Alright, we have already established by posters that like to dig up my posts from 1-5 years or more that I am occasionally wrong - maybe even often - LOL. Or I put a bad mock together - which I do sometimes - especially in the years that I did 4-5 in the offseason. Since there is no shortage of mocks on TATF now, I probably won't do another one until a few days before the draft predicting what I believe the Falcons might do - honestly there are too many variables to ever get more than 1-2 picks right in a mock - so they are for entertainment purposes only.
No one knows for sure what Terry Fontenot is thinking so this is all speculation and just take this for entertainment purposes - which is what it really is anyway.
IF the Falcons are entertaining trading the #4 pick and IF those that would entertain trading up to #4 for a QB would give up a lot to do so, I don't believe a trade would occur until the day of the draft. While the Niners gave up a bounty to go to #3 and not knowing for sure who the Jets would take - they have a pretty good feel for it and then have their choice of 3 QBs. There is much more uncertainty which QB the Niners will pick among Fields, Lance or Jones - we have all heard theories on each and, while most are assuming the Niners are taking Mac Jones right now - like many of you - I find it hard to fathom giving up THREE 1st round picks - and more - to draft a QB whose ceiling would appear to be something like a Kirk Cousins-type player. Maybe Mac Jones will be better than this and obviously Mike Shannahan knows more about QBs than any of us - just hard to picture.
IF the Falcons want to trade the pick, they will probably have 1-2 contingency deals in place before the draft starts based on the opposite teams "if our guy is there at #4". Personally, I don't see the Falcons trading out of the Top 10.
Cincinnati - #5 (don't really know why they would trade up unless they wanted Pitts as they don't need a QB and maybe they would give us their 3rd rounder to move up) - not likely to make an offer
Miami - #6 (Dolphins have already made a lot of maneuvers and guessing they would be settled in at #6 - probably taking Pitts or a WR - but would think Pitts would be the target - they might want to jump Cincy to be assured of their non-QB guy)
Detroit - #7 (they might want to move up and take a QB - they aren't committed to Goff - as Daniel Jeremiah said - "that Stafford/Goff trade wasn't straight up - two 1st round picks got on the plane w/ Goff from LA to DET)
Carolina - #8 (guessing they are out of QB derby now after adding Darnold - wouldn't move up for an OT - maybe they would for Pitts? doubtful)
Denver - #9 (obviously they would move up for a QB if they moved - lots of smoke that Broncos aren't moving out and still like Lock - but it is Liar's season now)
Dallas - #10 (is all the "Jerry Jones infatuated w/ Kyle Pitts" stuff true? - it would take a big package for Falcons to move down this far)
What do the Falcons want?
My guess is Fontenot, Smith and scouting department want to use their remaining 15 days to finalize all their thoughts - I doubt Fontenot's mind is made up just yet but I am sure he is getting close to his final strategy. He will probably have "contingent trade down offers" finalized by Tuesday, April 27th - 48 hours prior to the draft. The compensation will be set.
My personal opinion is QUARTERBACK is still in play for the #4 overall pick. I would hazard a guess that Falcons like one of the two that would likely be left in Justin Fields or Trey Lance. Looking at the two players, Lance is just more of a projection with so much less track record. For example, Trey Lance has only thrown 317 passes in his entire college career - at a much lower level of competition. While an exaggeration, it's like a college player playing against high school players - the competition is just so much lower so when you couple that with a small sample size of throws - the risk associated w/ Lance grows exponentially. While I believe Trey Lance is a fine prospect and may be a heckuva NFL QB - if you take him and he busts, we will go back and all these warning signs will lead us to the conclusion - "you should have known better" - hindsight is always 20/20. I like Trey Lance and if Falcons took him - I would be excited about it - just saying, there are warning signs w/ level of competition and w/ the lack of track record - through no fault of his own, he is a one-year wonder.
here is what I think Fontenot could be thinking...
Option#1: Stick at #4, Draft QB Justin Fields-Ohio State - the value of the position and the potential ceiling of the Quarterback makes this a no-brainer to me (as Dalton said in Road House - "opinions vary"). Obviously the Niners would have to pass on Justin Fields for this even to happen. Justin Fields is a stronger and bigger version of Deshaun Watson. I seeothers suggest comps for Fields as Cam Newton but that is a bad comp - YES Justin is big and strong like Cam (but not as big and not as strong) but Justin is a much more accurate passer (68.4% completion rate) and his TD/INT ratio is over 7/1 which is Aaron Rogers territory. I know the "Don't draft a QB" crowd which is the majority of TATF will gnash their teeth and wring their hands of this Option#1 due to Matt Ryan still being a good quarterback and say we have too many other needs (which we do). Falcons are only 100% married to Matt for 2021 and 2022 would be painful to cut/trade Matt but still possible with an increasing cap - both Eagles and Rams moved on from QBs w/ large dead cap. TF and AS can see how Justin progresses from Year#1 to Year#2 before deciding the fate of Matt Ryan in 2022. There would likely be a trade market for Ryan. I don't care if Kyle Pitts is the greatest TE in NFL history or if Penei Sewell is the greatest LT in NFL history or if Falcons trade down and take Patrick Surtain and get some other useable pieces - if Justin Fields is drafted and he becomes a 10-12 year starter in the league and is a star - then drafting Justin Fields and foregoing a non-QB or a non-QB plus extra picks - is THE BEST move that Terry Fontenot could make - PERIOD, THE END. This Falcons team isn't going to the SuperBowl in 2021 or 2022 - ceiling would probably be a 1st round exit in the playoffs - respectability doesn't move the meter nor improve the franchise - been there/done that. This is about building a team that can win SuperBowls and extending the window when it would actually be possible.
Option#2: Trade Down from #4 but stay in the Top 10 (targets: Kyle Pitts, Trey Lance,Patrick Surtain or Micah Parsons - in that order): Option#2 would only be entertained if Justin Fields was off the board at #4 (also assumes Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence off the board). I believe both Bengals(#5) and Dolphins(#6) would have Kyle Pitts in their sites at their spots so any move out of #4 likely means the Falcons are saying "goodbye" to Kyle Pitts and I have to believe Terry Fontenot would know this and be OK w/ it. He would have to - at that point - be willing to forego Pitts w/ the assumption that Trey Lance or Patrick Surtain plus the extra bounty would be worth foregoing the more sure thing gold jacket player of Pitts. I don't believe the Falcons should move from #4 for any less than a 1st round pick in 2022 plus a 2nd round pick in 2021 - that would be the absolute MINIMUM price I would accept if I was TF. "Pay to Play" if you want #4. If a team outside the Top 10 wants #4 - then you better have a heckuva package of multiple 1st round picks and marquee players (WFT = Chase Young). Since Trey Lance is the riskiest QB pick between Fields/Lance (IMHO), for me, to draft him - it should only be in a trade-down scenario where you get more to justify the risk of taking such an inexperienced player.
Option#3: Stick at #4, Draft TE Kyle Pitts-Florida - How awesome is it that this is our "worst case scenario" - some of you will say this should be Option#1 - and it very well might be true in Flowery Branch.
Bottom-line, the Atlanta Falcons control this draft - and the NFL media - that likes to pretend the Atlanta Falcons don't even exist as a franchise - will be forced to talk about them for the next 15 days leading up to the draft - if for no other reason than that, I hope TF doesn't make a trade - or at least waits until draft day to do so.
It won't go away just like that. Dems gained IMMENSE power and influence because 0f covid. They will fight for masks, s.d., continuation of executive orders for governors, and lockdowns. Teachers unions will continue to not go back to work. The 0excuse in 4 months will be that not 100% of everyone is vaccinated.
Not trying to be decisive just stating what has happened and what I believe is likely to happen. For all we know they will start all this **** back up for flu season and just say its the worst flu since......
I would have hoped that Jacob Tuioti-Mariner would have actually show up more since I believe he had more playing time and also playing in the DE position as for Cominsky plays DT and DE but at a minimum time.
The fascination with him is that with the little bit of time he has played he has put up the same numbers as Jacob Tuioti-Mariner has. So we wonder if a better coaching staff and system would benefit him... and all our players.