K26dp

Braves Roster Speculation for 2017

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Warning: this post will contain mild sabermetrics. Viewer discretion is advised. 

With the season five weeks away from completion and the Braves cruising to what will be an expected poor record, most of us are already looking ahead to next season. With the promise of a new ballpark and increased payroll, this offseason will no doubt be very interesting, The front office continues to insist that they will attempt to put a credible product on the field. Assuming they are playing straight, what will it take to make that happen?

First of all, we need to know what we have - and don't have - with this team. Below is a chart showing the current projected WAR total by position.

Projected 2016 WAR.png

For those unfamiliar with WAR, here is a primer from Fangraphs. The above totals were derived by simply taking positional WAR as it stands as of yesterday, and projecting out for the remaining 31 games. I am hopeful the final numbers will be slightly better as we'll have contributions from Dansby Swanson and Matt Kemp at SS and LF respectively to help make up some ground at those positions.

So the front office has said the intention is to compete in 2017. Of course, there is no real definition for "competitive team" exactly, but at the minimum the team should have at least a .500 record.  A .500 team will generally have a team WAR of around 35. So John Coppellella has to figure out how to get the Braves from a team with a combined WAR of a little over 13 up to around 35.

Looking at the chart above, there's three positions that are projected at negative WAR: 2B, 3B, and SS. These also happen to be the three positions where there is are young players available from the farm: Ozzie Albies, Rio Ruiz, and Dansby Swanson. 

Since Swanson is already in the majors and has now assumed the majority of the playing time in the week and a half of his call-up, we can probably assume he'll be the Opening Day starter and, barring injury, have the most playing time at the position. While I would't project Swanson to be an upper-echelon offensive player in his first full season, he should be at least major league average, with above-average defense and baserunning. That would give the shortstop position around a 3 WAR, or a 5.5 WAR upgrade over this season. 

Second base is a little more up-in-the-air. Ozzie Albies is the presumed heir apparent, but he'll be only 20 years old as spring training begins. Also, the incumbent Jace Peterson has improved his play after a horrific start to the season that saw him demoted to AAA for a time. If Peterson's second half is real and he ends up with half the playing time, that would be worth about 1.5 WAR. If Albies gets the other half of the PT, he'll likely put up similar value; above-average defense and baserunning, average to below-average offense. Between Peterson and Albies, I think we can project 2.5 WAR.

Like Peterson, Garcia was so horrid in the first half he was demoted to AAA. The second half he's been he's been roughly league average. I'm not quite buying the resurgence; while he's clearly not as bad as he was in the first half, nothing in his career suggests he'll be able to maintain his current offensive or defensive production. He'll turn 32 shortly after the season starts next year. At some point, it is likely Rio Ruiz will be promoted from AAA and assume some of the playing time at 3B. I think we could get around 2 WAR from the position.

Moving on, at 1B we have Freddie Freeman, who has averaged 4.5 WAR over his last four seasons, with this season projected to be his best. He'll play 2017 mostly at age 27, so he should be right in his prime. I'm projecting 5.5 WAR for him.

Left field as it stands now will be primarily Matt Kemp. He's essentially right at replacement level due to his near-league-worst defense and poor baserunning. I'm not confident that, at age 32, Kemp will be able to significantly improve the level of play. I'm projecting 0.5 WAR from left field, with some of that production provided by Mallex Smith as the 4th outfielder.

Centerfield as it stands will have the return of Ender Inciarte. Inciarte was injured and got off to a slow start, but he's been hitting well the second half and is now on track for a career best 3.5 WAR. At 26 years old next season, there's no reason to project a worse season, and in case of injury Mallex Smith should be able to step in and provide similar value. Let's keep CF at 3.5 WAR.

Right field is Nick Markakis barring trade. He provided 1.5 WAR last season, is will provide around 1.0 this season. While he catches what he can get to, his defensive range is dropping every season, he's dropped some on-base ability, and together that more than negates his slight bump in power. Let's assume an additional drop in WAR next season, putting him at 0.5 WAR. 

Catcher as it stands now will be Tyler Flowers and Anthony Recker. Flowers will be 31 next season, but his skill-set - decent defense, moderate power, mediocre contact - isn't one that you'd expect to drastically drop at that age. Recker on the other hand is 32 years old and is playing the best stretch of baseball in his career. I suspect there is significant regression in his future; most of his plate value has come from a higher on-base rate. If the playing time is split about 67/33 between the two, you'd end up with about 1.8 WAR. 

The biggest opportunity for a young player to significantly alter the course of 2017 will be the rotation. The two givens at this point are Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz. Teheran is projected for 2.5 WAR, his second-best season of his career. Going into his age 26 year, there's no reason to suspect diminishment for Teheran. I'm going to be conservative, because pitching is inherently more risky, and project Teheran with another 2.5 WAR. Foltynewicz remains inconsistent start-to-start, but he improved from below replacement level last season to projected 1.1 WAR this season. At age 25, and with a strong arm, I'm going to project more improvement, but still conservative: 1.5 WAR.

The rest of the rotation could be filled by a variety of players. Matt Wisler, John Gant, and Williams Perez have been the three best starters after Teheran and Foltynewicz (ugh), and I don't see an absolute certain new pitcher arising (though Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and Chris Ellis are on the short list). It may be Rob Whalen, Aaron Blair, Tyrell Jenkins or a couple other options, but there shouldn't be that much of a difference unless someone really steps up. I'm going with a combined 1.5 WAR for starters 3-5.

Finally, the bullpen. The variability of bullpens are well known, so I'm going to take the easy way out and project 2.8 WAR for the bullpen, roughly the same as 2016, knowing it could be incrementally better with better arms matriculating through the system and the return to healt from some others.

So where does that leave us?

Projected 2017 WAR.png

Going from around 60 wins up to around 74 would be a substantial improvement, and that's just utilizing available talent. Obviously there's no guarantees here, and injury or an off-year by Freeman could cause a big swing.

But the front office has said "competitive". That means raising that 27.1 projected team WAR up to 35. That means acquiring better players by trade or free agency. 

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The front office has been most clear on improving two positions this offseason, so I will start with them: catcher and starting pitching. 

Here are the current projected free agent catchers from MLB Trade Rumors:

FA Catchers.png

I did not include Jonathan Lucroy, whose option will certainly be picked up by the Rangers.

Wilson Ramos obviously is the best available option here. What can he expect in the free agent market? I don't think it's too far fetched that he could land something like the 5 year/$85M deal that Brian McCann got from the Yankees. It's unlikely that the Braves will want to make that kind of investment for a soon-to-be 30 year old catcher (after all, they didn't with McCann), but it's not totally out of the realm of possibility. Assuming a 67/33 spit in PT between Ramos and Flowers, I'd project 5 WAR from the position, which would bump the model up to 30.3 team WAR.

Alex Avila is a possibility in my opinion, because he can probably be had on a two-year deal. As a left-handed hitter he would complement Flowers as bench piece, and his defense is well regarded. Replacing Recker with Avila and splitting time 50/50 with Flowers would bring the catcher position up to about 2.3 WAR, team WAR up to 27.6.

Matt Wieters is a well-known veteran with a strong defensive reputation, though advanced defensive metrics have not been high on him the last couple of years. Offensively, his wRC+ is down to 80 (not good). If the Braves signed him, he'd be expected to have at least half the playing time, and he's probably a slight improvement over Anthony Recker. There is also the chance that he regains some of the offensive prowess from a few years ago. The question really is the contract; will he be perused as the player he is, or the player he was? If the latter, you can count the Braves out of the running, and for good reason.

None of the other options are appealing either due to age or because there's not a significant advantage over the projected Flowers/Recker tandem.   

 

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I dont want anything to do with Wieters. He's clearly on the decline. Id take Avila and that might be the most realistic option. Ramos would be a splash but $80M for a catcher thats struggled to stay healthy is steep. That said Ramos is the #1 option if you can get him.

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Yes definitely no to Wieters. Too injury prone. At C I won't be surprised if we stick with Flowers/Recker. 

Where do you think Mallex Smith fits in with the team? If we do move Markasis, I could seem him somewhere in the outfield. 

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I think our biggest weakness going forward is catcher. Instead of looking at Ramos do we look at a prospect in another system? Maybe Elias Diaz from Pittsburgh. He isn't even their top prospect at C. 

Also need to look seriously at our arms since we've traded so many away this season.

Nice way of looking at things, I'm all good with Garcia but wouldn't mind seeing him and Ruis platooning unless we can move him.

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9 hours ago, Unkn0wn said:

I dont want anything to do with Wieters. He's clearly on the decline. Id take Avila and that might be the most realistic option. Ramos would be a splash but $80M for a catcher thats struggled to stay healthy is steep. That said Ramos is the #1 option if you can get him.

One thing I forgot to mention with Ramos is the likely additional cost of a draft pick if the Braves sign him. The first pick will be protected, so that means losing pick 2-1. That wouldn't really be a consideration if you think Ramos is the missing piece to a title run, but it's a steeper price considering we're still in the re-tooling phase and we'll pick first that round.

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9 hours ago, tl;dr said:

Yes definitely no to Wieters. Too injury prone. At C I won't be surprised if we stick with Flowers/Recker. 

Where do you think Mallex Smith fits in with the team? If we do move Markasis, I could seem him somewhere in the outfield. 

Right now it's 4th outfielder, but probably with significant playing time subbing out for Matt Kemp in late innings, pinch hitting and running, and getting one or two starts a week. 

If Markakis is traded the OF becomes Kemp-Smith-Inciarte, which is marginally better, but the Braves would have to then back-fill that 4th OF spot. 

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8 hours ago, maorifalcon said:

I think our biggest weakness going forward is catcher. Instead of looking at Ramos do we look at a prospect in another system? Maybe Elias Diaz from Pittsburgh. He isn't even their top prospect at C. 

Also need to look seriously at our arms since we've traded so many away this season.

Nice way of looking at things, I'm all good with Garcia but wouldn't mind seeing him and Ruis platooning unless we can move him.

I'll have a whole post looking at possible trade candidates for catcher, and another set of posts on starting pitchers.

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1 hour ago, K26dp said:

One thing I forgot to mention with Ramos is the likely additional cost of a draft pick if the Braves sign him. The first pick will be protected, so that means losing pick 2-1. That wouldn't really be a consideration if you think Ramos is the missing piece to a title run, but it's a steeper price considering we're still in the re-tooling phase and we'll pick first that round.

Oh yeah, I forgot that too. Thats a really steep price to pay.

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2 hours ago, K26dp said:

I'll have a whole post looking at possible trade candidates for catcher, and another set of posts on starting pitchers.

Look forward to it... Your thought to go over some MLB-Ready minor league talent got me thinking and looking here's a few that wouldn't cost a huge haul for picking up and probably can play in 2017 in Platoon with Flowers or 2/3 split and be a improvement and possible eventually full time starter.

1. Andrew Knapp is #2 Catching prospect in Phillies Org seems ready and is a consistent switch hitter and in Platoon for next year and full time moving forward.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=595284#/career/R/hitting/2016/ALL

2. Daiz which you mentioned and spoke for could be eventually everyday catcher

3. Brett Nicholas from Rangers 28 year old who's just recently got called up has proven AAA #s and been pretty good in limited time in majors. The Rangers are locking up Lucroy long term and have another good catching prospect in Trevino set to be ready in a year or 2. Nicholas absolutely rakes from the Left Side and has very very good power in AAA in 277 at-bats has 10 HRs from left side he's a perfect platoon candidate with Flowers and wouldn't cost much and fairs okay vs lefties but just has some power negation from lefties though.

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Trades are a whole lot harder to forcast, given that we don't know who would likely be available or what it would take to trade for them. However, we can take a few educated guesses. The most likely trade candidates fall into two buckets: young catchers blocked by good incumbents and veteran catchers that are being pushed out by young catchers.

Looking at that first bucket, here are some possibilities.

Jorge Alfaro or Andrew Knapp, Phillies. The Phillies are essentially in the inverse position as the Braves right now in regards to their catching situation. They just traded longtime mainstay Carlos Ruiz to the Dodgers, but still have primary catcher Cameron Rupp playing at a high level. Behind Rupp at AAA is prospect Andrew Knapp and at AA is Jorge Alfaro. Alfaro grades out as the better catcher long-term, with better power and a better arm, and at age 23 could make it to the majors in 2017. Knapp is ahead of Alfaro developmentally, but his ceiling is a little lower. He's a more well-rounded receiver and game caller, and is a more advanced overall hitter, but with a weaker arm and lesser power. If acquired, either would vault to the top of Braves catcher prospects. For both candidates though there is the difficulty of trading within the division, and the rebuilding Phillies would definitely want to dip into the Braves reserve of young arms, a prospect that could easily come back to bite Atlanta in the long term.

Austin Barnes, Dodgers. The Dodgers have Yasmani Grandal under control for the next two years, and now own the option year for Carlos Ruiz. Barnes has long been the heir apparent at catcher for the Dodgers, but they have seemed resistant to getting a look at him behind the plate, playing him at 2B and 3B in his brief call-ups. Barnes is a good receiver and is an advanced hitter with good strike zone judgement and a line-drive stroke. What he doesn't have is a lot of power. Because he has a smaller frame, Barnes hasn't worked exclusively as a catcher, and could provide value at multiple positions. He'll be 27 years old next year, so his value likely won't get any higher; the Dodgers need to make a play him or trade him decision.

Chance Sisco, Orioles. If the Orioles decide to either stick with Wieters or go with another veteran catcher, they may make Sisco available to address other needs. Sisco is one of the best hitting catcher prospects, and he's destroyed the AA Eastern League this season with a .311/.398/.412 slash line. The knock on Sisco has been his receiving skills; he didn't start catching until his junior year of college and has been behind the curve defensively. He has reportedly really improved in this area this year to the point that Baseball America indicates that he could be considered an average defender. At only 22 next season and having not yet experienced AAA, he may be long-shot to be a help in 2017, but the potential for a big-time, left-handed offensive catcher in the near future is certainly intriguing. 

Elias Diaz, Pirates. First things first: Diaz is very likely the best and most polished defensive catcher in the minor leagues. He won the Eastern League award for best catcher in 2014 and the Captain's Chair Award for best defensive catcher last season. By all accounts he is an excellent receiver, calls a great game, and has a cannon arm. Offensively he has struggled at times, but will probably hit enough to make it worthwhile to keep him in the line-up for his mitt... with the right team. I'm not certain the Braves would be that team without a really good offensive catcher to pair him with right now, and the Pirates are showing all indications that Diaz will be paired with Francisco Cervelli next season. Because of this I think the likelihood of a trade is slight.

Tom Murphy, Rockies. Even with incumbent catcher Nick Hundley set for free agency next year, the Rockies have a lot of options at catcher. Murphy has been the heir apparent for a couple of years; he's a solid defender with a good arm, and at the plate shows decent power and a good hitting approach. However, the Rockies are one of those teams that always think they're just a player or two away from the playoffs every year, and tend to plug their needs with veterans. A re-signing of Hundley is not out of the question, and they have a capable back-up in place with 24 year old Tony Wolters. That said, I still expect the Rockies to turn the position over to Murphy, but the Braves could leap at this if the Rockies decide to patch with a veteran. 

Brett Nicholas, Rangers. Playing at age 28 next season, Nicholas is really more of a hitter that can catch than a catcher. He's got some pop in his bat, but also has a lot of swing-and-miss. His defense is average, and he's probably exactly what the Rangers are using him as, a 3rd catcher that can be brought up for injury but shouldn't get a lot of playing time. He's probably an offensive upgrade over Recker, and can probably be obtained cheaply, but he's not likely to be a huge help to the Braves in 2017.

Of the above, I like Barnes the most as far as likely availability and ability to help in 2017. 

 

 

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Just now, Unkn0wn said:

Austin Barnes is one I havent thought about it. Id love to see that happen. It does make sense for them to trade him.

Alright any thoughts on what Trade would look like?

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Regarding veteran catchers that might be on the move:

Brian McCann, Yankees. The future is suddenly now for the Yankees, as prospect Gary Sanchez is the de facto starting catcher. That makes McCann the DH and back-up catcher, an unusual place for a 12-year vet that is owed $34M over the next two seasons and still grades out as an above-average defensive catcher and a league-average hitter. It would seem that a trade should be in the works, and Atlanta's need for a catcher and their familiarity with McCann seems an obvious fit. That said, it's not unreasonable that the Yankees may keep McCann if they don't get perceived value back for him. His salary isn't a major consideration for them, he can be a mentor for Sanchez, and still play every day because of the DH. They could form something of a similar situation as in the mid-90's with Jorge Posada as the primary catcher and Jim F'ing Leyritz as the primary DH and back-up catcher. In short, I'm not sure the Yankees and Braves actually match-up on a deal here, but if they do it would represent a substantial improvement at the position for Atlanta in 2017. Given a 50/50 split in playing time, it would bump the projected WAR total for the position up to near 3. It would also provide some stability to the position and the give the Braves two full seasons to evaluate the young catchers in the system now.

Travis d'Arnaud, Mets. The Mets don't seem thrilled with either of their catching options, incumbant d'Arnaud or former prospect Kevin Plawecki. If the money works, it wouldn't be too surprising to see the team try to upgrade the position this offseason and trade d'Arnaud. d'Arnaud hasn't been quite the offensive catcher the Mets envisioned, in part due to a series of injuries. d'Arnaud will still only be 28 years old next season, and a healthy season could bring a return to form. The Mets haven't hesitated in trading with the Braves the last couple seasons. A d'Arnaud/Flowers share at the position would certainly be an upgrade, bringing the positional expected WAR up to around 2.3. d'Arnaud will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason, so the Braves would still have three years of team control. 

Welington Castillo, Diamondbacks. Castillo is a 7-year veteran that overcame and early reputation as a poor defensive catcher to become around major league average by the metrics and a good signal caller. At age 30 next season, Castillo probably is expendable to the Diamondbacks, assuming they will change out front office decision makers and go with youth. Because Castillo will be in his last year of arbitration and only has one more year of team control, his price tag may be lower than that of d'Arnaud, but with a similar uptick in positional WAR for 2017.

Blake Swihart, Red Sox. Swihart has missed almost the entire season due to an ankle injury suffered while playing the outfield. The question is why were the Red Sox playing him in the outfield. Reports on his defense at catcher is all over the place, and anytime a catcher has an ankle injury it's a cause for concern. That said, if the Red Sox decide to sell low on Swihart with the surprising emergence of Sandy León and the continued presence in the system of defensive whiz Christian Vazquez, the Braves should take a hard look. While overly-hyped as a prospect as so many Red Sox prospects are, Swihart does have an impressive approach to hitting. Swihart will play at age 25 next season and getting out of the pressure of Boston and pairing him with an accomplished veteran like Flowers could be big for his development. It would not however do much for the projected positional WAR, just maybe a slight bump up to 2 WAR or so; this would be a move more for the long-term.

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38 minutes ago, malak07 said:

Alright any thoughts on what Trade would look like?

A near-MLB ready prospect would probably do it. Someone like Chris Ellis or Lucas Sims. The Braves might need to throw in a major league reliever.

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10 minutes ago, K26dp said:

Brian McCann, Yankees. The future is suddenly now for the Yankees, as prospect Gary Sanchez is the de facto starting catcher. That makes McCann the DH and back-up catcher, an unusual place for a 12-year vet that is owed $34M over the next two seasons and still grades out as an above-average defensive catcher and a league-average hitter. It would seem that a trade should be in the works, and Atlanta's need for a catcher and their familiarity with McCann seems an obvious fit. That said, it's not unreasonable that the Yankees may keep McCann if they don't get perceived value back for him. His salary isn't a major consideration for them, he can be a mentor for Sanchez, and still play every day because of the DH. They could form something of a similar situation as in the mid-90's with Jorge Posada as the primary catcher and Jim F'ing Leyritz as the primary DH and back-up catcher. In short, I'm not sure the Yankees and Braves actually match-up on a deal here, but if they do it would represent a substantial improvement at the position for Atlanta in 2017. Given a 50/50 split in playing time, it would bump the projected WAR total for the position up to near 3. It would also provide some stability to the position and the give the Braves two full seasons to evaluate the young catchers in the system now.

Another consideration for McCann is that he has a full no-trade clause. He may exercise it in order to get some sort of concession, like a guarantee that his 2019 option will get picked up, which could nix any deal.

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Thoughts anyone on catcher?  Will the/Should the Braves value a catcher with strong game calling/receiving skills over hitting prowess seeing as the Braves are loaded with talented but young pitchers who seem to go astray during games?  Is that a value? Does that skill really matter, is it enough to offset any deficiency in hitting?  Because if it does matter, longterm the Braves will be bringing up young pitchers for a few years. It may factor in which catcher they go after.

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Both. The Braves need a good hitting catcher that can bring along young pitchers. This is why I think they keep getting connected to McCann. I think this is why also they'll probably try to go the veteran route instead of a young catcher, unless it's a young catcher they've groomed themselves.

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14 minutes ago, K26dp said:

Both. The Braves need a good hitting catcher that can bring along young pitchers. This is why I think they keep getting connected to McCann. I think this is why also they'll probably try to go the veteran route instead of a young catcher, unless it's a young catcher they've groomed themselves.

McCann would be sweet at the right price 

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1 minute ago, maorifalcon said:

McCann would be sweet at the right price 

Like most McCann as a fan favorite would be fun but based on the cost of his contracts, stipulations of contract/no-trade clause, prospect cost and in my opinion mostly being a platoon type player seems a long bridge to gap. 

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I feel like we really want McCann for his presence and the homecoming factor. If the Yankees budge I think we would pair him with Flowers before signing Ramos. They'll have to budge in a big way from Folty and Ender for McCann and cash but its possible. McCann is clearly behind Sanchez now.

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1 minute ago, Unkn0wn said:

I feel like we really want McCann for his presence and the homecoming factor. If the Yankees budge I think we would pair him with Flowers before signing Ramos. They'll have to budge in a big way from Folty and Ender for McCann and cash but its possible. McCann is clearly behind Sanchez now.

Is that what the asking price was rumored to be... They can go kick rocks wouldn't give up anything other then a solid Bullpen arm and a a couple of 20-40 prospects and half his contract

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Just now, malak07 said:

Is that what the asking price was rumored to be... They can go kick rocks wouldn't give up anything other then a solid Bullpen arm and a a couple of 20-40 prospects and half his contract

Yes, Jon Heyman reported he was hearing they asked for Folty and Ender.

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Yeah let me go grab them a bag of rocks to kick... That's obscene for a guy at the very best will be playing DH for them and occasional spot start at C who is on the back-end of his career. The guy on our team is no more then platoon type player in combination with Flowers bumps our WAR from catcher spot up a few digits.

Folty is slowly developing into at the least a Solid #3 but still shown to have top end starter ceiling and Ender is everyday proven player that this team still desperately needs to be part of a productive lineup over next few years.

I wouldn't deal anything more then like a A.Vizcaino, Chris Ellis and another low-level prospect and they pay half the remaining contract and particular ensure we don't get stuck with his option year.

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13 minutes ago, malak07 said:

Yeah let me go grab them a bag of rocks to kick... That's obscene for a guy at the very best will be playing DH for them and occasional spot start at C who is on the back-end of his career. The guy on our team is no more then platoon type player in combination with Flowers bumps our WAR from catcher spot up a few digits.

Folty is slowly developing into at the least a Solid #3 but still shown to have top end starter ceiling and Ender is everyday proven player that this team still desperately needs to be part of a productive lineup over next few years.

I wouldn't deal anything more then like a A.Vizcaino, Chris Ellis and another low-level prospect and they pay half the remaining contract and particular ensure we don't get stuck with his option year.

Pretty much what I'd pay, maybe send them garcia.

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