jidady

Dansby's coming off a wrist injury. Those tend to drain hitters of their bat speed.

Hopefully ones we already have in our system.

The clubhouse pretty famously clapped at the announcement that he'd been traded. We've later learned that he's a homophobe that umpires despise. That's a guy nobody misses.

Whoa. What did I miss over the last few hundred boards?

His kid will be terrifying after he breaks his wrists. (That's seriously awesome.)

I'm sure that teams have examples of both. Edgar Renteria for Jurrjens and Gorkys looked awful on paper, Then, JJ averaged 4 WAR for us over four seasons. Meanwhile, Edgar had a fairly miserable year with the Tigers. So, it worked both ways for us just with Edgar. We gave up top 10 prospect for a proven hitter, and the veteran was the right call. Then, we gave up the same guy for two kids, and one of them worked out beautifully. While K26 and I talk about the nuances of this a lot, I think we line up on the underlying philosophy, which is that each situation should be judged on its own merits. Also, you have to accept that some of them won't work out. Frank Wren swung for the fences with prospects. He drafted a few guys who will get at least some votes for the Hall of Fame. His hit/miss ratio was a trainwreck overall, though. Do we isolate his draft picks to WAR or should we include trade value prior to MLB careers, too? He's aces in WAR, but we were super-thin with our minor league rosters.

That was back when I talked to scouts a lot, and I can assure you that they had stars in their eyes for Nieves. Same with Davies. Meanwhile, nobody ever seemed to warm to Chuck James, which seemed maddening to me as a numbers guy. What I learned from his situation is that knowing the person also matters in talent evaluations. Oddly, folks were conflicted about Wainwright, whom everyone seemed to sour on during exactly the wrong year. I guess he's the cautionary tale for the Albies situation. Struggling when you're close to the majors can lead to a lack of faith at exactly the wrong time. James is always going to be the strangest player to me. If you didn't know, he had an accident wherein he broke both of his wrists. He had better movement after the recovery. That's one of those things that will never make sense to me. I get situations like Alfonseca where he got extra movement due to having a sixth finger. That has a logic to it. What happened with James is just a mystery about why it made him better.

Yeah, it's exactly what I stated could happen. We may have to take him at #19 if we want him. Meanwhile, Brunson will be there at the end of the first or start of the second. Upside always beats out proven performance in the NBA.

Nick Markakis for MVP!

Actually, this is a nitpick, but back when the Greenevill Braves won 100 games, Nieves was supposed to be the second best prospect after Chipper. I always idly wondered whether that's why the two of them got into that fight. I always preferred Javy, who could crush breaking stuff, but there's a reason why Nieves anchored the McGriff trade. Donnie Elliott was supposed to be good, too, but Nieves was more popular internally than Kelly at the time, and Kelly went #2 overall. To a larger point, I am fascinated by the way that baseball has gotten smarter about valuations.I remember back when we traded Andy Marte for Edgar Renteria, the perception was that the Red Sox had gotten magic beans. Marte was the #9 prospect in the game at the time. Today, that trade would be reported so much differently. In that instance, the veteran was much more valuable than the elite prospect. There's just no right or wrong answer to this stuff.There was a time when Kyle Davies was going to be the next Roy Halladay. His last two years in the minors, he was lights out. In the majors, he was a warm body. I've just been burned so many times that it's made me jaded. It's just too many Edward Salcedos. I've felt burnt out since the aftermath of Frenchy. That was my breaking point.

As you know, I'm first in line to say that I'd trust a Braves scout over any other personnel person due to their decades of excellence. First, it was Paul Snyder, and then it was people who learned under Paul Snyder. That's how we breed a track record of exceptional prospect evaluations. Having said that, the first major prospect from my youth was Brad Komminsk, who was supposed to be better than Dale Murphy. Over the years, I've watched kids like Mike Kelly, Melvin Nieves, AJ Zapp, and Scott Thorman switch from can't miss prospects to guys lucky to make the majors. A player like Wilson Betemit borders on a success story, with 2k at bats in the majors. He was supposed to be the next ARod. It's not that Atlanta did anything wrong with the scouting. Everyone has the same intel. No one can predict what a player will do in terms of maturing or working. And then there's the health factor. I'm jaded on prospect evaluations because 10 years before you and I ever spoke, I did an exhaustive study of the first 10 rounds of 10 drafts. I came to realize that anyone who simply *makes* the majors has beaten long odds. So, the idea that several kids would come up at once and hold their own is all the more remarkable.

I'm going to stick my hand up here. When Albies struggled mightily at AAA, I was fine with our dealing him at the deadline for a proven MLB player. What we're seeing this year is mathematically unlikely. Several different prospects have taken the leap at roughly the same time.

Minter's pitches have got so much bite inside on right-handed hitters. It's kind of incredible.

Yeah, those are the little things that alter the dynamics of an entire game. Bases are loaded, and nobody's out. He throws a ball. It's close, but if we had automated balls and strikes, the count is 2-1. Dansby's in business. Instead, he chases a curveball in the dirt to strike out. At worst, it should be 2-2 right now. A groundball in the wrong place wipes out this inning due to one lousy strike call.

That was a terrific play by McCarthy.