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In Topic: Drafting Julio - And Comparing Him To Past Wr Drafted
06 June 2013 - 07:18 AM
bt12483, on 06 June 2013 - 07:08 AM, said:
Julio Jones cost:
2011: 1/2/4
2012: 1/4
Here is one scenario for comparison:
In 2011 the Ravens drafted:
1) Jimmy Smith
2) Torrey Smith
4) Tandon Doss
In 2012 the Ravens drafted:
1) traded for picks 35 and 98, which were used to draft Courtney Upshaw and Gino Gradkowski
4) Christian Thompson
A lot of these guys have yet to get a shot (namely Tandon Doss, Gino Gradkowski and Christian Thompson). Doss and Gradkowski are currently battling for starting roles because of the exit of Boldin ( WR ) and Birk ( C ). I will be the first to admit that not all of these picks have turned out to be major contributors to this point. But it is still too early to judge when a few of them were sitting on the bench behind veterans.
Courtney Upshaw generally played well as a rookie (big play in the SB), and despite Jimmy Smith's regular season injury issues, he has made some very big plays for the Ravens in the playoffs (INT in NE in 2012 playoffs, big hits during goal line stand in SB). Torrey Smith has been the standout, and has produced the following in his first 2 seasons:
32 games, 99 receptions, 1696 yards, 15 TD...compared to....
29 games, 133 receptions, 2157 yards, 18 TD (Julio Jones)
If you extrapolate Torrey Smith's average yards/reception (17.1) and TD rate (15%) to match Julio's 133 receptions, Torrey Smith would actually have better numbers in his first 2 years than Julio, and they would be:
133 receptions, 2277 yards, 20 TD...but that is speculation.
In the real world Torrey Smith up to this point has contributed 79% of Julio's yardage and 83% of his TDs with 34 less receptions...but with a full slate of draft picks the Ravens also have players such as Upshaw and Jimmy Smith and other guys that could be potential starting contributors this year.
So the question is: was the 21% more yards and 17% more TDs from Julio worth players such as Courtney Upshaw, Jimmy Smith, etc.? Obviously the Falcons probably would have drafted different guys, but I hope you can see how the extra 4 players can contribute.
Furthermore, by trading up, that means the Falcons had to pay Julio more $$.
Julio looks to become a great WR, I just think he was too expensive.
2011: 1/2/4
2012: 1/4
Here is one scenario for comparison:
In 2011 the Ravens drafted:
1) Jimmy Smith
2) Torrey Smith
4) Tandon Doss
In 2012 the Ravens drafted:
1) traded for picks 35 and 98, which were used to draft Courtney Upshaw and Gino Gradkowski
4) Christian Thompson
A lot of these guys have yet to get a shot (namely Tandon Doss, Gino Gradkowski and Christian Thompson). Doss and Gradkowski are currently battling for starting roles because of the exit of Boldin ( WR ) and Birk ( C ). I will be the first to admit that not all of these picks have turned out to be major contributors to this point. But it is still too early to judge when a few of them were sitting on the bench behind veterans.
Courtney Upshaw generally played well as a rookie (big play in the SB), and despite Jimmy Smith's regular season injury issues, he has made some very big plays for the Ravens in the playoffs (INT in NE in 2012 playoffs, big hits during goal line stand in SB). Torrey Smith has been the standout, and has produced the following in his first 2 seasons:
32 games, 99 receptions, 1696 yards, 15 TD...compared to....
29 games, 133 receptions, 2157 yards, 18 TD (Julio Jones)
If you extrapolate Torrey Smith's average yards/reception (17.1) and TD rate (15%) to match Julio's 133 receptions, Torrey Smith would actually have better numbers in his first 2 years than Julio, and they would be:
133 receptions, 2277 yards, 20 TD...but that is speculation.
In the real world Torrey Smith up to this point has contributed 79% of Julio's yardage and 83% of his TDs with 34 less receptions...but with a full slate of draft picks the Ravens also have players such as Upshaw and Jimmy Smith and other guys that could be potential starting contributors this year.
So the question is: was the 21% more yards and 17% more TDs from Julio worth players such as Courtney Upshaw, Jimmy Smith, etc.? Obviously the Falcons probably would have drafted different guys, but I hope you can see how the extra 4 players can contribute.
Furthermore, by trading up, that means the Falcons had to pay Julio more $$.
Julio looks to become a great WR, I just think he was too expensive.
Two things here:
1. We're comparing what the Ravens did w/ their picks. The Ravens FO have proven themselves to be one if not the best team at finding and developing talent. Since TD has been here in 2008, he's made some great picks, but he's made some bad ones as well. Had we kept our five picks, there's no telling how they would've panned out. TD did come out and say, had we stayed put, he was targeting Gabe Carimi, who's been a bust so far in Chicago.
2. TD also said one of the big reasons for the trade up was b/c of the amount of talented depth we have on the roster. Even if the later picks would been decent picks, they still would've struggled to get on the field.
I was totally against the trade up at the time b/c I was worried Julio wouldn't be a legitimate superstar. He's completely exceeded expectations, and one could make an argument he's the best WR not named Calvin Johnson.
