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Andrews_31

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Posts posted by Andrews_31

  1. 12 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

    I wish I could better articulate my point about this, because I am quite clearly failing:

    Nothing about my take on the Exit polling is about what should or should not be Democratic policy moving forward.  

    My take is limited to the validity of the polling.  I think it is irresponsible to rely on the Exit Polling in 2020.  I'm happy to repost my rational and links to support , and to others who share my skepticism.  

    We've gone through this.  I've seen far too many people (Symone Sanders being one that immediately jumps out) repeatedly using what you refer to as the "inaccurate" Edison survey instead of the AP survey that you refer to.  I didn''t realize there was a difference!  The Edison survey clearly shows that the dems have major problems, even with their base (black people), that they need to fix NOW.  Honestly, 90% of the gripes have nothing to do with race!  Ignoring this data, and blaming Trump's increase (although slight) in black's voting for him on rappers is dumb and dangerous!  

  2. Just now, HolyMoses said:

    Any thoughts on the Senate races?  

    Fingers crossed, Warnock and Ossoff both win.  I can't see one winning and the other losing, but it could happen.  The election down there is about pure turnout, and the way dems can do it again down there is with focused messaging tailored to GA.  Some things (national messages) will not fly down there, and southern blacks live their lives (traditionally) more conservatively than their northern and western counterparts.

  3. 7 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

    Well, according to the Exit Polling that everyone is relying on (although a few experts  ARE questioning their validity) black americans ARE "leaving the plantation."

    (I'm still going to love you @Andrews_31)

    Not that they were ever on "the plantation," but I do wish we were more strategic (and transactional) with our votes, and I honestly hope that starts to take place now.  

  4. 2 hours ago, ya_boi_j said:

    Gotta love work. My boss came to me last Friday and said that he wanted me, 2 more dudes and 2 ladies to learn how to run a machine that isn't apart of our org. Why is it that me and the 2 ladies are the only 3 that he keeps rushing and pulling to that machine while the other 2 haven't stepped that way. I mean he will legit tell me to stop what I'm doing. Too funny

    Extra pay?  You know where I am going with this, right?  Dad

  5. 7 hours ago, duckettpleaze said:

    So that’s what this is about?  We stood you up for lunch?

     I really wish I knew what the **** you are talking about with the Fireman story?  The only thing that makes any sense is a guy from my old cycling team hating Democrats because his (white) dad couldn’t get promoted, so this dude couldn’t afford to go to college.  He was a prick. Ring a bell?

    You really have a bad habit of reaching and trying to fill in the blanks.  Seek help.

  6. 58 minutes ago, duckettpleaze said:

    @Leon Troutsky did not curve me.  He actually said I might be right.  Which is what I’m saying too.  You are the one absolutely certain that I’m wrong.  And you are the one being broadly insulting.  
    You are also the one who didn’t know that all the different media sources use the same Edison supplied (actually SOLD...expensively which is also why the media doesn’t question it)

    I’m not going to get into the JDave stuff because that is personal.  
    No idea why you would go there.  
    You will have to remind me what the affirmative action fireman thing was

     

     

     

    Soooooooooooo, you "might" be right...............but I'm dead asss wrong, gotcha! :angry: But, get your ducks in a row, YOU are the dummy that wrote Trump did not get any additional votes from black voters in 2020, which is dead asss wrong, and I told you that was not true.........and you got mad!  But I guess ALL of the people on television are wrong too because they don't cite your source, but yet they were right about the vote that was still outstanding, hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm?

    As for the black fireman and affirmative action story, that was several years ago, and CLEARLY you had issues going on in the background, because you ****** that story up so badly I asked you then were you drunk or high.

    Also, let me leave you with this.  Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay back in the day when you guys were buddy buddies (before y'all wrecked bikes and fell out), Snake invited me to lunch at Fellini's with you guys (you, Snake, Ramen, Dave), I was going to show up too, but you guys canceled at the last minute.  😉

  7. 13 minutes ago, duckettpleaze said:

    Arrogance is telling me I’m wrong without explaining why you think I’m wrong.  If I was wrong, Trout would be able to tell me.  

    He could not.  He said one poll had no change and the exit polling showed there was change.  
    I explained why the exit polling was more likely to be wrong. 
    And folks who do this for a living agree with me.  Arrogance is assuming you know more than them.  
    You are not behaving like your self. 
    You are not behaving like an engineer.  (What kind of engineer relies on data without understanding the methodology (or accuracy) of how the data was gathered.) 

    You are behaving like an ***.  
    I’m always a prick. But you usually keep it together pretty well.  What’s up?

    Dude, I'm actually holding back on lighting your asss up on here.  You keep trying to involve Trout in your ********, and Trout curved you too, but you can't leave it alone.  Bottom line, you just want whatever data YOU use to be THE data.  As for holding it together, are you high?  You are the one person on this site that the actual people that know you think you are a jackass!  I guess you forgot the last time on this site when you traded in your yarmulke for a klan hood with that black  fireman and affirmative action story.  To **** with you!

  8. 2 hours ago, duckettpleaze said:

    I’m serious. I don’t understand the hostility coming from you. I thought we were cool.

    Suddenly, you are calling me arrogant and a clown.  
    all I am doing here is looking at something differently. Original thought should not be responded to with this kind of hostility.  I know I am moderate, but I don’t have a policy bias here. At least I hope not.

    Please have a look at this. I am not bull****ting about everybody relying on the Edison data. I provided a link and trout confirmed.  Guess what, I had no idea that was the case until I did the research myself a week or so ago.  

    Also, trout confirmed that different polling indicated that there has not been a shift. 
     

    i’m not trying to say the Democrats should do something different or not. I’m not saying that black folks don’t have a legitimate gripe that Democrats have taken their vote for Granted. 
    All I am saying is that the historically unusual circumstances of this election presented some major challenges for properly weighted exit polling and since everyone relies on the same data,  people should not blindly rely on that data to draw conclusions.

    i’m willing to do the research if do you think it would be valid: theory: a shift in voting trends for African-Americans could Be determined by looking at the 10 most populous (by percentage) black counties in the country from various regions.   Minimum population 100,000. 
    Of course more people voted in 2020, but you would expect to see, as a percentage, those counties moving towards Trump by least some incremental amount. Fair?

    Had to step out.  Yes, you are arrogant.  Your entire argument(?) is centered around "the source I cite is right, everyone else is wrong" which is a patently stupid argument from the jump, and your boudreaux said in a nice asss way that he didn't know for sure which one was correct.  You made this about Edison versus everyone else, I didn't!  Plus, you talk about research, but why would I trust ANY of these pollsters after they got egg on their faces two elections straight?  Their entire industry is suspect at best, fraudulent at worst!  I don't need for you to do any research for me, you guys are pretty good at acting on ****** up data on your own!  Bottom line, humble yourselves. open your ears, dems got a problem brewing!

  9. Just now, duckettpleaze said:

    I know you’re a smart guy. David versus a smart guy too. Lots of really smart people are getting this completely wrong. And it’s certainly possible that I’m the one getting completely wrong. In fact, considering I’m a ******* moron, the smart money would probably be on you and the other smart people out there.

    but I sure as **** no difference between national and regional. My point is that DeKalb is a predominantly black county.  If there was a nationwide trend of Black people turning to Trump, there’s no reason why DeKalb county would not reflect that trend. Come on. Am I really so stupid when I post around here that you think I would be missing something like that?

    No, but you're arrogant.  Do me a favor, eat a ****, and stop focusing on "what you "think" minorities mean when they vote, you're not ******* listening anyway, and ask the 55% of the white women you marry why they vote the way they do? Ask Joe freakin' Manchin why he publicly stated the dems are ****** when it comes to him?  Leave us alone, and as your fellow jewish person, Andy Cohen says, "watch what happens next!"  And before you get your drawers in a knot, nothing I've said is anti-semitic!

  10. 23 minutes ago, Serge said:

    I'm just glad the Democrats aren't going to have to think this hard about how they did with minorities against Trump going forward. It's not like they're ever going to need to worry about a Republican presidential candidate that can court minority votes more credibly than Donald Trump.

    Quote me on this Serge, Larry Hogan will turn Maryland, DC, and Virginia RED if he runs in 2024.

  11. 1 minute ago, duckettpleaze said:

    Dude, do your research. Give me some credit. I don’t post pull **** out of my ***. All of those networks rely on the same polling data. All of that data comes from Edison research. Look it up. If they got it wrong, it’s all wrong.

    You and your other clown personna do yours first, you're clueless!  Everybody else is wrong but you!

  12. 11 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

    Tf course, If that is true, you could go to DeKalb county Georgia, compare data from 2016 and 2020 and find out that, as a percentage, Trump did better this time, right?

    Go ahead and check.  I'll wait right here.

    Y'all see this dumb **** right here?  We're talking nationally, he's talking about Dekalb County, Georgia!  Also, be forewarned, if Ossoff and Warnock both lose, they've already got their scapegoat ready!

  13. 35 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

    @Leon Troutsky A little help?

    OK . . . You understand how they do polling, right?  You get a nice big sample, but you make sure that sample is a valid cross section of America.  You need a certain percentage of women, Blacks, Latino's College Grads, Non college grads etc . . . 

    This year, Edison Research did exit polling at the polls on election day, plus they made calls to catch folks who voted early.  

    So lets take a 1000 person survey

    And lets ONLY talk about Black Males.

    Lets say you need 100 Black males for a valid survey.

    Historically Republicans did more mail in ballots than Democrats.  But lets say Edison knew that this year would be different so they figured Republcans and Dems would vote differently this time.  Lets say it would be historically different:  60% of dems voted early and only 40% voted on election day.

    So lets assume that 90 of our Black males voted for Biden and 10 voted for Trump.

    If Edison got it right:  36 voted for Biden on Election Day and 54 voted early.  And 6 voted for Trump on election Day and 4 voted Early.

    BUT what if they got it wrong.  What if it 80% of Democrats voted early and 20% percent voted on election day.  And the opposite for Republcans.

    You still have a total of 42 Black men voting on election day.  But instead of those 42 being 60/40 R/D.  They are 80/20 R/D

    Of the total of 10 Black man in the 100 person sample, 8 voted on election day.  And of the 90 Black men who voted Biden, 18 voted on election day.

    Suddenly, it looks like 331/3 Black men voted for Trump.  

    But not really, because they weighted it 60-40.  

    OK . .  I had to take a call and now I've confused myself.

    The point is, there is no evidence Edison factored in that 1) Trump wanted Republicans to vote on election day and 2) Republicans were less concerned about Covid such that the number of Republicans voting on election was way beyond anything they considered.

    Therefore, the polling was skewed such that minorities APPEARED to vote for Trump in larger numbers.

     

     

    And you wrote all of that to say nothing, and to call ALL of the data that is out there (mind you, they've repeatedly covered it on MSNBC, CNN, ****, I don't watch OAN or FOX, so I can't say what they are reporting.  Furthermore, you're talking to a guy with  a degree in Mechanical Engineering, an MBA from Emory, a business owner, and I run another person's multi-MILLION dollar company for them in D.C., so cut the condescension  and patronization crap, I clearly understand the what is being reported, and it's true!

     

    Also, riddle me this batman, why the **** does the Democratic party (and the GOP) care more about AIPAC and what the **** they think than every black person in the USA that votes?  Billions of dollars a year sent to prop up Israel, but when it comes to black people in the USA, we get nothing but empty promises!  Black people are TIRED of their votes being used to benefit everyone but them.  There is nothing to decipher, Trump getting a larger share of black men and women votes is that 18 and 9 percent telling you pinheads there is a problem!

  14. 10 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

    WHERE???  Where should I look it up?

    I am NOT being a smart ***.  I really want to know what data you are relying on.  The ONLY data I'm aware of is from Edison Research and no one can tell me why we should rely on their methodology.  I'm happy to go through it again if you want.

    And I'm talking about PhD's in political science.  Journalists.  The people who really work with this stuff, and I think Nate Cohn as well . . . 

    The Exit polling is flat out wrong.

    How are you going to ask me where, and end it with your last sentence? YOU don't want to believe.  Everybody is wrong, I'm (YOU) right, blah, blah, ******* blah!  Trump picked up 8 million more votes than he did in 2016! ****, 55% of white women voted for him in 2020, it was 52% in 2016.  Stand two white women together, one of them voted for Trump! Believe the data is wrong at your own peril, the dems clearly have a problem across all demographics, people like you are what is wrong with the democratic party!  Again, miss me with that horse****, I've never voted for Trump or the GOP, but that can always change!  Get it together dems!

  15. 11 minutes ago, HolyMoses said:

    I"m refuting that Biden did worse with minorities (other than hispanics/cubans in some regions) than Hillary.  I am not being emotional.  I just want to know what you are relying on.

    Did you see me previously posts about why Exit polling is completely unreliable this year?

    Where I DO get emotional is that people are coming up with all this B.S. to explain why Democrats did not do well with MInorities and what they need to do to improve when there is no evidence that there is a problem.

    It's like trying to figure out what a family is going to do to cool down a house that is at 96 degrees when the problem is that someone looked at the thermostat in a mirror.

    And you'd be wrong in your first sentence, plus, with black women voting for Biden at 91%, Black men voting for Biden at 82%,  (we, yes I'm black although I'm a card carrying Creek Indian too) were beaten out by the Navajo Nation at 97%.   Look it up for yourself!  Furthermore, tell the dems to use whatever pollsters Trump used.  He told you several times the polls were wrong and were closer than the media was putting out there.

    When the dems INEVITABLY screw this up, and black people sit out 2022 and 2024, remember that black people (and white people too) have REPEATEDLY told dems them they talk AT people, not to them, and Bubba and Cleetus in the GOP are 100% correct when they say y'all talk too dam much about nothing and know every ******* thing!

  16. 1 minute ago, HolyMoses said:

    "IIRC"?  

    Please don't tell me you are relying on 2020 Exit polling.  I'll rant again.

     

    Refute anything I said and stop getting emotional.  Truth is, arrogant dems ****ting on their base over and over again is why the dems are in trouble right now.  GOP doesn't have to lift a finger, just sit back and watch the dems **** it up.  Furthermore, YOU voted for Trump, I didn't!

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