific way on a specific play. Sure, an audible is a preset alternate call to the played called in the huddle. There is usually only one audible play. But here is the thing. Like the OP said, Ryan has 12 years in the league and 10 with Julio. You cannot tell me that these guys don't line up and know where the gaps are. Every defense has them. You can make subtle changes to routes with it is obvious something is not open once you see the defense. In my opinion. This is the single biggest hit against Ryan. Sometimes you have to take a chance and just go against what you are told to do. Ryan never does that.
  20. Here is my opinion. I love Ryan and Julio. I would love to see them win it all here, but the team is terrible around them. No defense, and Oline that is built wrong and aging (Mack and Matthews). Just looking at the cap hit, IF we could get multiple 1 &/or 2nd round picks for them, we would have to consider trading them. Their combined cap hit if they play is just not reasonable and there is a flat or decrease in cap expected next year. We are already projecting to be 25.2M over the cap with our current roster, just on existing cap hits and before we sign a single player. Trading Julio and Matt would free up 16 million in cap space but we will have to get a QB. We are probably fine at WR.
  21. There are a lot of incorrect assumptions about a trade, so I am putting some numbers from over the cap here. Over the cap is one of the best sites on the interwebs and the data is reliable, especially if you pay for their premium service, which I do not. I am not an expert, but it's not hard to find the trade deadlines rules. If there is someone with more or better info, please reply just do us all a favor and present the data and the source of the data. I've tried to remove all of my bias below: For Ryan, a trade this season is highly unlikely because if you trade a player in season (prior to June 1st, or cut them) all remaining bonus cap hit shifts to that year. Not considering anything else, the Falcon's don't have the cap space to cut or trade him. As seen below, if we trade him before the deadline this year, the cap hit immediately goes to 69 million, which is 49.9 million above his current cap hit, plus a boat load the following years. (ignore the pull down in the top right, it won't cut and paste the setting I'm using but the numbers in the table are accurate). Year Age Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Guaranteed Salary Cap Number Cap % Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension Total $69,550,000 $87,100,000 $15,000,000 $15,300,000 $171,650,000 2018 33 $6,000,000 $11,700,000 $0 $6,000,000 $17,700,000 10.0% 2019 ๐Ÿ“ 34 $2,750,000 $13,050,000 $0 $2,750,000 $15,800,000 8.4% 2020 35 $1,050,000 $17,912,500 $0 $1,050,000 $18,962,500 9.4% $62,350,000 ($43,387,500) 2021 36 $23,000,000 $17,912,500 $0 $5,500,000 $40,912,500 23.0% $44,437,500 ($3,525,000) 2022 ๐Ÿ“ 37 $16,250,000 $17,912,500 $7,500,000 $0 $41,662,500 18.3% $26,525,000 $15,137,500 2023 ๐Ÿ“ 38 $20,500,000 $8,612,500 $7,500,000 $0 $36,612,500 15.2% $8,612,500 $28,000,000 If however, we trade him post June 1st, here are his numbers: Year Age Base Salary Prorated Bonus Roster Bonus Guaranteed Salary Cap Number Cap % Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension Total $69,550,000 $87,100,000 $15,000,000 $15,300,000 $171,650,000 2018 33 $6,000,000 $11,700,000 $0 $6,000,000 $17,700,000 10.0% 2019 ๐Ÿ“ 34 $2,750,000 $13,050,000 $0 $2,750,000 $15,800,000 8.4% 2020 35 $1,050,000 $17,912,500 $0 $1,050,000 $18,962,500 9.4% $17,912,500 $1,050,000 2021 36 $23,000,000 $17,912,500 $0 $5,500,000 $40,912,500 23.0% $17,912,500 $23,000,000 2022 ๐Ÿ“ 37 $16,250,000 $17,912,500 $7,500,000 $0 $41,662,500 18.3% $17,912,500 $23,750,000 2023 ๐Ÿ“ 38 $20,500,000 $8,612,500 $7,500,000 $0 $36,612,500 15.2% $8,612,500 $28,000,000 If we trade him post June 1st then we owe him 18 million next year, 18 million the year after and then go to a manageable 8 million in 2023. Note that if he plays our cap hit next year is 40.9 million, 41.6 million in 2022 and 36.6 million in 2023. Here are Julio's numbers. First if we trade him this year, which is unlikely: Year Age Base Salary Prorated Bonus Guaranteed Salary Cap Number Cap % Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension Total $51,026,000 $41,333,334 $28,000,000 $92,359,334 2019 30 $1,500,000 $8,866,666 $1,500,000 $10,366,666 5.5% 2020 31 $11,200,000 $9,216,668 $11,200,000 $20,416,668 10.1% $32,466,668 ($12,050,000) 2021 ๐Ÿ“ 32 $15,300,000 $7,750,000 $15,300,000 $23,050,000 12.9% $23,250,000 ($200,000) 2022 33 $11,513,000 $7,750,000 $0 $19,263,000 8.5% $15,500,000 $3,763,000 2023 34 $11,513,000 $7,750,000 $0 $19,263,000 8.0% $7,750,000 $11,513,000 And if we trade him post June 1st: Year Age Base Salary Prorated Bonus Guaranteed Salary Cap Number Cap % Dead Money & Cap Savings Cut (pre-June 1)Cut (post-June 1)Trade (pre-June 1)Trade (post-June 1)RestructureExtension 2019 30 $1,500,000 $8,866,666 $1,500,000 $10,366,666 5.5% 2020 31 $11,200,000 $9,216,668 $11,200,000 $20,416,668 10.1% $9,216,668 $11,200,000 2021 ๐Ÿ“ 32 $15,300,000 $7,750,000 $15,300,000 $23,050,000 12.9% $7,750,000 $15,300,000 2022 33 $11,513,000 $7,750,000 $0 $19,263,000 8.5% $7,750,000 $11,513,000 2023 34 $11,513,000 $7,750,000 $0 $19,263,000 8.0% $7,750,000 $11,513,000 Julio costs us 23M, 19.2M and 19.2M against the cap if he plays and 7.75M each year if he is traded post June 1.
  22. No, not wrong. Please stop talking and go to: https://overthecap.com/player/matt-ryan/823/ Ryan, as a post June 1 cut would count 23.4 million against the cap next year, a post June 1st trade would cost the Falcons 17.9 million next year. Whoever told you 76 million is an idiot and doesn't know what they are talking about.
  23. you spread the draft picks over two years. Teams are willing to do this more than giving up their whole draft one year.
  24. This is not true and has been disproven multiple times already. The difference in cap hit between if they are playing or traded is 500k more for Julio if he is traded and a little over three million if Ryan is traded. We arent going to win next year with them because we have no secondary, no respectable DE's and our Oline is terrible. Trade them when we can get something for them. Let next year be a rebuilding year and start getting some talent in here with a new GM and head coach. In two years they are off the books and we have a boat load of talent. Otherwise we have a HOF QB and WR on the ends of their careers who can do anything because we have no money to go get a secondary, DE's or Oline.
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