takeitdown

With a moderate team that looks like a 10-6 season. Win Arizona, SF...lose LA, Seattle. Win Jacksonville, TN lose Indy, Texans (could trade Texans w someone) Win both last place finishers. Win both Tampa, split the others. It wouldn't take a ton (2 OL, 2 DL...some decent playcalling) to at least pull of that record.

Largely agreed. It's getting off the field on 3rd downs and turnovers. So basically, it's about tightly contesting everything (at least on 3rd down), and having a pass rush. We don't tightly contest any passes (mostly by design) and it eats us alive. It also gives the D line no time to get home. Add in the D line doesn't do it's job, and it's a mess. I do think additionally we've done a very poor job coaching for turnovers in the secondary. I find it very difficult to believe that all of our DBs only swat at the ball and never turn their heads by coincidence. They pretty much only get INTs if the ball is in front of them/between them and the QB. Turn your head on that deep ball and lots of times you can adjust back and INT it. That changes how the QB thinks about that next deep ball. It's just intensely frustrating.

I don't think we'll have a top defense, and I don't think the 2016 offense is coming back. But this offense with decent line play, and the defense getting off the field at all should be a 30ppg offense. That's enough to cover over a mediocre defense that is opportunistic. It's not enough to cover a gaping wound of a defense. I'm not saying it will all be swell next year. I'm saying it's not a desperate impossible deal. Get 2 good guards who can create a pocket and the offense is top 5. Get a couple DL who can get to the QB (and play tighter coverage) and your defense is no longer horrible. That's still 4 good players you need to get, which isn't easy. And I'm definitely down on how much draft capital we've spent on defense for this little return. Quinn after 4 years has certainly not produced a consistent top 10 defense like I expected. I just think if he'll pay attention to what he hasn't gotten right, the D can be a lot better next year...you know, average.

Here's where I think/hope you're wrong. The 2019 Falcons won't have a top defense...that's almost certain. But with two good OG, they could be a top 5 offense that can carry the defense. And with two good DL...maybe that'll make the difference on D from abysmal to above average. The D just sort of makes no sense. We've spent almost all our draft capital there the last several years, have budding stars, and keep being horrible. We're really going to have to get a better coordinator and probably scheme.

Pretty much agreed. Since I think interior OL is the single most important position group behind QB, it's bee frustrating watching Ryan never have a pocket. I'd include DE if he's a sizable guy (classic 6'4 270 DE). But yeah, if the draft went DL, OL, DL, OL...it woudn't hurt my feelings. Look for a late round gem at TE or WR or LB if you want, but spend your capital on the lines. I'd rather be able to get one DL and one OL in FA, then get 3 at the beginning of the draft. Give us 5 guys who ought to be starters on the DL/OL. Then you can do what you want with the other picks.

If the Falcons can get two impact interior OL and DL in free agency, they can be very competitive. (Could also use a LB, corner, and speed TE, RB). But it's very hard to get 4 legit linemen in and offseason, so we'll see. I really think with improved guard play our offense can still be top 5, and without it, they'll never be able to have a consistent game. Our defense, with two good DL, will be able to speed up QBs decisions, and that changes how the entire game works. The defense will still have to adjust and play tighter coverages, but the base will at least be there.

An easy way to combine the two without getting into DVOA is just to look a yards and points per possession and yards per play. Last year's defense wasn't top 10 as raw stats would show, but closer to somewhere between 15 and 20. This year's is just atrocious.

His most likely times would be next year or the year after. Need to make a push while Ryan's still in his prime, before Julio slows down, and before we have to replace the entire OL. If everyone was healthy...2 good OL, 2 good DL and a TE would make us a 12-4 type team (assuming people are trying.)

Yeah, they've been miserable. Problem is, we need 2 penetrating DL, and two interior OL. I'd be tempted to go DT/DE/OG with the first 3 in some order. When Ryan has time, he'll chop you up. When our DL makes the other QB not have time, we do well. Let's focus on those as simplistic as it sounds.

Best way to make a rookie or backup QB look good is to provide no pressure. We're not making him uncomfortable at all.

True. Get some more help on the DL in the offseason (DT and pass rusher) and we may have some backers to do some work.

Offense Mike Kenn...we really need OL help and he was a great OT who could play OG if needed. Defense...Abraham or Kerney (or Coleman). The middle of our defense needs too many players back there (and we don't have a ton of playmaking MLB or safety options from our past) so I'd just amp up the pass rush. Takk Coleman Grady Beasley for pass rush, or Takk Grady x Abe/Kerney would change the defense a lot.

This is all correct. He's fundamentally a speed (not quickness, not box out) receiver, and they tend to struggle in the red zone. He's good at each thing, but his elite skill is speed coupled with not having major deficits in other areas (being slow in and out of routes, being 180 lbs, etc.)

Part of it was ineffectiveness when they targeted him. Last year he was targeted something like 27 times in the RZ and caught 2. Those stats may not be exact, but it was something absurd like that.

Depends on if you mean TDs overall, or red zone TDs. Julio should have 4 long TDs every year, and that's a specialty. But his weaknesses are quick separation, and more so boxing out/adjusting/high pointing and those are how big receivers win in the red zone. Hopkins wins a lot that way. It's how Fitz won, Calvin, etc. But Julio has legit reasons he's not a red zone scoring machine...most other top WRs get doubled and still get theirs. I mostly don't care. If someone gets us down to the red zone, and someone else scores...fine.