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Theprof Projects Atlanta's 2014 Compensatory Draft Picks

- - - - - number of picks and rounds

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#21 Statick

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Posted 05 January 2014 - 06:59 PM

Nice write-up.

#22 atljbo

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Posted 05 January 2014 - 07:17 PM

I think we will get 7th round pick but i do hope you are right

#23 theProf

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Posted 05 January 2014 - 07:49 PM

Thank You.

hjerry thank you for your aid in helping me formulate these opinions re the Falcons compensatory draft possibilities many months ago.

#24 Robb4242

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Posted 05 January 2014 - 08:12 PM

I think it would be fairly difficult to put "voidable" clauses into player contracts. If the contract is voidable before the expiration date by the team, then the player and his agent would probably not want it in the contract. If the contract is voidable before contract expiration by the player, then the team probably would not want it in the contract. Both parties would have to agree to any voidable clauses that could be exercised or take affect before the contract expiration date. There are voidable clauses placed in player contracts, but I think they are the exception not the norm.

agree, but if all teams were to start moving in that direction, then the players & agents have little recourse except to claim collusion. Most examples of collusion are illegal, but not all. I don't know if this would be or not if it doesn't affect the money earned or the opportunity of the player to gain employment with another team. Of course it's probably too much of a headache just for a few compensatory picks.

#25 Robb4242

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Posted 05 January 2014 - 08:14 PM

When I researched the issue the other day, what you note is why a Giants beat writer believed that their team would not benefit in terms of compensation from letting Osi go. The argument he made was more logical to me than the idea that they could benefit from effectively cutting a player. Jackson's situation is even more dramatic because he specifically failed to reach the qualifiers in his contract. The Rams let him go anyway. That's cutting a player. I have to believe that teams are not allowed to manipulate the compensatory system on issues so clear cut.

I am expecting nothing but the logical part of my brain thinks we should not have those two players count against us.

That's the way I feel as well, but there's not much the NFL does that seems logical to me, so I'm sure we'll end up having them count against us.

#26 FALCONSFAN1492

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Posted 05 January 2014 - 08:49 PM

Great post. The whole comp pick thing is like Chinese to me. This was extremely informative.


很好!

#27 Tuggle'2

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Posted 05 January 2014 - 08:50 PM

很好!



lol exacty

#28 atljbo

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Posted 05 January 2014 - 09:10 PM

Again ..i hope you are right because you can get a solid player in the mid round of this draft

#29 theProf

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Posted 06 January 2014 - 09:31 AM

Great post. The whole comp pick thing is like Chinese to me. This was extremely informative.

Thanks. Some basics re the compensatory draft by adamjt that might help your overall understanding and turn the Chinese into English:

"As the NFL explains, compensatory picks are awarded to teams that lose more or better compensatory free agents than they acquire. The number of picks a team can receive equals the net loss of compensatory free agents, up to a maximum of four. Compensatory free agents are determined by a secret formula based on salary, playing time and postseason honors. Not every free agent lost or signed is covered by the formula.

Although the formula has never been revealed, by studying the compensatory picks that have been awarded since they began in 1994, I’ve determined that the primary factor in the value of the picks awarded is the average annual value of the contract the player signed with his new team, with an adjustment for playing time and a smaller adjustment for postseason honors. It should be noted that the contract value used in the equation does not include some parts of the contract, and that the contract information reported in the media is often incorrect.

Each qualifying player has a value based on his contract, playing time and postseason honors, and that value corresponds to a round in the draft. In the compensatory equation, each qualifying player that a team signs cancels out a qualifying player that the team lost whose value is the highest in the same round. If there are no lost players remaining in that round, the signed player cancels out the lost player whose value is the next-highest. A signed player will cancel out a lost player whose value falls in a higher round only if there are no remaining lost players. After all of a team's qualifying signed players have canceled out a lost player, the team can receive a comp pick for each qualifying player who remains.

It is possible for a team to get a compensatory pick even if it doesn’t suffer a net loss of qualifying free agents. That type of comp pick comes at the end of the seventh round, after the normal comp picks and before the non-compensatory picks that are added if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. These “net value” type of comp picks awarded, in each case, the combined value of the free agents lost was significantly higher than the combined value of the free agents added. In all cases, those teams lost the same number of qualifying free agents as they signed. No team has been awarded a comp pick after signing more qualifying free agents than it lost, no matter how significant the difference in combined value.

As I alluded to earlier, the NFL adds non-compensatory picks if fewer than 32 comp picks are awarded. The non-compensatory picks are given, in order, to the teams that would be drafting if there were an eighth round, until the maximum of 32 has been reached. If there are 29 comps, for example, the NFL would give additional picks to the teams that would have the first three picks in the eighth round, if there were one.

In order to qualify for the comp equation, a player must have been a true Unrestricted Free Agent whose contract had expired or was voided after the previous season (i.e., he cannot have been released by his old team); he must sign during the UFA signing period (which ended July 27 last year); if he signs after June 1, he must have been tendered a June 1 qualifying offer by his old team; his compensatory value or contract value must be above a specific minimum amount; and he cannot have been permanently released by his new team before a certain point in the season (which seems to be after Week 10) or, possibly, before getting a certain amount of playing time, unless he was claimed off waivers by another team.

Plenty of players have qualified for the comp equation after becoming UFAs because their contract voided, even if the voidable year was put in the contract through renegotiation. A voidable year has never disqualified a player from the equation.

The most difficult part about projecting the comp picks is determining all of the cutoff points – the minimum value needed to qualify and the value ranges for each round of the draft. The comp picks awarded in previous years suggest that the cutoff points increase each year by a small percentage – approximately the same percentage by which the leaguewide salary cap increases. "


My comment: The following paragraphs by Adamjt is thru the 2009 compensatory draft. Adamjt quit projecting the compensatory draft after 2010. Since the salary cap has not changed that much since then, the following number ranges disclosed by Adamjt in 2010 still have some value as a good starting points:


"Last year, regardless of playing time or postseason honors, the third-round comp players had signed for at least $6.5 million per season, the fourth-round comp players had signed for $4.8 million to $6 million, all but one of the fifth-round comp players had signed for $4 million to $5 million, the sixth-round comp players had signed for $2.7 million to $3.9 million, and the seventh-round comp players had signed for less than $2.65 million per season. Note that there are huge gaps between some rounds, and that there is an overlap between the fourth and fifth rounds because of the adjustments for playing time. You’ll find the contract values for each round of this year’s projected picks in the list a few paragraphs below this one.

I mentioned that all but one of last year's fifth-round comp players had signed for $4 million to $5 million. Because of a rule that had never been revealed until after last year's comp picks were awarded, the Pittsburgh Steelers got only a fifth-round comp pick for Alan Faneca, even though he signed for $7.8 million per season, played more than 98 percent of the Jets' offensive snaps and made the Pro Bowl. A rule stipulates that a team cannot receive more than a fifth-round comp pick for a player with 10 or more seasons of NFL experience.

Last year, the lowest-paid player who is known to have qualified for the NFL’s comp equation was Aaron Glenn, who signed for a one-year deal for $870,000 and played a little less than 20 percent of the snaps in 2008. The highest-paid player who is known to have not qualified was Pierson Prioleau, who signed a one-year deal for $830,000 and also played a little less than 20 percent of the snaps."

http://adamjt13.blog...-nfl-draft.html


One added note: Compensatory draft picks can not be traded.

#30 theProf

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Posted 06 January 2014 - 03:25 PM

When I researched the issue the other day, what you note is why a Giants beat writer believed that their team would not benefit in terms of compensation from letting Osi go. The argument he made was more logical to me than the idea that they could benefit from effectively cutting a player. Jackson's situation is even more dramatic because he specifically failed to reach the qualifiers in his contract. The Rams let him go anyway. That's cutting a player. I have to believe that teams are not allowed to manipulate the compensatory system on issues so clear cut.

I am expecting nothing but the logical part of my brain thinks we should not have those two players count against us.

Through the 2009 compensatory draft picks, no player was disqualified from the compensatory formula due to a voided contract. For the 2010 comp picks, Laveraneous Coles had a special situation involving a voided contract in 2009. Adamjt projected that Coles would count in the comp formula in 2010, but with hesitation. I just checked the actual 2010 compensatory draft picks and Laverneous Coles did NOT count, even though he signed a new 4-year $28m contract with the Bengals in 2009. This was one of the few missed projections by adamjt. So there might be some faint hope that Osi and/or S-jax, both with voided contracts, might not count against the Falcons in the 2014 compensatory draft picks. An excerpt from adamjt's 2010 compensatory draft projection involving voided contracts in general and Coles voided contract specifically:

"There were two unusual cases this year, one involving Laveranues Coles and one involving Bobby Engram. Coles renegotiated his contract on Feb. 25, 2009, giving up a $6 million guaranteed salary in exchange for allowing his 2009 season to void. Two days later, his contract voided, and he became an Unrestricted Free Agent. Plenty of players have qualified for the comp equation after becoming UFAs because their contract voided, even if the voidable year was put in the contract through renegotiation. However, Coles' situation is a little less clear because of the timing involved. Normally, a player "earns" a void in his contract by doing something more than simply waiting two days, so it's possible that the NFL will not consider Coles eligible for the comp picks equation. Players who have had contract years simply deleted not converted to voidable years by renegotiation have never qualified for the equation, and Coles' situation is close to that. However, because a voidable year has never disqualified a player from the equation, I am projecting that Coles will qualify."

http://adamjt13.blog...-nfl-draft.html

#31 shockerfalcon

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Posted 06 January 2014 - 04:34 PM

I think it would be fairly difficult to put "voidable" clauses into player contracts. If the contract is voidable before the expiration date by the team, then the player and his agent would probably not want it in the contract. If the contract is voidable before contract expiration by the player, then the team probably would not want it in the contract. Both parties would have to agree to any voidable clauses that could be exercised or take affect before the contract expiration date. There are voidable clauses placed in player contracts, but I think they are the exception not the norm.

Both P. Manning and Brees have clauses in their current contracts that would allow their teams to Basically void their deals if I'm not mistaken the broncos have a certain amount of time after the super bowl this year to either part ways with manning or pick up the remainder of his contract. The Saints have a similar option next season.

#32 muskokas finest

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Posted 06 January 2014 - 07:08 PM

Atlanta releasaed Abe for cap reasons, which is why many free agents aren't re-signed by their former teams btw. Doesn't make any sense to me not to count Abe as a compensable loss by Atlanta, when we still get to be compensated for players like Owens and Svitec who the Falcons lost to Free Agency.

There are a maximum of 32 picks in the compensatory process. I don't think teams should be rewarded for changing their minds on contracts.

#33 Capitalist

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Posted 06 January 2014 - 08:45 PM

****... Some actual knowledge from AFMB... Instead of Falcons Coaches and Admin suck...

Love it





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