K26dp

Braves Roster Speculation for 2017

641 posts in this topic

@VoiceofReason95

Tyler Flowers is under contract for 2017 so the Braves will be looking for someone to pair with him, preferably a left-handed hitting catcher. They're not gonna spend a lot of money for that someone.

It appears they're gonna role with Garcia at 3B next year and pair him with maybe Rio Ruiz.

Inciarte would stay in CF over Smith.

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28 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

@VoiceofReason95

Tyler Flowers is under contract for 2017 so the Braves will be looking for someone to pair with him, preferably a left-handed hitting catcher. They're not gonna spend a lot of money for that someone.

It appears they're gonna role with Garcia at 3B next year and pair him with maybe Rio Ruiz.

Inciarte would stay in CF over Smith.

I'd prefer Tyler Flowers in a straight backup role, I don't fully buy his season but I do think he improved a little from what he was in the past.

Smith simply doesn't have the arm for right and Kemp is really bad defensively. One way or another of the 4 outfielders that are here, only 2 need to still be here by July next year. Preference would be Kemp/Inciarte or Smith/power hitting RF (but who?).

I'd actually prefer to also move Kemp, but not this offseason and it may be too tough to.

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I think those are fairly plausible moves. I think the Braves are pretty high on Povse, so I don't know if he'd be the particular chip they'd cash in, but I can see something like that happening.

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OK, I'm going to go over some of the possible starting pitcher trade candidates, and try to look at recent trades of similar pitchers to see what it would take to get them.

  • Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
    • 3.7 projected WAR (2016)
    • Contract: 3Y/20.3M (team options for 2020 and 2021)
    • 28 years old

Archer has had another solid year for Tampa Bay, one year after a Cy Young-caliber season. He has a relatively team-friendly contract. There hasn't really been a pitcher with his combination of team control and production traded lately, so it's tough to gauge what it may take to land him if the Rays decide to go full-on rebuild; I wouldn't be surprised to see them keep Archer in the same way that the Braves decided to hold onto Teheran. If they do decide to cash him out, my guess is that a starting point would be the prospect haul the Phillies got for Cole Hamels, which was C Jorge Alfaro, OF Nick Williams, and RHPs Jake Thompson, Alec Asher, and Jerad Eickhoff.

The Braves equivalent of that would be something like 3B Austin Riley, OF Braxton Davidson, LHP Max Fried, and RHPs Max Povse and Matt Withrow. 

If the Braves acquired Archer, he would headline the rotation and provide 3.5-4.5 additional WAR to the team.

 

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  • Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
    • 2.2 projected WAR (2016)
    • First year arbitration 2017, free agency after 2019
    • 27 years old

Perhaps a more realistic trade target would be the Rays' number 2 starter. Odorizzi has been a capable starter for Tampa Bay, though this season will likely be the first that he'll go over 170 IP and his HR-allowed rate has jumped up a bit. Odorizzi is a fly-ball pitcher that has taken advantage of playing in the Trop with excellent outfielders. 

The closest pitcher to this that's been traded was RHP Jeff Samardzija by Oakland to the White Sox before the 2015 season. That trade netted Oakland IF Marcus Semien, RHP Chris Bassitt, C Josh Phegley and 1B Rangel Ravelo, and that was for one season of Samardzija. 

The Braves equivalent would be IF Jace Peterson, LHP Jed Bradley, C Willian Astudillo, and 1B Joey Meneses. Looking at that I would pull the trigger immediately, but we're taking 3 years of control for Odorizzi versus one year for Samardzija. That means perhaps Bradley upgrades to someone like Chris Ellis or Rob Whalen and/or William Astudillo upgrades to Joe Odom or Kade Scivicque. And of course, Tampa Bay would evaluate prospects much differently than Oakland.

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  • Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
    • 5.5 projected WAR (2016)
    • Contract: 1Y/12M (team options for 2018 and 2019)
    • 28 years old

With the White Sox giving all indications that they'll go into re-build mode after another disappointing season and trade-deadline speculation, Sale looks like he may be on the move. If he is, he will certainly garner a haul of players in return given his age, contract, and production. On the other hand, rumors are that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf wants to build around Sale, so it may take an overwhelming offer to get him.

Much like Archer, it's hard to find an equivalent trade based on the years of control and the contract; guys like this simply aren't available. I think you'd have to take the trade haul I have up there for Archer, then bling it out; Albies instead of Davidson, Sims instead of Withrow, and probably add one of the lower-levels studs like Allard, Soroka, or Anderson. 

It would raise the Braves instantly to sniffing around .500 next season, even without making any other moves. The cost in future value though would be enormous. 

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  • Jose Quintana, Chicago White Sox
    • 5.2 projected WAR (2016)
    • Contract: 2Y/16.8M (team options for 2019 and 2020)
    • 28 years old

Pitching in the shadow of Chris Sale, Quintana has had a monster season, and he's been good for awhile now, averaging over 4 WAR over the last four seasons. If the White Sox are serious about rebuilding but want to build around Sale, Quintana is their biggest and best chip for a quick turnaround.

A package to get Quintana will again cost the Braves at least two of the A-grade prospects (Swanson, Albies, Newcomb, Allard, Soroka, Anderson), and couple of the B-grade guys (Riley, Fried, Sims), and a C-level guy or two thrown in for good measure.

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  • Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins
    • 3.0 projected WAR (2016)
    • Contract: 2Y/28 (team option for 2019, vesting option for 2020)
    • 34 years old

Santana this season has produced the second best season of his career, behind only his All-Star 2008 season with the Angels and just ahead of his solid campaign with Atlanta in 2014. There's no reason over the next two seasons not to expect production somewhere around the same area, which is roughly league average, or 3rd-starter if you prefer. The Twins clearly thought they would be farther along in their rebuild than they are now (as evidenced by their firing of their GM). Santana is one of the few chips they have left that could possibly accelerate their climb to respectability. 

Trading for Santana would be trading potential upside for certainty. Santana in the rotation does not make the Braves contenders. It does make the Braves rotation a little more stable however. That could translate to a couple of extra wins, and would reduce the team's reliance on as many young pitchers to "hit". There is an opportunity cost though if more than two of the young starters start performing at better-than-league average levels; at that point the presence of Santana would be not only a payroll drain but an opportunity cost.

A reasonable package for Santana would look like something a little more than what Oakland got from the Astros for Scott Kazmir last season; the Braves equivalent would be OF Ray-Patrick Didder and RHP Chris Ellis, plus probably another C-grade prospect to account for the additional year of control. 

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2 hours ago, K26dp said:
  • Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
    • 2.2 projected WAR (2016)
    • First year arbitration 2017, free agency after 2019
    • 27 years old

Perhaps a more realistic trade target would be the Rays' number 2 starter. Odorizzi has been a capable starter for Tampa Bay, though this season will likely be the first that he'll go over 170 IP and his HR-allowed rate has jumped up a bit. Odorizzi is a fly-ball pitcher that has taken advantage of playing in the Trop with excellent outfielders. 

The closest pitcher to this that's been traded was RHP Jeff Samardzija by Oakland to the White Sox before the 2015 season. That trade netted Oakland IF Marcus Semien, RHP Chris Bassitt, C Josh Phegley and 1B Rangel Ravelo, and that was for one season of Samardzija. 

The Braves equivalent would be IF Jace Peterson, LHP Jed Bradley, C Willian Astudillo, and 1B Joey Meneses. Looking at that I would pull the trigger immediately, but we're taking 3 years of control for Odorizzi versus one year for Samardzija. That means perhaps Bradley upgrades to someone like Chris Ellis or Rob Whalen and/or William Astudillo upgrades to Joe Odom or Kade Scivicque. And of course, Tampa Bay would evaluate prospects much differently than Oakland.

Jake Odorizzi would be very welcomed in Atlanta and would be a much cheaper option.

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31 minutes ago, Falconsfan567 said:

I know both are right-handed hitters but I'd be perfectly fine with Flowers and Recker splitting the catching duties 50/50 in 2017.

Recker is due for some major regression. Flowers probably as well.

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One before bedtime...

Sonny Gray, Oakland A's

  • 1.0 projected WAR (2016)
  • Contract: First year arbitration 2017, free agency after 2019
  • 27 years old

Gray is of a similar age and contract situation as Odorizzi, but with a more overall successful track record (avg 3.4 WAR 2014-2015). However, there are some flashing red medical warnings, as Gray missed time this season with first a "strained right trapezius" (back strain), and now "right extensor muscles soreness" (forearm tightness) that has kept him out since early August. In and of themselves, these injuries are not deal-breakers, and could just be normal strain for a guy who pitched over 200 innings the prior two seasons. However, forearm tightness is sometimes a precursor to UCL injuries. It may also indicate something is off with his mechanics. 

If the Braves don't believe there's anything too bad in the medicals, Gray presents an intriguing buy-low candidate. Now entering arbitration, the A's may be looking to make a move. The most recently traded player with a similar profile is Shelby Miller, but I don't see the Braves trading Swanson, Inciarte, and Blair to Oakland for Sonny Gray.

A package of Lucas Sims, Mallex Smith, and Akeel Morris might get it done.

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Odorizzi/Santana, would be the guys I went after not tied up to a long term money situation both will be productive and not road-block anyone down the road. They both have make-up of Solid #3 starters and still got to stick to process and still think Folty/Wisler/ and a either of those 2 above give us a solid Top 3 in rotation as still believe by next season Folty/Wisler will continue thru slow improvement.

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DOB says it is possible the Braves keep the OF as it is and have Mallex as the #4 OF. He said they "love" Kemp being behind Freeman and are confident he'll be in better shape come Spring. He says they also love the leadership, consistant and steady approach of Markakis. DOB adds that for the Braves to move anyone in the OF they will have to get a very strong offer.

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5 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

DOB says it is possible the Braves keep the OF as it is and have Mallex as the #4 OF. He said they "love" Kemp being behind Freeman and are confident he'll be in better shape come Spring. He says they also love the leadership, consistant and steady approach of Markakis. DOB adds that for the Braves to move anyone in the OF they will have to get a very strong offer.

So other than freeman and kemp, are we thinking no more power? 

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3 minutes ago, TheTrue7 said:

So other than freeman and kemp, are we thinking no more power? 

We should get more power out of 3B and SS just by filling from within (Ruiz to platoon with Garcia, Swanson all year). And the Braves have been making all sorts of noise about getting a power-hitting catcher.

TheTrue7 likes this

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1 minute ago, K26dp said:

We should get more power out of 3B and SS just by filling from within (Ruiz to platoon with Garcia, Swanson all year). And the Braves have been making all sorts of noise about getting a power-hitting catcher.

Any way to get Gattis back? :ninja:

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Just now, TheTrue7 said:

Any way to get Gattis back? :ninja:

I'm sure there's a way, but the reasons we traded him are still the reasons we probably don't want him back.

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Just now, K26dp said:

I'm sure there's a way, but the reasons we traded him are still the reasons we probably don't want him back.

Defensive liability?

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