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Kayoh

Pure Football
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  1. Like
    Kayoh reacted to g-dawg in Disregard Joe Burrow; Any NFL Team NOT throwing the bank at Joe Brady this offseason isn't trying to win.   
    Joe Brady definitely should be looked at.   He is a great offensive mind.
  2. Like
    Kayoh reacted to ShmevinShmarris in The fans deserve the one thing that has been denied to them ever since 28-3   
    Shamelessly bumping your post. 🗑 
  3. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from Ergo Proxy in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    meanwhile, no team expanded their analytics division last year more than the Ravens. I guess that worked out pretty OK for them too. 🙄
  4. Thanks
    Kayoh got a reaction from Ergo Proxy in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    Every time I think we as a community are past the old "run x times a game and you win" and "run to set up play action" tropes, I come back to see replies like the ones in here and lose my faith all over again.
    The teams that make the playoffs are more likely to be teams that run a lot not because running gets you to the playoffs, but because winning does, and when a team is really good, they tend to run a lot more in the 2nd half to kill the clock and secure a win. Most of the time these teams are getting leads by passing, and then just sitting on the ball and not letting the other team get enough possessions to come back.
    There are multiple articles regarding play action and every single study I've ever seen has basically found that running the ball doesn't make play action work better, and that NFL coaches haven't used play action enough for it to see diminishing returns yet.
    Also, the truth about why teams who run a lot win has been getting written about for decades.
    https://thepowerrank.com/2018/09/24/the-surprising-truth-about-passing-and-rushing-in-the-nfl/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/
    https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1898897
    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/establishment-clause
    @Vandy @Geneaut @FalconsIn2012 @athell
  5. Like
  6. Like
    Kayoh reacted to Rings in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    Last four Super Bowl winners averaged 14th, almost league average, in rushing DVOA, while the losing team averaged 6th.  Winning team averaged 4th in passing DVOA, as did the losing team.
    The BEST super bowl champion was 9th in rushing, the WORST champion was 6th in passing.
    SB Rushing DVOA Rank
    2019: Chiefs (14th) beat SF (12th)
    2018: Pats (9th) beat the Rams (1st)
    2017: Eagles (15th) beat the Pats (4th)
    2016: Pats (16th) beat Falcons (6th)
    SB Passing DVOA Rank
    2019: 2nd over 8th
    2018: 4th over 5th
    2017: 6th over 1st
    2016: 2nd over 1st
    I agree that running is important, but it isn’t as important as it once was, and you can be average in rushing and still win a ring, you can’t be average in passing and win one anymore.
  7. Like
    Kayoh reacted to Rings in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    His quote was “if you can’t run the ball”, so to me that is effectiveness.  Now if his quote was “if you don’t run the ball”, then your points line up.  Unwilling and unable are very different...Unfortunately for us, Dirk is known for both.
  8. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from OrthoPTSD in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    Every time I think we as a community are past the old "run x times a game and you win" and "run to set up play action" tropes, I come back to see replies like the ones in here and lose my faith all over again.
    The teams that make the playoffs are more likely to be teams that run a lot not because running gets you to the playoffs, but because winning does, and when a team is really good, they tend to run a lot more in the 2nd half to kill the clock and secure a win. Most of the time these teams are getting leads by passing, and then just sitting on the ball and not letting the other team get enough possessions to come back.
    There are multiple articles regarding play action and every single study I've ever seen has basically found that running the ball doesn't make play action work better, and that NFL coaches haven't used play action enough for it to see diminishing returns yet.
    Also, the truth about why teams who run a lot win has been getting written about for decades.
    https://thepowerrank.com/2018/09/24/the-surprising-truth-about-passing-and-rushing-in-the-nfl/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/
    https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1898897
    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/establishment-clause
    @Vandy @Geneaut @FalconsIn2012 @athell
  9. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from Drew4719 in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    meanwhile, no team expanded their analytics division last year more than the Ravens. I guess that worked out pretty OK for them too. 🙄
  10. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from Vandy in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    meanwhile, no team expanded their analytics division last year more than the Ravens. I guess that worked out pretty OK for them too. 🙄
  11. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from Rings in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    meanwhile, no team expanded their analytics division last year more than the Ravens. I guess that worked out pretty OK for them too. 🙄
  12. Haha
    Kayoh got a reaction from ya_boi_j in Matilda Ryan. Not for the insecure.   
    it's odd to me that Matt Ryan as a woman could pass for Kristen Wiig
  13. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from ya_boi_j in Matilda Ryan. Not for the insecure.   
    Danielle Jones tho đź‘€
  14. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from athell in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    Every time I think we as a community are past the old "run x times a game and you win" and "run to set up play action" tropes, I come back to see replies like the ones in here and lose my faith all over again.
    The teams that make the playoffs are more likely to be teams that run a lot not because running gets you to the playoffs, but because winning does, and when a team is really good, they tend to run a lot more in the 2nd half to kill the clock and secure a win. Most of the time these teams are getting leads by passing, and then just sitting on the ball and not letting the other team get enough possessions to come back.
    There are multiple articles regarding play action and every single study I've ever seen has basically found that running the ball doesn't make play action work better, and that NFL coaches haven't used play action enough for it to see diminishing returns yet.
    Also, the truth about why teams who run a lot win has been getting written about for decades.
    https://thepowerrank.com/2018/09/24/the-surprising-truth-about-passing-and-rushing-in-the-nfl/
    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/you-called-a-run-on-first-down-youre-already-screwed/
    https://www.thescore.com/nfl/news/1898897
    https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2003/establishment-clause
    @Vandy @Geneaut @FalconsIn2012 @athell
  15. Like
    Kayoh reacted to athell in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    I'm not sure that is his point tho, or the point of the thread tbh.  Establishing the run and being a productive running team are not one in the same.
    Establishing the run lends itself to attempts.  Carries.
    Being productive means you actually net good results when you do run.
    I believe @Rings is saying if you cannot be productive, don't try to establish because those are wasted downs that could have been spent with more productive plays.
    There is also the very obvious elephant in this room when discussing records in that usually when you run a lot, you are ahead.  When you pass a lot you are behind.  This was covered in a different thread.  THIS thread is directly referencing the cliche that defenses tire down in the 2nd half which makes running easier which apparently is not true.
  16. Like
  17. Like
    Kayoh reacted to Rings in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    Establishing the run is one of the biggest farces in the game.  Keeping the defense honest and on their heels and not knowing what is coming at them is way more important, and if that means running when the box is light, then do it all day.  But don’t run just to run if the odds and defensive front is stacked against you.  A handful of OCs are creative enough to use misdirection and make multiple plays look the same pre snap to throw teams off to counter that, but we don’t have that luxury.
  18. Like
    Kayoh reacted to AustFalcon in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    It is "Expected points added"
    Basically it is a measure of how much better the play did than would be expected at that point in time (based on down, distance, field position etc). So if you looked at average yards per rush, I think the graph would look more like you would expect.
  19. Like
    Kayoh reacted to PokerSteve in Running the ball in the 1st half does not make 2nd half rushes more likely to be valuable in a significant way.   
    Seems counter-intuitive, but I guess while you're busy wearing the D down with your run game, it's also wearing out your OL and your lead RB, so no advantage is gained. Another cherished myth goes right down the toilet.. 

  20. Like
  21. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from falcons007 in If you are “dumb” and you hate Matt Ryan, don’t come in here.   
    more along the lines of, I'm a stats/analytics nerd, and I already had a spreadsheet that I made earlier this year ranking QBs going into 2020 and distinctly remembered Brees being higher than Ryan, and just wanted to correct what I perceived to be a mistake. 👍🏻
  22. Like
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  24. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from ATLskinjob in Matt Ryan Says Current Falcons Offense 'Right Up There' with 2012 Squad   
    I'm just wondering how this offense got better than last year's, considering the personnel is entirely the same aside from a slight upgrade at RB and a legitimate downgrade at TE. Also going to have to be a full season without Sanu which could be a problem if somebody else doesn't step up, and no I'm not talking about Russell Gage.
  25. Like
    Kayoh got a reaction from Drew4719 in Matt Ryan Says Current Falcons Offense 'Right Up There' with 2012 Squad   
    Player execution only trumps coaching when coaching isn't good enough to overcome player execution being anything other than perfect.
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