OK, fine, you might say, Democrats can pull off a 53-point swing in a low turnout special election. But surely that doesn't mean anything for November?

Yes it does! Special elections, in the aggregate, are closely correlated with midterms. Data:https://t.co/WF43JahIck pic.twitter.com/XAQdiFReSx

— Daniel Donner (@donnermaps) February 7, 2018