It's a drop-off to 4th and 5th, which is Bernie & Buttigieg.

Bernie's position (~15% in polls with 100% name ID) is historically a losing one and the more you look under the surface (e.g. IA polls) the worse it gets.

Buttigieg's coalition (white, college edu) may be too narrow.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 11, 2019