theProf

Pure Football
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Everything posted by theProf

  1. I joined the Board in the second year of Jim Mora being head coach, around 2005.
  2. vaughn mcclure‏ @vxmcclure23 14h14 hours ago More Falcons hire former Washington Redskins special teams coordinator Ben Kotwica, 44, for the same position. He spent the last five seasons with the Redskins. Prior to that, he held various position with the New York Jets from 2007-13, including special teams coordinator. vaughn mcclure‏ @vxmcclure23 14h14 hours ago More Dan Quinn and new special teams coach Ben Kotwica were on same New York Jets staff 2007-08. Quinn was def. line coach, while Kotwica was def/ST quality control. Kotwica spent 8 years in Army and was selected to fly the AH-64 Apache Longbow, the world’s best attack helicopter. vaughn mcclure‏ @vxmcclure23 14h14 hours ago More Ben Kotwica played at Army from 1993-96 and was a three-year starter at linebacker. He was the captain of the only 10-win team in Army history, leading the Black Knights to a 10-2 record and the program’s most recent Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy in 1996.
  3. Andy Levitre G 33 ATL TBD $7,800,000 UFA 0- SchaubMatt Schaub QB 38 ATL TBD $4,500,000 UFA 0- GarlandBen Garland G 31 ATL TBD $2,914,000 UFA 0- ShelbyDerrick Shelby DE 30 ATL TBD $2,000,000 UFA 0- BethelJustin Bethel CB 29 ATL TBD $1,750,000 UFA 0- McClainTerrell McClain DT 31 ATL TBD $1,525,000 UFA 0- IrvinBruce Irvin DE 32 ATL TBD $1,500,000 UFA 0- CondoJon Condo LS 38 ATL TBD $1,015,000 UFA 0- PaulsenLogan Paulsen TE 32 ATL TBD $1,005,000 UFA 0- IshmaelKemal Ishmael SS 28 ATL TBD $1,000,000 UFA 0- SambrailoTy Sambrailo LT 27 ATL TBD $961,489 UFA 0- RichardsJordan Richards SS 26 ATL TBD $927,887 UFA 0- CarterBruce Carter ILB 31 ATL TBD $915,000 UFA 0- BeadlesZane Beadles G 32 ATL TBD $915,000 UFA 0- Wreh-WilsonBlidi Wreh-Wilson CB 29 ATL TBD $880,000 UFA 0- ColemanTevin Coleman RB 26 ATL TBD $804,843 UFA Market Value MeansSteven Means DE 29 ATL TBD $790,000 UFA 0- HardyJustin Hardy WR 27 ATL TBD $705,205 UFA 0- JarrettGrady Jarrett DT 26 ATL TBD $631,963 UFA Market Value PooleBrian Poole S 26 ATL TBD $541,167 RFA 0- HallMarvin Hall WR 26 ATL TBD $510,000 ERFA https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/atlanta-falcons/ 0
  4. I previously projected 2 comp picks: a 4th and a 5th for the Falcons in the 2019 draft last March as follows: "Posted March 17, 2018 · Report post With the Falcons already losing Poe ($9 Million average per year), Gabriel ($6.5 million per year), and Clayborn ($6 million per year), I'm beginning to see some discussion about the Falcons possible compensatory draft picks for the 2019 NFL draft. I'm somewhat reluctant to discuss comp picks at this juncture, because the free agency period has just started, and a lot can change before the free agency period for determining comp picks ends. However, I do think that I should make some preliminary comments at this point to help straighten things out somewhat. If the free agency period were to end right now, the Falcons would get 2 Comp picks, because they have a Net Loss of 2 Compensable Unrestricted Free Agents (CUFA). Atlanta has already lost the aforementioned Poe, Gabriel, and Clayborn, but they have signed CUFA Brandon Fusco ($4.25 million per year) for a Net Loss of two. At this point, Fusco would cancel-out Clayborn, the lowest paid Free Agent lost thus far. That would leave Poe and Gabriel for determining comp picks and the respective rounds. Poe and his $9 million average compensation could possibly garner a 3rd-round pick. In the 2017 NFL draft, there were 11 3rd-round comp picks granted, including Alex Mack and LT Kelvin Beachum with average yearly compensation of $9 million each for Cleveland and Pittsburg respectively. Bruce Irvin and his $9.25 million yearly average garnered a 3rd-round pick for Seattle. The first Comp pick in the 4th round of the 2017 draft was awarded to Cincinnati for losing Marvin Jones and his $8 million per year average contract. So yes, I think Poe will more than likely get the Falcons a 3rd-round pick, unless the increased salary-cap for 2018 drastically changes the previous year's thresholds. (Subsequent Edit: However in analyzing the 2018 NFL draft comp picks, I've found that TJ Lang and his $9.5 million average yearly comp only got Green Bay a 4th-round comp pick in this year's draft. Lang played in 13 games in 2017, and once again made the Pro-Bowl. This might be indicative that the average salary threshold for a 3rd round comp pick might be getting greater due to the increasing salary-cap and salaries. If so, losing Poe might only get Atlanta a 4th-round comp pick, rather than a 3rd-round pick, in the 2019 draft. ) Gabriel would most likely garner the Falcons a 5th-round comp pick. An average yearly comp of $6.5 million is on the threshold between a 4th round and a 5th round comp pick for the 2018 draft."
  5. PFF final 2018 season grades and rankings in bold below, compared to grades/rankings as of the Bye Week in parentheses: Offense: Julio Jones 90.9 #3WR (89.7 #3WR as of Bye Week) Matt Ryan 84.3 #11QB (81.9 #10QB) Jake Matthews 79.1 #9OT (76.8 #13OT) Alex Mack 77.3 #3C (78.1 #3C) Mohamed Sanu 72.0 #40WR (69.2 #43WR) Ito Smith 69.5 #38RB (63.5 #39RB) Calvin Ridley 68.8 #53WR (72.5 #35WR) Ben Garland 68.7 #17G (76.8 Unranked, not enough snaps) Austin Hooper 68.5 #24TE (64.0 #28TE) Tevin Coleman 65.9 #47RB (51.7 #59RB) Wes Schweitzer 63.7 #28G (51.3 #66G) Ryan Schraeder 63.6 #54OT (61.7 #47OT) Logan Paulsen 62.9 #40TE (59.7 #41TE) Branden Fusco 60.2 #45G (60.2 #42G) Brian Hill 70.1 Unranked, not enough snaps Ty Sambrailo 67.0 Unranked, not enough snaps Ricky Ortiz 62.5 Unranked, not enough snaps Zane Beadles 57.7 Unranked, not enough snaps Defense: Grady Jarrett 91.0 #5DT (86.8 #10DT as of Bye Week) Demontae Kazee 77.9 #17S (77.9 #13S) Deion Jones 75.8 #12LB Desmond Trufant 71.4 #35CB (59.3 #81CB) Jack Crawford 71.3 #57DT (67.1 #63DT) Deadrin Senat 71.1 #59DT (73.5 #30DT) Sharod Neasman 67.8 #47S (60.6 Unranked) Brooks Reed 66.5 #60DE (64.5 #61DE) Jordan Richards 65.2 #62S (55.1 #77S) Foye Oluokun 64.6 #44LB (57.0 #58LB) Tak McKinley 62.2 #74DE (57.8 #84DE) Brian Poole 61.7 #83CB (57.7 #89CB) Bruce Irvin 59.0 #88DE De'Vondre Campbell 57.5 #65LB (61.0 #46LB) Robert Alford 56.6 #109CB (49.9 #103CB) Terrell McClain 56.2 #109DT (54.7 #98DT) Duke Riley 44.2 #85LB (43.6 #77 LB) Vic Beasley 42.2 #108DE (42.3 #101 DE) Rico Allen 77.5 Unranked, not enough snaps Steven Means 74.9 Unranked, not enough snaps Isaiah Oliver 70.0 Unranked, not enough snaps (58.2 Unranked as of Bye Week) Derrick Shelby 63.7 Unranked, not enough snaps Bruce Carter 55.5 Unranked, not enough snaps Kemal Ishmael 46.8 Unranked, not enough snaps
  6. Yes, teams can now trade comp picks.
  7. I do agree with you that Beasley and Hooper should have been rated higher by PFF. I also think Tak McKinley should have been rated higher, and possibly Oluokun. However, I think that Schraeder and Jordan Richards were rated too high by PFF, and should have been even lower.
  8. I don't know whether rescinded 5th year option players would count in the comp formula or not. I know that they would count in the comp formula, if their 5th-year options were never exercised to begin with. Still if Beasley's contract were to get rescinded and if he were to count in the comp formula, then Atlanta would still not get a comp pick for Beasley in the 2019 draft, but rather the following year 2020 draft. Atlanta's projected comp picks for the 2019 draft resulted from Free Agency activity in 2018. Most comp experts are projecting the following comp picks for the Falcons in the 2019 draft: "Atlanta Falcons Projected compensatory picks: Round 4; Round 5.Key free-agent losses: DT Dontari Poe (Panthers), WR Taylor Gabriel (Bears), DE Adrian Clayborn (Patriots).Key free-agent additions: C Brandon Fusco (Vikings).The skinny: The loss of Clayborn will be cancelled out by the addition of Fusco, which means Poe and Gabriel should bring the Falcons a fourth- and fifth-round pick, respectively." http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000933360/article/projecting-compensatory-picks-for-2019-nfl-draft
  9. I agree with most of the PFF grades, and disagree with some. Which specific players' grades look off to you?
  10. Isaac Nauta.
  11. I recall the biggest knock on Campbell coming out of college from scouting reports was his lack of instincts. One would think that years of NFL experience would have improved his instincts somewhat by now. Guess not, as lack of instincts still appear to be his greatest weakness.
  12. Whoops, I forgot to include Deion Jones and his grade/ranking of 75.8 #12LB in the initial topic post yesterday. Now have him included.
  13. Falcons show keen interest in Appalachian State guard Colby Gossett 38 comments That’s two names we’ve heard the Falcons linked to thus far. By Dave Choate Jan 24, 2018, Atlanta comes into the 2018 season with three true guards on the roster. Ben Garland is a free agent, so that leaves Andy Levitre, Wes Schweitzer, and Sean Harlow duking it out over three spots. If the Falcons stand pat, that is, and they probably won’t. That’s because Atlanta’s showing early interest in guards. Yesterday Charles McDonald noted the Falcons appeared to be paying attention to Georgia tackle Isaiah Wynn, who is widely expected to kick inside, and it was noted late last night that a Falcons scout was showing particular interest in Colby Gossett, a guard from Appalachian State. Gossett is a big fellow (6’6”, 311), a graduating senior, and a quality athlete who has four starting seasons under his belt at guard and fared well in both pass protection and as a run blocker. He’s not playing for a little anonymous program, either, as Appalachian State has been one of the titans of the FBS for a long time. Gossett checks all the boxes for Atlanta (senior, scheme fit, extensive starting experience), so it’s little surprise they’re interested. The big question is where he’ll be drafted. Right now, the sweet spot for Gossett seems like it’ll be late on Day 2 or early on Day 3, putting him in the 3rd-4th round range if Atlanta wants him. Alex Kozora @Alex_Kozora Atlanta Falcons scout having long conversation with Appalachian State OG Colby Gossett. #SeniorBowl 10:58 PM - Jan 23, 2018 The big question looming over any draft pick is where they’ll play, of course. The Falcons could simply try to shore up their depth after leaving Harlow inactive all year, or they could actively try to replace one of their starting guards. Levitre is getting older, remains expensive, and is coming off a triceps injury that ended his 2017 season, while Schweitzer cashed in an uninspiring but mostly solid 18 start season. A Day 1 or even Day 2 guard could conceivably start for either one, depending on which one the Falcons need to move on from more urgently. I’d have to think Gossett would be in contention for a starting job day one, as would Wynn. With the top three tackles on the roster more or less set at the moment, in-house guard depth to draw on, and Alex Mack at center, the only remaining hole on the offensive line outside of guard would seem to be backup center. We’ll see what the Falcons do to address that by April, too, I’d wager. https://www.thefalcoholic.com/2018/1/24/16927212/falcons-show-keen-interest-in-appalachian-state-guard-colby-gossett
  14. I believe that your son is correct. Zane Beadles' PFF grade for the season now stands at 42.8 following the Arizona game. Beadles' PFF grade for the season prior to the last game was a 50.1. He's bad and getting even worse. https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/zane-beadles/5570
  15. Sambrailo's PFF rating for the season, following the Arizona game, has now been increased to 77.1 from a 72.3 season rating prior to the last game. That moves Sambrailo ahead of Alex Mack's 76.6 PFF season rating, and is just slightly behind Jake Matthews' 79.6 PFF season rating. https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/ty-sambrailo/9492
  16. PFF Grades for the other Falcons OL for the 2018 season as follows: Ty Sambrailo 72.3 Ben Garland 71.1 Ryan Schraeder 65.1 Wes Schweitzer 61.8 Andy Levitre 61.2 Brandon Fusco 60.2 Zane Beadles 50.1
  17. For the 2018 season thus far, PFF has Trufant with a 62.5 rating (#60 ranked CB) AND Alford at 49.9 rating (#102 ranked CB).
  18. I would have thought that the Falcons would have cut DE Steven Means with the signing of Bruce Irvin rather than an OT.
  19. Technically Pasztor was re-signed on October 24, including a signing bonus of $90,000. That $90,000 bonus will now be dead money, and will count against the Falcons 2018 salary-cap.
  20. You are correct that PFF grades each play as positive or negative: "HOW DOES IT WORK? Before diving into the results of the system, let’s take a look at how it works. On every play, a PFF analyst will grade each player on a scale of -2 to +2 according to what he did on the play. At one end of the scale you have a catastrophic game-ending interception or pick-six from a quarterback, and at the other a perfect deep bomb into a tight window in a critical game situation, with the middle of that scale being 0-graded, or ‘expected’ plays that are neither positive nor negative. Each game is also graded by a second PFF analyst independent of the first, and those grades are compared by a third, Senior Analyst, who rules on any differences between the two. These grades are verified by the Pro Coach Network, a group of former and current NFL coaches with over 700 combined years of NFL coaching experience, to get them as accurate as they can be. From there, the grades are normalized to better account for game situation; this ranges from where a player lined up to the dropback depth of the quarterback or the length of time he had the ball in his hand and everything in between. They are finally converted to a 0-100 scale and appear in our Player Grades tool." https://www.profootballfocus.com/pff-player-grades
  21. Offense: Julio Jones 89.7 #3WR Matt Ryan 81.9 #10QB Alex Mack 78.1 #3C Jake Matthews 76.8 #13OT Calvin Ridley 72.5 #35WR Mohamed Sanu 69.2 #43WR Austin Hooper 64.0 #28TE Ito Smith 63.5 #39RB Ryan Schraeder 61.7 #47OT Ricky Ortiz 60.9 #3FB Branden Fusco 60.2 #42G Logan Paulsen 59.7 #41TE Tevin Coleman 51.7 #59RB Wes Schweitzer 51.3 #66G Ben Garland 76.8 Unranked, not enough snaps DeVonta Freeman 48.4 Unranked, not enough snaps Defense: Grady Jarrett 86.8 #10DT Demontae Kazee 77.9 #13S Rico Allen 77.5 #14S Deadrin Senat 73.5 #30DT Jack Crawford 67.1 #63DT Brooks Reed 64.5 #61DE De'Vondre Campbell 61.0 #46LB Desmond Trufant 59.3 #81CB Tak McKinley 57.8 #84DE Brian Poole 57.7 #89CB Foye Oluokun 57.0 #58LB Jordan Richards 55.1 #77S Terrell McClain 54.7 #98DT Robert Alford 49.9 #103CB Duke Riley 43.6 #77 LB Vic Beasley 42.3 #101 DE Derrick Shelby 66.2 Unranked, not enough snaps Bruce Carter 65.1 Unranked Sharod Neasman 60.6 Unranked Kemal Ishmael 59.5 Unranked Isaiah Oliver 58.2 Unranked (My Opinion: I think that PFF has seriously underrated Tak McKinley, and definitely underrated Matt Ryan)
  22. PFF Falcons top grades last game vs Giants PFF ATL Falcons @PFF_Falcons· Oct 23 Top 5 Graded #Falcons Defenders: Brian Poole - 90.0 Grady Jarrett - 85.9 Brooks Reed - 85.4 Duke Riley - 83.0 Foyesade Oluokun - 79.5 Top 5 Graded Falcons Offense: Matt Ryan - 90.1 Julio Jones - 83.8 Ben Garland - 76.8 Alex Mack - 74.0 Calvin Ridley - 68.5
  23. Thanks for posting. I knew that Ryan had been heavily pressured this year, but not the most pressured QB in the NFL thus far this season. Schraeder has really played badly this season. Not only pressures allowed, but penalties, and a lack of opening lanes for the running game.
  24. Just read where Ryan has been pressured on 36% of his pass attempts, more times than any other QB in the NFL this season. Evidently, PFF does factor pressures and time to throw into its QB rating as you say. This makes it all the more difficult to understand Matt Ryan's only being ranked as the #10QB by PFF thus far this season. From a PFF article: Quarterback Adjusted Completion Percentage PFF’s adjusted completion percentage metric is a better way of looking at a quarterback’s overall accuracy at it’s baseline. While our quarterback analysts are diving into actual accuracy by ball location, route type, depth of target and other factors, adjusted completion percentage is gleaned from our initial data collection of every game. Adjusted completion percentage takes into account factors outside of the quarterback’s control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw. Ultimately, this gives a real indication of completion percentage on passes that can actually be caught, as opposed to a quarterback’s completion percentage for a given game being tarnished by a load of receiver drops or other factors. Deep Passing A deep pass by PFF standards is any pass that is targeted and travels at least 20 yards in the air, past the line of scrimmage. We then have a variety of statistics that develop on just these passes such as attempts, completions, drops, yards, touchdowns, interceptions, passer rating, deep pass attempt percentage (amount of deep passes per every pass) and adjusted completion percentage on deep passes. Under Pressure Dealing with pressure is a huge part of playing quarterback, especially with the pass-rushers in the NFL and college nowadays and the pass-happy nature of the league. Under pressure passing is any time the quarterback is disturbed from his normal throwing motion from set up to release, or anytime a pressure is registered on a given passing play. Much like deep passing statistics, we then develop individual statistics off of just pressured passing. In addition to the usual suspects of yards, completions, attempts, passer rating and adjusted completion percentage, we also have pressure percentage (the amount of times a QB is pressured compared to total dropbacks) and sack percentage (the amount of time when under pressure a QB is sacked). Kept Clean Much like how dealing with pressure is a big part of playing quarterback in the NFL, playing from a pocket kept clean from pressure and within the offense’s structure is also vital, and proven to be much more stable from a year-to-year standpoint. Kept clean passing is relatively self-explanatory and is simply whenever a quarterback unleashes a pass without pressure being recorded on the play. We also keep track of the amount of time per total dropbacks a quarterback is kept clean as our ‘no pressure percentage’ metric. Play Action Play action is a major part of the NFL and football in general as it attempts to fool a defense by ‘faking a run play’ in attempt to open up passing lanes to different levels of the field. At PFF, we track all play-action passes and all non-play-action passes and craft all of our standard and signature statistics off the backs on whether a quarterback recorded a play fake or not. Unique to just play action passing, we also track the difference in completion percentage on play-action passes to non-play-action passes, showcasing which quarterbacks saw the biggest boost on the back of a play fake. Time in Pocket One of the more unique signature statistics at Pro Football Focus, the time in the pocket metric records the amount of time a quarterback takes from snap to throw. We average out the quarterback’s time to throw, time to attempt a pass, time until he’s sacked and time until a quarterback scrambles. On all passing attempts, we bucket them into quick passes (passes thrown within 2.5 seconds or less of the snap) or longer-developing passes (passes thrown at least 2.6 seconds after the snap). Each type of pass records it’s own totals of attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, interceptions and passer ratings showcasing which quarterbacks utilize a quick delivery best and those who are better than others letting his receivers develop their routes downfield. https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pff-signature-statistics-a-glossary