Jump to content


Forum Members
  • Posts

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by maxatlanta

  1. TF has a distinct advantage because the team he inherits has been hamstrung by poor coaching. That can be fixed with just one hire. If you have 2 of the following 3 things you can be a perennial playoff team: Probowl QB Great Head Coach A top defense It's a lot harder to find a probowl qb, or build a top defense.
  2. Im with you. I think Ryan wasn't put in position to succeed under Koetter and Quinn. He is still capable of dominance if given a run game and average protection. People forget he has the 3rd highest passer rating ALL time in the playoffs. That stat includes his rookie year(when AZ was allowed to jump the snap all game)... and our pitiful showing vs NYG when our OL was completely dysfunctional. And his greatest performances came on the biggest stages... against a dominant SF defense, and then in the Superbowl. Our schedule next season is weak. We are a starting RB and LG away from being dominant on offense(with a competent OC). Car and Nola look like they will not be ready for prime time. Ryan and Julio are still great players and they can't be traded. None of these things suggests we should be starting a rebuild right now. In fact, we appear to have a very legit shot at a winning record and tournament entry.
  3. Starting QB is not a need for us. There is still a good reason to take one at 4 though... you are convinced he is going to be a face of the franchise star. Outside of having that incredible conviction, it makes absolutely no sense to use the #4 pick on a player to be your back up qb. A team with a question mark at the position has no choice really but to gamble high picks until they land one. We have at least two years, maybe more. Making decisions based on FOMO is a bad idea. Obviously passing on Trevor Lawrence would be a bonehead move for any team. But the idea that every team with a chance to land a top 3 qb in the draft can't afford to miss the chance is redonkulous. Here's a list of qbs(mistakes) taken top 5 in the last decade, and where they were picked... Winston (1) Bradford (1) Trubisky (2) Marriotta (2) RG3 (2) Bortles (3) Darnold (3) Sanchez (5) ....... Here's the ones that worked out taken in the first round over the last decade... Stafford (1) Newton(1) Goff (1) Mayfield (1) Wentz?(2) Maholmes (10) Watson (12) If your picking 1st overall, then you hit 2 out of 3 times. Any slots after that and the odds are less than 50/50 of getting a face of the franchise. FOMO makes people take risks they shouldn't. We can take fliers with less valuable picks. But taking a flier just because we may not pick this high again is classic fear based decision making.
  4. Anyone can see that a dominant run game would go a long way towards fixing this team. It improves the offense and reduces the amount of time the defense is on the field. There are 2 OL(Slater, Sewell) available near the top of the draft that will improve our run game, or potentially make it dominant(anyone remember Steve Hutchison?). We are fortunate that we may be in position to get the type of trade package reserved for top QBs and still land one of these guys. If we take a QB it better be because they think he's a very very special talent. Our window is still open. Also, since I haven't seen it posted here.. The Saints offense thrived for many years with elite interior OL. Fontenot was there and no doubt appreciates this type of approach. It makes too much sense. I think we are posturing about drafting a qb because it will result in greater demand for the #4 pick. Teams like DET(#7), CAR(#8), and SF(#12) need to believe that they can't stay put and get their franchise qb.
  5. Great RBs, that are ready to contribute right away, can be had in the middle rounds of the draft. Every year. Also, RBs best years are usually their first contract, and many begin to fall apart on their second contract. So investing high picks or dollars in the position is generally bad strategy. Unfortunately, we have an OC who throws the ball too much. No matter how good Ryan, Julio, Ridley, and the rest of our offense is... We will not succeed if the defense knows what's coming. And our defense will not succeed if we are constantly losing the time of possession battle. Give Koetter a RB that we invested a high pick or $ in, one that he wants, that demands to be a big part of the game plan. It will make every player on our defense better if they aren't on the field all game. It will make every player on the OL better if their man doesn't know what's coming. It will make our WR better if the safeties have to respect our run game. This is not about Swift, Ingram, specifically. It's about giving our OC someone that gets him to buy into running the ball. Something necessary if we want to compete with the best. I know in theory Quinn could just demand it of him, but didn't he do that last year?
  6. It's all about the positions. We seem to be good at finding decent RB, TE, and LB in the middle rounds. We will probably see that continue, with our money and top picks going towards de/cb.
  7. Julio will not show up when he has no guarantees and an 11mil salary.
  8. I hate the way Julio's deal is structured. If he declines then we have locked in a massive overpay, but if he maintains we have set up another hold out situation. Worst of both worlds. His last 2 years are around 11mil in salary. Anyone think he will play for that if he is still elite?
  9. Players that get away with PI regularly deserve a bit more credit than most understand. The same goes for offensive holding. The Patriots are the poster child for this. And they absolutely do get preferential treatment. But what is left unsaid is that they do an incredible job of scouting the refs and taking advantage the refs individual tendencies.
  10. Blank and TD have a track record of rewarding home grown talent with generous contracts. JJ, MR, Free, Roddy, Jake... They paid top dollar based on those players production and the market at the time of signing. The issue isn't the Falcons. GJ wants to be paid like the double digits sack DTs. But he's never matched their production. I think we'll tag him again next year. Debo on the other hand has established himself as deserving of top of the league money for his position. He should get an extension before GJ.
  11. True... but seriously, Brees, Brady, Manning... They wouldn't have been able to play that long getting hit like Matt last year.
  12. At our core we ride or die with our aging $30mil QB. It is smart to protect him. Our OL was the unit most undermanned. OTs cost huge money. And we already have a really good center. Take from this what you want to.
  13. Sometimes a lesser player(s) brings more value to your team than a guy that's straight up better overall. Half of the equation is about who you're replacing. A good WR & QB could not have improved our team as much as a competent RG and RT could. I made a long post on this in the Peter King thread. TLDR: There was no better way to improve the team overall than fixing the OL, even if it meant sacrificing some value with our picks and spending.
  14. Here's what we need to understand, and some have already hinted at it indirectly- We changed our MO this offseason and for the right BIG PICTURE reasons. Our offense was 3 OL short(and maybe a RB) of having no starting or depth weak links. We had a chance to field a top 3, and complete offense, including depth. IMO The final piece on one side of the ball has extra value above and beyond the individual player's production. It eliminates any obvious way for a team to counter your strengths. "Completing" the offense could literally help our defense(in terms of ppg allowed, sacks, turnovers, overall run defense) as much as a first round DT. The Colts didn't need a great run defense when they were scoring at will and their opponents were playing catch up. Their offense made the opponent one dimensional and that is as valuable as having one more good player on D. Kyle's first season as OC was undone by the lack of a remotely passable Center. Even the drops could have been lessened if the snap and protections were smooth and Ryan was a hair more accurate and on time. For that season, a quality center would have been more valuable to our team than a quality DE. The pass rusher wouldn't have fixed our offense, and would have improved but not transformed our defense. Wen you factor in that we will live and die based on the health of our $150mil qb, this year and in the future... I just believe that for this team a couple starting OL we're more valuable than DL. (And I value DL more than OL in a vacuum that doesn't consider team make up). Last point- Kyle could outsmart opponents and cover up weaknesses on the OL. But he's gone now, and DK needs that OL talent to deliver results.
  15. We have Grady Jarrett for one year at 15mil. Next year we have a team option at around 18mil. I'm not sure what the number would be, but we also have a 3rd year option as well. Apparently each of these years we will have him for less than his FA market value and yet we aren't giving out any gurantees. The kicker is we can franchise and then trade him that 3rd year if it suits us. It's a pretty good deal for the team. Better than commiting more money to him over the same period and also guranteeing it, with no realistic option of trading him due to too much dead money. Maybe not what we all wanted, but not necessarily a bad thing. Especially if he never makes the leap to double digits sacks and/or suffers injury at some point.
  16. Money. It takes two to tango. But everyone has a price. Your logic says Grady was unwilling to sign an extension last year. I say bs. There is a gurantee and AAV that would have gotten it done. The Falcons weren't ready to go there and now it will cost them more. We are in the same boat with Deion Jones now. Financial security and top of the market AAV is what the team must offer to generate that motivation to sign a year earlier. A huge signing bonus today is worth more than a slightly huger but non guranteed one tomorrow. This is why I expect Deion to get done. Because everyone has a price and it's less when they haven't yet achieved security. Don't get me wrong, I feel different about free agents. They know they are getting their security. They know they will be paid well. They are the ones in position to prioritize where they want to be and who they want to play for. Guys still on their first contract do not have other options to lock in that security other than their current team.
  17. Debo isn't filthy rich yet. A record guarantee and top of the market salary is worth leaving a little future theoretical money on the table. He may get more next year if he stays healthy and maintains his level of play, but in the NFL there is no way to guarantee against severe injury. Making a little less overall in order to lock in 50mil guaranteed should be a no brainier for him as long as we are essentially offering current FA money to a guy still on his first contract.
  18. I agree with your logic. But my conclusion isn't that teams should trade up to secure the 6th year(option year, then franchise tag). Instead teams should start paying/extending their players earlier. The Falcons don't like to extend players with multiple years left on their contract. The better you are at drafting/development- the worse off that policy leaves you. If your team prioritizes continuity on the coaching side, then it becomes safer for you to extend players early because there is less chance of your scheme/roles changing. TLDR: Falcons put a greater emphasis than most teams on coaching continuity, drafting, and development. Their policy of not extending players early isn't complimentary to this style of team building. Overpaying a year early is better than overpaying a year or two later!
  19. Beasley will bring a comp pick if another team signs him after next season. Maybe Reed too. It's something to think about if we can get them to stick around at a salary matching their current performance. Draft picks are valuable, even 5th and 6th rounders.
  20. Whenever we have had good Oline play(Ryan era), one of these 3 people was a bigger difference maker than the OL coach: Michael Turner- ran through tackles, kept the defense honest so they couldn't pin their ears back. Made both pass and run blocking look better. Matt Ryan- great presnap reads, quick decision making, audibles us into advantageous play calls. Kyle Shananhan- misdirection, 2te sets, unpredictability... I'm convinced he could take the 5 most avg NFL OL and make them a top 10 unit if he had strong skill position players.
  21. I like the post because it's new info. But as far as I'm concerned position and assistant coaches will be fine if their bosses(HC,OC,DC,ST) know their stuff.
  22. Two thoughts- Smitty's book, which was a post mortem on his tenure as HC here, had a telling description of what he thought did him in. He said it was when they decided to go all in on the present, at the expense of the team building strategy that worked so well for them previously. I hope TD learned from that. It's easy to trade future picks and sign stud vets to deals that are backloaded, ones that will never see the end of their contract and leave dead money on the books. Second, we have 3 open OL spots. They better have a plan. OGs can be found but we need to be right about 2 of them. Good OTs are tough to find and veterans are super expensive. Even using our 1st rounder on an OT leaves us with a 50/50 chance of getting it right- especially if they have to be good starting day one next year.
  23. He isn't worth 12mil based on production. But there's also the idea that the money also buys you the ability to tag, trade, or resign him if he manages to put up a good year. An 8 sack season would make him a valuable commodity.
  24. It really has to happen. I don't see us franchising him, not with Geno and Donald's deals pushing that $ number into the stratosphere. We're going to overpay, with a big gurantee, but that's better than losing him.
  25. Zimmer and Gono are the kind of players we need for the future. With Grady and Matthews getting paid, we'll need to find quality, inexpensive OT/DT in the draft/udfa. I think they all make the team. Positionally, they should all have a leg up on their WR competition for the last roster spots.
  • Create New...