Leon Troutsky

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Everything posted by Leon Troutsky

  1. In before he says, "I have black friends, lots of them, and they all agree with me."
  2. Not at all. There's always going to be 20-30% of the public who support their side no matter what. There's always going to be the same number who oppose the other side no matter what. But it's the independents and soft partisans who aren't lockstep with their side that matters, and they're not going to buy the argument he's making. Also, the border wall itself is rather unpopular. So attacking Democrats for blocking something most people don't want isn't a winning strategy and just makes him look weak and ineffective.
  3. Good luck with that. Republicans own everything now. They are going to get the blame for everything they do or don't do. The political reality has finally caught up to their fantasyland rhetoric.
  4. It is a shame. But ultimately, he went off the deep end and got dragged into the insane conspiracy theories and other idiocy from the Trump campaign. And he chose to outright lie about his payments, apparently. The sad thing is that it appears to be completely unavoidable. He could have gotten permission and then disclosed the information. He went nutjob conspiracy theory instead and apparently he's going to be facing criminal charges as a result.
  5. CNN reporting that Michael Flynn was explicitly warned in 2014 that he couldn't take payments from foreign governments without permission from Secretary of State's office. Declassified documents apparently prove he did not get permission nor did he disclose it on his security clearance forms. And the Inspector General has just opened an investigation into Flynn's lack of disclosure about the foreign payments. Seems like they are closing in on the first Trump administration person to face criminal charges. Ironic that it's Michael "Lock her up" Flynn.
  6. Republicans have for years said they would repeal Obamacare. Romney and Trump both said "on day one" they would repeal it. The party leadership has promoted a "stem and root" approach that involves wholesale repeal. Now that they're in power, they are confronting the political reality that doing it will be far more difficult than saying they will do it on the campaign trail. So let's look at the political reality. To start with, in the Senate, there are as many as nine Republicans who are insisting on a replacement plan before repealing Obamacare. It's unlikely that a full repeal can pass the Senate at this point unless there is a detailed plan to replace it. It only takes three GOP senators voting against the bill for it to fail. And again, nine have openly expressed skepticism at the notion of a repeal without replacement. Why would GOP senators not support a full repeal plan? Aside from the chaos it would create, there's also the political reality that their campaign rhetoric has never squared with the beliefs of the American public. First, the law itself is not as unpopular as they think and, in fact, support for Obamacare is about equally divided. http://pollingreport.com/health.htm Kaiser's most recent poll shows the split to be 43% favorable and 46% unfavorable. CBS and Pew ask if people "approve" of the law and the law is slightly more popular here. CBS shows 47% approve and 41% disapprove. Pew has it as 48% approve and 47% disapprove. All of the polls show similar splits in support/opposition to the ACA. Second, the notion of repealing the law has never been popular. Kaiser poll has 49% of people supporting repeal and 46% opposed. But, among that 49% who favor "repeal", only 20% favor repealing immediately while 28% favor a replacement. CBS polls asked a similar questions - should Congress keep the law, change the law, or repeal the law entirely. 10% said keep the law, 62% said change the law, and only 24% said repeal entirely. Pew has a similar breakdown with 39% supporting expanding the law, 15% support keeping it as-is, and 39% support repealing it. Though again, the last response also includes people who want to replace the law. Moreover, Kaiser has been asking a question about repealing, expanding, keeping as-is, and scaling it back for several years. Repeal was never popular in their poll, with support ranging from 27-35%. Expanding was almost as popular as repeal while support for keeping the ACA "as-is" ranged from 15-23%, and scaling back stayed in the low to mid-teens. Third, where Republicans have benefited is the very low support for keeping the law "as-is" or not doing anything with the law. The vast majority of people want to see changes to the law, but about the same number want to see MORE government involvement (e.g., "expanding") as want to see less ("repeal entirely"). And the overwhelming majority of people want to see some changes to the law versus no change or complete repeal without a replacement. So the political reality is the public has never supported the "repeal on day one" and "pull it out root and stem" rhetoric by Republicans over the years. Support for the law is evenly divided and there's no significant trends in either direction. Precisely because support for the law is evenly divided, the notion of entirely repealing the law has never been popular with the public. The Republicans do not even have a solid majority of the public supporting the basic ideological notion underlying their repeal rhetoric...a slight majority say that providing health care to Americans is a responsibility of the federal government. Both Gallup and Pew showed 51-52% of the public saying it's the federal government's responsibility. And Gallup has asked that question for at least the past 16 years and the numbers have bounced around considerably, but the lowest percentage saying that healthcare is a government responsibility was 42% in 2013 and that number has climbed every year since (it's not at 52%). This is the political reality that is crashing into the GOP's "repeal on day one" rhetoric and it's why they almost immediately abandoned that rhetoric after the election. It's also why their new "repeal and delay' approach is going to have a hard time passing in the Senate. They are trapped right now between needing at least a symbolic vote to "repeal" the law in the next month or so and the reality that an actual repeal (or delay) is going to be unpopular with the American public. And if they abandon the symbolic vote early and spend the first several months working on a viable replacement, they risk angering their base supporters who were promised repeal on "day one" by the GOP leaders and Trump himself.
  7. That has to be a concerted troll effort. If not, it's pretty awesome.
  8. He folds like the cheap suits that he sells.
  9. Thought we could use a thread about the special elections that'll be happening in the next weeks and months. First up, the Kansas 4th District. Live results are here: http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html The Democratic candidate is winning, but it's only 1% of the precincts reporting so it doesn't mean anything this early.
  10. These people aren't living on bulls*** mountain. They ARE bulls*** mountain.
  11. So two days left to get the budget bill done. Any progress?
  12. And also most people who understand how government works.
  13. It's almost like you can't run government like a business. Who knew?
  14. Well, that didn't last long. Trump just folded like a cheap suit on funding for the border wall. I thought he was supposed to be some kind of brilliant negotiator. Seems like his entire negotiating strategy boils down to: "I WANT THIS!!! GIVE ME THIS!!! Oh wait...you won't give me that? Okay, fine, I'll just move along."
  15. You know what we always say...liars gonna lie.
  16. JFC...Snake mentions "minority based worship". Drake points that out. Snake pretends he doesn't know what it means. Drake quotes the post where he used that term. Snake says he explained it and says Drake didn't understand. "I explained this thing I pretended not to know that I said and you can't understand this thing that I pretended to know nothing about even though I am the one who used the term." How dumb can one person be?
  17. An executive agreement between the President and another country can be withdrawn by the president unilaterally. But I think NAFTA is an executive-congressional agreement, so I wonder if it's as simple as an executive order. Unless the Senate agrees to withdraw by not challenging Trump, but I'm not sure the likelihood of that. I also stumbled across this article and thought it was...interesting...considering where it originated. The North American Free Trade Agreement: Ronald Reagan's Vision Realized November 23, 1993 The approval by the Congress of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is a victory of engagement and competition over withdrawal and complacency. The trade pact, which will eliminate tariffs on goods and services between the United States, Canada, and Mexico over a fifteen-year time span, will create the world's largest market: some 360 million people, with an economic output of more than $6 trillion a year. The NAFTA thus guarantees that American workers will remain the most competitive in the world and that American consumers will continue to have access to the world's finest goods and services.
  18. Thanks. I wonder what the over/under is on this being just another bluff that Trump doesn't have the guts to back up. Like the "take it or leave it" Obamacare repeal.
  19. I know that NAFTA was voted on by Congress. Does Trump even have the power to withdraw via executive order? I honestly don't know.
  20. See what I'm talking about?
  21. Yeah, Laffer's ideas worked out so well in Kansas. Oh wait...
  22. What a raging hypocrite. Also, if I were other Republicans, I wouldn't listen to Ted Cruz when it comes to messenging strategy. He's the one that thought shutting down the government and threatening to default on the debt was a good idea.
  23. Highlighting his stupidity and mocking him. I doubt anybody expects legitimate discourse with this guy. That too.
  24. Also, Trump's corporate tax cuts are going to cost $4 trillion. I thought Republicans were concerned about the debt.