ATLFalcons11

When is it ok to trade up?

64 posts in this topic

Every year we go through the offseason and there's a total disdain for trading up. Many reasons abound for why it's bad to ranging from we have too many holes to it's a deep draft.

So I ask the draft experts, when is it a good idea to trade up? What's the criteria that you look for? Is there ever a good time?

Knight of God likes this

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There's no easy answer. If the player ends up being worth what was traded, then it's always ok. It took a while for the Julio trade to be worth it, but it did eventually. Trufant paid off faster because we gave up less. Lower round trade-ups can be even more valuable, as in Grady Jarrett.

So it's always ok if it works. And never ok if it fails. How's that?

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Well I'm thinking before the culmination of the player selected contributions to the team. I mean before a GM heads into the draft there has to be a strategy for making the decision before it happens. 

It cant just be I hope this guy pans out or at least I hope that's not the approach. 

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It's generally OK if it's a player who has dropped due to lack of fit for teams, and is approaching teams for which they will be a scheme fit, and you're not trading away much.

The fundamental problem with trading up is, all draft picks are gambles.  If you trade your 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for a 1st, then you only get one roll of the dice instead of 3.  That is very dangerous.

But, if you're trading a 1st and 4th to get higher in the 1st by a couple spots, to get a top 15 talent who's dropped to 25 because he's a 4-3 DT and all the people who passed on him are 3-4 teams, that can make sense.  You're still getting good value and for a guy who fits your scheme well.

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The right answer is there is no easy answer. It all depends on if the player you select justifies everything you give up for him. Julio has outlasted and outplayed every pick used to trade up and get him, so that was justified. Obviously that's a hindsight situation. This year an example would be "Is Haason Reddick better than Tanoh Kpassagnon and Daeshon Hall?" And that's why none of us sit in a war room.

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3 players I would trade up for who may fall more than expected are Malik Hooker (Some think he's injury prone, limited tape, etc). If Hooker falls out of the top 10, go get him. Also if Reuben Foster falls out of the top 10 because of the combine mishap, go get him. Lastly, if Haason Reddick falls out of the top 15, go get him. Those are the only 3 I'd be fine with.

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I was interested because I'm looking at the roster and thinking. 

1. Who do we need to replace from an age/skill standpoint in the next 2-3 years? Possibly Levitre, Sanu (2)

2. How many holes do we have as starters? RG

3. What positions are we struggling depth wise? LB, pure DT, OL

Because of how low the answers to those questions are I think this draft, regardless of how deep it is, is the perfect draft to trade up if there was that one guy. I am close to thinking that that guy is Haason Reddick.

Knight of God likes this

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The only guy I'd trade up for in the 1st is Malik Hooker. His skill set is just so rare. Safety prospects as good as him rarely come out. You have to go back to the ET/Berry draft to see a comparable. Hooker is the absolute prototype cover 3 FS and could have a Ed Reed type effect on this defense. 

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So, I might be going to take a shot. But first, if I give an answer, would I be considered a draft expert? If yes, then, I won't, because, While I may aspire to be one, in reality, I ain't one...yet!

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Posted (edited)

1 hour ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

Every year we go through the offseason and there's a total disdain for trading up. Many reasons abound for why it's bad to ranging from we have too many holes to it's a deep draft.

So I ask the draft experts, when is it a good idea to trade up? What's the criteria that you look for? Is there ever a good time?

If you are a aging team and feel you are just one guy away from a super bowl would be the best reason, IMO. This is why I Falcons justified (but i was against at the time) the Julio trade, I felt we were an aging team then and needed an infusion of youth to take advantage of Ryan's career progression, Falcons (in retrospect)  rightly felt julio could help them win a super bowl. We got within 10 yards before team regressed backwards, so we both were right I guess. 

I feel this team has the potential to be a dynasty if we continue to draft well, so I am again against a trade up. If we draft BPA who fits Quinn's scheme we could be in early stages of a dynasty, with Ryan and Julio still in their primes. But we need to hit on all our early picks to be able to sustain that. Realistic or not, that's how I look at that issue, with a core belief we can hit on every pick. 

BTW I would always prefer trading down in quality drafts like this one, rather than to trade up.

Edited by Vandy
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A similar question this year would be if it's OK to trade nezt year's 1st to get into the top of 2nd. Normally I would hate to trade future first but a FS or edge rusher that you could find in the first half of second this year is most probably better than those positions in the bottom half of first next year. You would lose the 5th year option of a first rounder but given our window for a SB run I think it's an idea worth considering. 

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17 minutes ago, roguebeaver said:

So, I might be going to take a shot. But first, if I give an answer, would I be considered a draft expert? If yes, then, I won't, because, While I may aspire to be one, in reality, I ain't one...yet!

Dream big man! Dream big!

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20 minutes ago, Knight of God said:

The disdain on the boards comes from the idea that more is better. I believe playmaking talent is worth more than numbers. Its not really about where you pick a guy, rather is he a game changer at his position.

Absolutely. If he's your guy and you feel he's a game changer go get him. Or trade back and get him while picking up and extra pick. Absolutely KOG

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1 minute ago, TheFatboi said:

Absolutely. If he's your guy and you feel he's a game changer go get him. Or trade back and get him while picking up and extra pick. Absolutely KOG

So then the question for you and @Knight of God is.....is there a guy like that for you in this draft and if so who is it?

Will that have a negative impact on other positions or depth of our roster?

I see a young team for at least 3 years with not much need to go outside of it unless something foreseen happens. I feel like this year and next year are "perfect" times to "mortgage" the draft if the player is there.

m2Falcons and Knight of God like this

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1 hour ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

Every year we go through the offseason and there's a total disdain for trading up. Many reasons abound for why it's bad to ranging from we have too many holes to it's a deep draft.

So I ask the draft experts, when is it a good idea to trade up? What's the criteria that you look for? Is there ever a good time?

In my view, there are two times it makes sense to trade up near the top. 

  1. You need a franchise quarterback. Without this, nothing else matters. May as well go get your guy. 
  2. You are pretty stacked and believe that you are one player away from a ring. The Julio trade is a perfect example, although it didn't pay the immediate reward for which we hoped. 

As it stands for us, the only reason I would do this is to snag a once-in-a-decade pass rushing end with every tool you'd want. 

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1 minute ago, ATLFalcons11 said:

So then the question for you and @Knight of God is.....is there a guy like that for you in this draft and if so who is it?

Will that have a negative impact on other positions or depth of our roster?

I see a young team for at least 3 years with not much need to go outside of it unless something foreseen happens. I feel like this year and next year are "perfect" times to "mortgage" the draft if the player is there.

There is so much talent that can be had at 31 and after. There are 40 projected first rounders and 60 with first round playmaking talent at their positions. This is why I think people are just unreasonable. Everyone isn't looking at the same exact players we are or even positions. So there will be an impact player at 31.

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I really don't think this year is the year to trade up. This draft is extremely deep with talent throughout the middle rounds at positions we could use.

I think it's ok to trade up in drafts that you feel are top heavy, especially at a 'need' position.

Of course the draft has a mind of it's own and if a certain prospect (Hooker, Reddick) fall far enough then this answer could change.

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1 hour ago, Arkridge said:

3 players I would trade up for who may fall more than expected are Malik Hooker (Some think he's injury prone, limited tape, etc). If Hooker falls out of the top 10, go get him. Also if Reuben Foster falls out of the top 10 because of the combine mishap, go get him. Lastly, if Haason Reddick falls out of the top 15, go get him. Those are the only 3 I'd be fine with.

I wouldn't go for either if they fell out there of the top 10.

For me Foster after watching a little bit will go in the top 15 but I still wouldn't go get him.

Hooker perfect fit yes but going as far as we have to go for him he'd have to be Julio Jones good and have that effect on the team as you'd destroy 2 drafts going for Hooker.

RobSalvador likes this

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3 minutes ago, Falcon Ben said:

In my view, there are two times it makes sense to trade up near the top. 

  1. You need a franchise quarterback. Without this, nothing else matters. May as well go get your guy. 
  2. You are pretty stacked and believe that you are one player away from a ring. The Julio trade is a perfect example, although it didn't pay the immediate reward for which we hoped. 

As it stands for us, the only reason I would do this is to snag a once-in-a-decade pass rushing end with every tool you'd want. 

So because of our recent seasom, then is it safe to say we are NOT 1 player away. We are there....so what does our current situation say?

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