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Everything posted by Lucky_Tom

  1. This chart doesn't include 2 games in which Julio didn't even play, both 30-pt blowout wins
  2. If Hage and Jarrett keep like they have been, this game could get ugly. I'm also looking for a big time Beasley showing after 2 games of containing and spying mobile QBs. 2 sacks and a FF sound about right
  3. See, I kind of look at it the other way around. Sure, they will try and keep us off the field, and they've been good at doing that so far this season. As you mentioned, they are number 1 in the league in TOP. Well, guess who's number 2? It's not like the other teams we played didn't try and keep us off the field, they just couldn't do it. I don't think Washington's defense is that much better than any that we've played so far. They may be better at stopping the run, but as long as we are able to just keep play action viable, we should be able to score. Even if Julio is not 100% (or possibly out completely). This team can beat you so many ways. Washington's only chance is to keep it low scoring and win TOP, but the Falcons are equipped just fine for that time of game. They just also have the ability to get a few quick scores and essentially end it. Put that offense in a hole and they are in big trouble.
  4. 3 carries did that. The first three carries of the game went for 85 yards. The next 18 went for 42 (2.33 YPC).
  5. I understand this fear. However, that 4.4 avg. is intensely skewed by the first 3 runs of the game in Dallas that went for 85 yards. Outside of those three runs, we are allowing 3.5 YPC (which would be fourth in the league). I know you can't take those runs away, but if you're trying to gauge how well our run d is likely to perform against Washington, I would guess that they are more likely to perform like the 3.5 YPC team that they have been for 96% of their opponents carries than the 4.4 YPC team they have been on 100%.
  6. I started this reply ready to poo-poo those numbers a bit, pointing out that Julio hasn't had those twilight years yet like Jerry Rice or Tim Brown to bring down his averages. While that still holds true, digging into it a bit more it became clear to me that most of the greats had not really come close to peaking at this point (52 games) into their careers. Below are the per game averages of 7 of the top receivers in the modern era as well as the GOAT, Jerry Rice, through 52 games in their careers. I have come away even more impressed with Julio: Player YPG RPG Julio Jones 91.73 6.00 Randy Moss 84.73 4.63 Jerry Rice 82.98 4.48 A.J. Green 81.04 5.44 Larry Fitzgerald 72.63 5.31 Calvin Johnson 69.40 4.44 Dez Bryant 68.77 4.83 Andre Johnson 66.83 5.08 Antonio Brown 66.83 5.08
  7. PFF no longer provides its premium stats to new users, even paying ones. So the clowns are not necessarily cheap, but late to the game. I, for one, greatly appreciate the posts.
  8. I agree, and I would hope that got factored into his grade. I still say that even if his dumpoffs are the greatest in the league, they are still not as impressive as a great throw down-field. I saw at one point during the game that something like 27 of 43 pass attempts for Rodgers in weeks 1-2 travelled less than 5 yards. Maybe this is just the GB offense minus Jordy Nelson. Take advantage of that quick twitch you mentioned and Randall Cobb's amazing ability after the catch. Can't say I blame them, and it's certainly working so far.
  9. They're not looking at the stat line, they're looking at each of those 35 pass attempts and determining whether or not he did anything special to warrant a positive grade on that thrown. I agree that this grade is surprising because, with a line like that, you would expect a few really great throws and not too many bad ones. Still, is it that strange of an idea that a QB's stat line can look a lot better than it really was due to the play of his WR's or defenders dropping INTs? It's taken as a given that a good o-line can make an RB look a lot better than he is, or that a great QB can make a WR look better (like Rodgers does in most games). In this game, according to PFF, the other players on the field made Rodgers look better than he performed.
  10. I'm not defending or attacking PFF, and it is surprising that overall his grade was negative on a 333 yd, 5 TD night. That said, he wasn't graded negatively because the receivers did all the work, he just wasn't graded particularly positively on those plays. Add in some apparently very bad throws and you get an overall negative score. Looking at an extreme example, let's say it's the first play of the game after a touchback to open. So, 0-0 score with 15:00 remaining in the 1st quarter, 1st and 10 from the 20. QB A takes a snap and immediately dumps it off to a RB who takes it 80 yeards to the house. QB B takes a five step drop and drops a strike 30 yards down the field while getting flattened by a defensive lineman. I would argue that it doesn't really matter whether or not QB B's receiver scores, his was still the more impressive play. What's odd is that in a 333 yd, 5 TD night, you would expect a few of those QB B type of plays, bringing up the rating. At least according to PFF, that was not the case. I didn't watch enough of the game to form my own opinion, but I did see a lot of quick throws near the line of scrimmage with guys breaking tackles and getting a lot of YAC.
  11. Worrilow, yes. He was the worst LB in the NFL by far last week (-8.1), next lowest was one of the Cowboys at -3.9. I don't know Durant's grade, but DLed's report said that it was positive. Beasley was the 2nd worst defender, again according to DLed.
  12. Meh. The East has four teams with big media following and a ton of history, but since 2008 they have had one first round bye (in 2008 and none since) and two wildcards (2008 and 2009 and none since). This has been a decidedly mediocre division for the better part of a decade.
  13. I know this was a secondary point of the OP, but taking a closer look at the NFC South: In the six years from 2008-2013, The NFC South has had four 13 win teams, three 1-seeds, two 2-seeds, and 4 wild card teams.
  14. I think 10-6 might, but it will be close. And I totally agree about the NFCS being one of the better divisions in football over the past 5-10 years. Carolina's schedule gets a lot more difficult after their week 5 bye. They're at TB next week and could very well be 4-0, but then they've got Seattle, Philly, Indy, and Green Bay in weeks 6-10. Heck, at Tennessee week 11 doesn't look like a gimme either. weeks 12-16 are brutal too: Dallas, New Orleans, Atlanta x 2, and New York with 4 of 5 on the road. Personally, I think that they are a 9-7 team at the end of the year.
  15. "whether it is Freeman or backup Antone Smith" Well done there.
  16. Not sure, but seeing as you are making stuff up in the same sentance as your question about making stuff up, maybe you know?
  17. They took shots last week with a less gelled oline against a better front 7. Something about the gmen just seems to bring out this infuriating offense.
  18. Yeah, this looks like a slightly more effective, but very similar version of the Mularkey game plan in 2011.
  19. Bartu was inactive last week. I'm pretty sure he's active this week with Goodman being out, so maybe he will. I don't recall seeing Bradford anywhere but ILB, so I don't see him taking KB's spot. I think we'lol have to wait for Reed to come back and then possibly upgrade the spot in the offseason.
  20. You're absolutely right that the league has been underhanded and two-faced with the whole player safety thing. I just can't bring myself from there to "let's scrap the whole thing and let everything go". Could/should the league do more on player safety (especially with respect to concussions)? Absolutely. Does the fact that they don't mean that they shouldn't follow through with the systems that they do have around fines and suspensions? Not in my view.
  21. Exactly. Some things are more important than wins and losses.
  22. It may very well be 100% performance related. I mean, if I had to pick the better WR based on what I saw in preseason, it would be Williams. However, as was noted last week, if we are looking for a different reason it could be the fact that Hester is out and Williams needs to backup Weems on returns.
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